Going into the World Cup, I saw nothing to say I'd been wrong. I know others will disagree but the quality was not there to win the World Cup regardless of who was coach. The team could and should have done a lot better but the win felt impossible. Most of England's players are as good as most of anyone else's players, by and large, but none of them are as good as the very best, and none of them have that vast store of experience when aids performance in huge games. Our opponents do not have that issue and therefore, in general, I'd back them in tight games. The only flaw I saw in my argument was that England were at home - a big advantage - and that there was a potentially easy route to the final if we topped our group (ho ho ho).
Reading various quotes of his, it seems Stuart Lancaster agrees with me up to a point, the point being he still thought it was doable. It has been well publicised that he was looking for about six hundred caps in the starting fifteen by the World Cup, believing that to be the right level of experience. More recently, he was quoted as saying the following:
"It's hard to make selections when you have an inexperienced team and bringing more inexperience in".
When I read that, I felt simultaneously sympathetic and exasperated. On the one hand, this chimes with what I felt. On the other hand, it's a bit rich for the guy handing out the caps to complain that the players he wants don't have enough. No one forced him to pick Henry Slade and Sam Burgess in the squad. Reading these words made me reconsider what I'd thought and the obvious flaw in it. We do not have the squad - I believe that. Might we have had the squad? I thought it was impossible but that does not mean I was right. After all, Stuart Lancaster thought that six hundred caps was doable. I've pointed at the development of Chris Robshaw compared to Chris Henry and Sean O'Brien - have any other players not developed as they might have perhaps? And on the other foot, how many potentially key players have we lost unexpectedly?
Answering these questions starts with looking at what Lancaster inherited. This is Johnson's last squad:
Dan Cole (Leicester Tigers) Alex Corbisiero (London Irish) Tom Croft (Leicester Tigers) Louis Deacon (Leicester Tigers) Nick Easter (Harlequins) Dylan Hartley (Northampton Saints) James Haskell (Ricoh Black Rams) Courtney Lawes (Northampton Saints) Lee Mears (Bath Rugby) Lewis Moody (Bath Rugby) Tom Palmer (Stade Francais) Simon Shaw (Unattached) Andrew Sheridan (Sale Sharks) Matt Stevens (Saracens) Steve Thompson (London Wasps) David Wilson (Bath Rugby) Tom Wood (Northampton Saints), Thomas Waldrom (Leicester Tigers) (IR)
Backs
Delon Armitage (London Irish) Chris Ashton (Northampton Saints) Matt Banahan (Bath Rugby) Mark Cueto (Sale Sharks) Toby Flood (Leicester Tigers) Ben Foden (Northampton Saints) Shontayne Hape (London Irish) Joe Simpson (London Wasps) Mike Tindall (Gloucester Rugby) Manu Tuilagi (Leicester Tigers) Richard Wigglesworth (Saracens) Jonny Wilkinson (Toulon) Ben Youngs (Leicester Tigers)
Most people remember it as a dad's army type of squad, with only a degree of fairness. Certainly, there were plenty of old men. Andrew Sheridan, Lewis Moody, Simon Shaw, Steve Thompson, Mark Cueto, Shontayne Hape, Mike Tindall and Jonny Wilkinson were all over 30 and never involved with England again. Louis Deacon and Lee Mears were likewise over 30 and soon joined them while Nick Easter appeared destined for this category until very late on. Only Tom Palmer had any major involvement for England again and he was was done by 2013. 12 players over the age of 30 seems excessive but outlier Australia aside, no Tier 1 nation had less than 7, France and Ireland had the most with 14, and half of them had ten or more. England were old, but not outrageously so. No side had so many players in this age bracket simply stop being involved though. However, it wasn't just veterans who were either axed or walked away. Armitage, Banahan and Simpson have yet to play another game for England. Stevens retired after the 2012 6N. Barring the tour to Argentina when the Lions were away, Wigglesworth didn't play again until Autumn 2014. Between one thing and another, only 7 forwards - Cole, Easter, Hartley, Haskell, Lawes, Wilson, Wood - and 2 backs - Wigglesworth, Youngs - made it to the next World Cup.
So who did Lancaster use? Here are the EPS and Saxons squads from 2012
Forwards: Mouritz Botha (Saracens) Calum Clark (Northampton Saints) Alex Corbisiero (London Irish) Dan Cole (Leicester Tigers) Tom Croft (Leicester Tigers) Louis Deacon (Leicester Tigers) Phil Dowson (Northampton Saints) Dylan Hartley (Northampton Saints) Courtney Lawes (Northampton Saints) Joe Marler (Harlequins) Lee Mears (Bath Rugby) Ben Morgan (Scarlets) Tom Palmer (Stade Francais) Chris Robshaw (Harlequins) Matt Stevens (Saracens) Rob Webber (London Wasps) David Wilson (Bath Rugby) Tom Wood (Northampton Saints)
BACKS (14)
Chris Ashton (Northampton Saints) Brad Barritt (Saracens) Mike Brown (Harlequins) Lee Dickson (Northampton Saints) Owen Farrell (Saracens) Toby Flood (Leicester Tigers) Ben Foden (Northampton Saints) Charlie Hodgson (Saracens) Joe Simpson (London Wasps) Charlie Sharples (Gloucester Rugby) David Strettle (Saracens) Manusamoa Tuilagi (Leicester Tigers) Jordan Turner-Hall (Harlequins) Ben Youngs (Leicester Tigers)
FORWARDS (18)
David Attwood (Bath Rugby) Chris Brooker (Harlequins) Paul Doran Jones (Northampton Saints) Matt Garvey (London Irish) James Gaskell (Sale Sharks) Jamie Gibson (London Irish) Joe Gray (Harlequins) Tom Johnson (Exeter Chiefs) Joe Launchbury (London Wasps) Matt Mullan (Worcester Warriors) Luke Narraway (Gloucester Rugby) David Paice (London Irish) Geoff Parling (Leicester Tigers) George Robson (Harlequins) Andrew Saull (Saracens) Henry Thomas (Sale Sharks) Thomas Waldrom (Leicester Tigers) Nick Wood (Gloucester Rugby)
BACKS (14)Nick Abendanon (Bath Rugby) Anthony Allen (Leicester Tigers) Delon Armitage (London Irish) Matt Banahan (Bath Rugby) Freddie Burns (Gloucester Rugby) Karl Dickson (Harlequins) Alex Goode (Saracens) Jonathan Joseph (London Irish) Ryan Lamb (Northampton Saints) Jonny May (Gloucester Rugby) Ugo Monye (Harlequins) Henry Trinder (Gloucester Rugby) Billy Twelvetrees (Leicester Tigers) Micky Young (Leicester Tigers)
The first thing to note is there is some real quality available there. The second thing to note is there are a few who do not quite match this assessment.
If we're talking about the starting point of Lancaster's project, then there are 8 forwards - Cole, Lawes, Marler, Morgan, Robshaw, Webber, Wilson, Wood - and 4 backs - Barritt, Brown, Farrell, Youngs - from that original EPS in the squad.They are joined by 2 forwards - Launchbury, Parling - and 3 backs - Goode, Joseph, May - from the Saxons squad, none of them with prior international experience. It should be noted at this point that Parling did play in that Six Nations as an injury replacement for Louis Deacon. Others were involved in the build up camp (some very briefly): Clark, Corbisiero, Croft, Hartley; Ashton, Dickson, Foden, Simpson, Strettle; Attwood, Mullan; Twelvetrees. Ed Slater was also added to the Saxons during February 2012. So that's 17 players from the World Cup squad that Lancaster used in some form in 2012, with another 13 that were in his thoughts. That's close to a World Cup squad right there numbers wise. Of these 30, 16 had prior international experience, but only 7 of these players made the final cut.
So where the rest of his World Cup training squad at this point?
Lancaster has flagged the inexperienced nature of his squad Of those already mentioned, Farrell, Launchbury and Joseph were all 20 and under at the time. So too were the following 10 members of his WC training squad: Nowell, Watson, Yarde, Daly, Slade, Ford, Cowan-Dickie, Itoje, Kvesic, Vunipola. Wait, scratch that, they were all 19. It would be ridiculous to blame him for not including 19 year olds at that point. All had the talent to be involved come the end - 5 made the final squad and there was anger that Daly, Itoje and Kvesic missed out - which vindicates Lancaster's point that many of his best players were very young at the start. Kieran Brookes, Jamie George and Mako Vunipola deserve to be added to these ranks, as they were 21 and very young for the front row. George Kruis was 22 and therefore sneaks into this category as well.
Danny Care, James Haskell and Danny Cipriani were not young bucks at the time, but between Care's internal suspension for pissing on the steps of a Leeds hotel and the location of the latter two in Super Rugby, none were included. Given the events of the 2011 World Cup, not too many would quibble with the former, and fewer would quibble with the latter. Nick Easter was also omitted at this point, due to age, misdemeanours, or both. Luther Burrell was playing somewhat indifferently for Sale, with no one calling for his inclusion, while even fewer were calling for Tom Youngs as he converted from centre to hooker off of Leicester's bench - his rapid promotion in the summer of 2012 being one of the notable triumphs of Lancaster's time. Kyle Eastmond had only just swapped codes, joining Bath in 2011, while I doubt Burgess had even considered it yet. That just leaves Richard Wigglesworth and Stephen Myler as the odd omissions, as both were ready to play a part if Lancaster required, which seems a reasonably low rate of error.
Lancaster started with over half of his World Cup training squad in place, with Care and Haskell swiftly rejoining the fold, and Wigglesworth, Easter and Myler available if he'd wished. About 30% of the squad were too young. That is a high number: 10 of Ireland's 45 man World Cup squad were 20 or under during the 2012 Six Nations as well. Only 9 players made it from the last World Cup; low compared to Ireland's 14. The problems do not seem insurmountable at this point but the number of 9 survivors seems very low given how many of them were involved in the 2012 Six Nations and they do show the inexperienced nature of the playing pool Lancaster was using in 2015.
There is no doubt he'd have preferred the number to be higher, both in general and when considering the players. Alex Corbisiero seemed destined to be the best loosehead prop in the world when playing a key role for the Lions in 2013, but heavy injuries have hit him so hard it's questionable whether he'll play for England again. Dylan Hartley could have been alongside him had he kept his discipline that year and repeated his party trick in 2015 to be dropped from the World Cup squad. Tom Croft was on that 2013 tour and played a test despite struggling with injuries; more serious ones have seriously restricted his playing time over the last four years and led to him missing out on the Colorado trip.
In the backs, Manu Tuilagi has managed to combine both the sins of being injured and, well, sinning, his suspension for assaulting a policewoman putting the cap on a fairly miserable four years for 2011's breakout star. Ben Foden, described as the first name on the team sheet back then, has struggled for form due to injuries and missed out on the training squad due to another. His partner in crime, Chris Ashton, racked up plenty of appearances under Lancaster, but the end result has been nothing but frustration for all concerned. Joe Simpson was in the squad and as noted, never played. It simply hasn't happened for Simpson and just when it looked like doing so, he also got injured and missed out on Colorado. Then there's Toby Flood, who might just be the one Lancaster regrets most. He played a few games in between being injured before deciding to go to France in 2013. Many fans lack fond memories of the player known as Jug Ears but in terms of raw experience, his 60 caps outweigh everyone in the squad bar Haskell. People focus on Steffon Armitage when discussing the protectionist policy, but Flood would have also been under consideration, as too would have Steffon's brother if not for his, ah, temperament issues.
Obviously, life happens and every coach has to accept events outside his control. Warren Gatland wouldn't have asked for Adam Jones to finally run out of steam and retire in a huff just before the World Cup. Steve Hansen probably didn't want Zac Guildford to be an alcoholic, or for Robbie Fruean to be so fragile. Ewen McKenzie's list of 'Do Not Wants' cost him his job while Heineke Meyer could be forgiven for frustrations over the South African injury list going into this tournament. Joe Schmidt would probably prefer Stephen Ferris to no Stephen Ferris, prefer that the Ulster centre curse didn't exist, that the much missed Nevin Spence was still with us. I could expand this list without doubt with more time spent remembering and researching. England's list of woes still seems pretty harsh though, before even considering the long-ago 'what-ifs' of Tom Rees, James Forrester, James Simpson-Daniel and the late Nick Duncombe.
There is a counter-balance to this of course. Hansen has taken along Waisake Naholo, despite him not being fully fit, because he believed in him. Schmidt has done the same with Cian Healy and Gatland with Samson Lee. All over the World Cup, at every international window, there are coaches taking chances and making allowances for the players they believe are truly important. Lord Baldermort knew Richard Hill wasn't going to be fit until the Quarter-Final in 2003, but took him anyway. If Lancaster had truly Croft or Foden, they'd be in. If he truly wanted Hartley, then the risk of having a prop cover hooker against Fiji would not have stopped him. We have seen Lancaster hurl Croft back in on barely any time before, seen him do it with Corbisiero and Twelvetrees. This time he didn't - but the decisions would have been more clear-cut and easy without the injury problems.
Still, Lancaster has been unfortunate both in timing and injury when building his squad. Whether his choices could have affected the injuries is unknown but unlikely. He could however have chosen to delay introduction of the kids and rely on older players who not only could have gained more experience, but might have offered greater impact, if not at the World Cup itself, then in winning the Six Nations before hand and establishing a culture of success. It should be remembered that the poor state of the England team that Lancaster inherited was partially due to such policies but I would state, with absolute belief, that picking for the present day and picking for the future are neither good nor bad things in and of themselves. It is how you execute those policies that matter. I would also state, given the potential offered by a home World Cup, it should have been the goal every step of the way, but that it is a treacherous journey and sometimes short-term expedients are needed to keep travelling forwards. Of course, there were also futile selections of these short-term expedients who took up opportunities to gain experience without offering anything of use. It is a fine line to tread and unfair to expect perfection.
There was other internationals that Lancaster could have called upon in his time in the job who would have added a little more experience towards the total. It's already been mentioned that Delon Armitage, Joe Simpson and Matt Banahan weren't used, with Wigglesworth only coming back into favour later. Looking at those 2012 squads reveals a few more names. Charlie Hodgson probably did more than any to earn Lancaster his job that Six Nations but was informed he would not be needed going forwards and retired; he was still performing for Saracens last season, although whether he would have if enduring test rugby as well is questionable. David Paice picked up a few caps to add to his collection in 2012 and had the talent when not being a yellow card magnet; an undesirable trait in an international. Current team mate Luke Narraway never really got going as an international. Thomas Waldrom scored a hatful of tries for Exeter last year but has never had a sniff with the current set-up. Anthony Allen retired last season due to injury and former Lion Ugo Monye has also just hung up his boots. Outside the squad there were a few more names, guys with smatterings of international experience like Nick Kennedy, Paul Hodgson, Shane Geraghty, Jordan Crane, Nick Abendanon, then France based Magnus Lund, and the prodigal son Danny Cipriani, then in Australia and little used since his return. The only man outside the squad at that point who was young enough with significant international experience never to be used, however, was Mathew Tait, who still has more caps than all but 9 of the current England squad.
While there are a few big regrets in that list, it mainly serves to illustrate what Lancaster was working with. Mostly he got the right players in to begin with. There are a few on that list who deserved more but were unlucky with injury; a few who had the talent but were their own worse enemy; a few who took a long time to pin down their core skills. Of those based in England, only four were really playing at a level this year that suggested they could add to this England squad - Simpson, Cipriani, Tait and Waldrom. There are arguments against the four as well as against and Simpson, as noted, had his chances of last minute victory sabotaged by injury. I would have personally backed only Cipriani and Tait for bigger roles over the last few years; some might back all four or none of them. Right or wrong though, if Lancaster was worried about an inexperienced team, these players were there; only Simpson would have offered less experience than the incumbents.
One thing a coach can do if worried about inexperience is to concentrate the caps between as few players as possible when building the team. At first glance, the news that Lancaster used 72 players does not fit this. There are certainly a fair few players where you wonder what on earth he was smoking, such as the whole-hearted and lovable Mouritz Botha, who sadly just wasn't that suited. This number is misleading though for if you count up the players used by other Tier 1 nations since the last World Cup, you find the average is in fact 75.5 and that Lancaster's used slightly less than most. The lowest number of players used is by New Zealand with 63, testament to the very strong XV still in place post-2011. Lancaster hasn't really gone down more dead ends than most coaches.
Am I changing my mind here at all? It is difficult to say. What England started with is stronger than I remember, with a large number of players at the start of exciting international careers, many of whom had been part of a Six Nations win (albeit unconvincing) and a win in the Southern Hemisphere. They could have been the core of an exciting new team and that many of them have fallen by the wayside has as much to do with injury and bad fortune as it does to do with selection. The result has been the accelerated selection of a possibly golden generation and a very inexperienced leadership group. There are no Rory Bests or Kieran Reads, nevermind Paul O'Connells or Ritchie McCaws. It is difficult to win big games in that situation, although not impossible. Lancaster does have valid grounds for complaint here. There are also valid grounds for complaint that he did not do enough to get such veterans as he had into his team.
What of development though? It is difficult to remember now just how eager people were to see more of players like Robshaw and Tom Wood back in 2012. They were the form flankers in the Premiership, men who charged into contact with sting. The years seems to have removed that and what have they added to their games? I've already mentioned my frustration that Chris Robshaw did not become a proper openside flanker while Tom Wood has lagged even more except for conceding penalties. He's lost weight since then and you can tell - that has been at the request of the England management in their quest to play the game at All Blacks levels of speed. They currently form part of England's leadership group but it seems doubtful as to whether a new England coach would want anything to do with them. There's plenty of other players with once-strong reputations who've never developed their weaknesses - Brad Barritt and his carrying and distribution; Danny Care and his kicking; Chris Ashton and everything bar scoring tries. Why is Ben Youngs' passing still so ropey? Why does George Kruis enter rucks so high? Some players, such as Jonny May and Joe Marler (pre-World Cup), have ironed out weaknesses in the England environment, but they seem to be minority.
Lancaster has been failed by the playing pool but it has gone both ways. No international coach is ever given the perfect player and some degree of development is expected, particularly over the three and a half years Lancaster had. He may not have started with many international heavyweights but it is not unreasonable to suggest he should have ended with some. Not only has he not done so, but many of the players with him in the beginning seem lesser players now than when they begun. Player fatigue and changing game plans accounts for some of that; a head coach should be expected to overcome that however. It is unfair to blame Lancaster totally for this as there many factors in the development of an England player, most notably their club coach and the player themselves. At best though that means he is helpless in the face of greater powers.
Ultimately, I stick by my belief that the situation in 2011 greatly impeded, if not outright prevented, success in 2015; even if everything had gone right from there, that side's peak would have been around 2017, with 2019 the possible last huzzah for many of them. It's far from completely Lancaster's fault that not everything did go right. The catastrophic one-off of the World Cup aside, it is questionable whether Lancaster even underperformed. I would say he did by a small margin - a Six Nations win was very possible - although the margin is small enough that I could be wrong. He did not overperform though, that is for definite, and I would strongly criticise the idea that a man who is capable of hitting par at best is suitable material for England's longest serving coach, as will happen if he is not removed from post. We started the last World Cup cycle with a fair amount of deadwood who'd been hogging all the caps without particularly justifying it in the preceding years, a handful of experienced guys to build a team around, and a number of bright young things who might have been the future. The scenario does not appear to have changed radically as too many players have gone straight from bright young things to deadwood. Again, I am not sure the man who has overseen this is suitable material to be the English head coach. For Lancaster to keep his job, he should need to be very persuasive that he has learned on these scores, and to keep it for any length of time, should demonstrate this very quickly.
p.s.
This will be quite a lengthy post script. The article has concentrated mainly on what Lancaster was given and what he has used. It has alluded to wider problems in English rugby without touching on them substantially.
Let us be bald about it - English rugby has not produced a World Class player since the heroes of 2003. It is an astonishing record that reflects poorly on just about everyone involved.
There have been a number of steps taken to correct this from minis to Saxons. The RFU and the Premiership clubs set up academies in 2001 and these bodies have refined and strengthened their processes since then. Links have been set up with friendly schools and the best youngsters funnelled there. Harlequins, to use an example, have development groups as young as U13. Coaches such as Richard Hill have been mentoring our best young professional talents. A swarm of coaching development officers have been deployed.
We have seen progress. England's age grade teams have been consistently strong in recent years with a number of Junior World Cup final appearances and wins in 2013 and 2014. While there are many factors involved in that, one of them is sheer player quality. There are a number of outstanding prospects in English rugby - and there are a number of players who were once outstanding prospects who developed. It does not build confidence in the future.
So far, the Premiership clubs have failed to take any of these prospects and turn them into a World Class player. A few players appear to be on the verge but we have been there before. If England are to fulfil their international potential, then the final steps of player development must improve. I suspect better coaching, less time in the gym and more on the paddock, and stronger reffing of the breakdown would be good initial steps here, although I'll admit to being less that informed when it comes to the final details of coaching Premiership rugby players. Whatever improvements are needed though, can only come with the agreement of Premiership chairmen and coaches. Hopefully, when the RFU and PRL next meet, they can discuss how to further improve English players, for there is clearly room for improvement and there can be no issue where the interests of the two are more closely aligned.
p.p.s.
In fairness, backing the right player can be a difficult task. To illustrate, these are the players I thought wrongly omitted from the 2012 squads:
George Lowe, Miles Benjamin, Ed Slater, Rob Miller, JSD, Tom Guest, Dave Seymour, Kearnan Myall, Jamie George
On the one hand, I am a Jamie George visionary. On the other, Guest and Myall? Uhm... yeah. In my defence, I was talking about Saxons as well as senior. The most striking thing about this list to me however is just how many of them have suffered really bad injuries; Lowe, Benjamin, Slater, Seymour and the king of frailty himself, James Simpson-Daniel. Bad fortune can mock any prediction. More wrong than right though.
Oh well. At least I wasn't a Rory Clegg advocate...
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