Australia vs England 1st test preview

TEAMS

Australia: 15 Israel Folau, 14 Dane Haylett-Petty, 13 Tevita Kuridrani, 12 Samu Kerevi, 11 Rob Horne, 10 Bernard Foley, 9 Nick Phipps, 8 David Pocock, 7 Michael Hooper, 6 Scott Fardy, 5 Rob Simmons, 4 Rory Arnold, 3 Greg Holmes, 2 Stephen Moore (captain), 1 Scott Sio

Substitutes:16 Tatafu Polota-Nau, 17 James Slipper, 18 Sekope Kepu, 19 James Horwill, 20 Dean Mumm, 21 Sean McMahon, 22 Nick Frisby, 23 Christian Leali'ifano.

England: 15 Mike Brown, 14 Anthony Watson, 13 Jonathan Joseph, 12 Luther Burrell, 11 Marland Yarde, 10 Owen Farrell, 9 Ben Youngs, 8 Billy Vunipola, 7 James Haskell, 6 Chris Robshaw, 5 George Kruis, 4 Maro Itoje, 3 Dan Cole, 2 Dylan Hartley (captain), 1 Mako Vunipola

Substitutes: 16 Luke Cowan-Dickie, 17 Matt Mullan, 18 Paul Hill, 19 Joe Launchbury, 20 Courtney Lawes, 21 Danny Care, 22 George Ford, 23 Jack Nowell

Well, Eddie Jones has been promising to physically test the Australian team, and it looks like he'll be as good as his word. In comes Luther Burrell to provide the hard running option in the centres. In comes Marland Yarde, England's most powerful wing touring, in place of Jack Nowell. The rumoured selection of Itoje at blindside won't happen at the start of the match but with both Launchbury and Lawes on the bench, it is a strong probability to have occurred by the end. And near forgotten, but Mako Vunipola's elevation to a starting berth in Marler's absence also provides another carrier.

The problem with this tactic becomes obvious though when you take a look at the Australian team. Folau and both centres are over 16 stone, with young Samu Kerevi weighing in at 17. None of the other backs are small for their position. The pack, well, it is a standard sized pack until you get to the back row. Pocock and Hooper are a little on the small side, maybe, depending on which stats you believe, but they are unquestionably strong men by anyone's standards. If you let Pocock get set over a ball, good luck getting it off. If you let Hooper get a head of steam carrying, good luck denying him the gain line.

Does this look like a team afraid of a physical battle? Their combined team weight might actually be higher than the English (for whatever that's worth) and they spend their entire rugby careers preparing for the Boks' bludgeoning approach to rugby and the never-ending stream of power runners coming out of New Zealand.

To succeed at physically grinding the Australians down and notching up a win here would be highly impressive. Not only is this Australian team very physical looking, but its hard to  find a weakness to get at. The scrum? Possible, but recent results show not many get an advantage there against the Wallabies. If anything, given Mako Vunipola's career as a starting international prop, it might be England who end up in trouble. The line out? Australia have turned up with three primary line out jumpers to England's two and given that Rory Arnold is 6' 10", Stephen Moore will have to have a pretty bad day for that to go wrong. The break down? Don't be ridiculous. 

It's possible that Kerevi, being 22 year olds and new to this level, might make a few bad defensive reads. That would be a huge advantage. There also might be some joy in kicking into space and letting Watson, Yarde and Joseph hunt it down although Folau is perfectly capable of turning a match from just one loose kick and chase. Speaking of Joseph, Kuridrani is a fine player but mightn't be too happy if put in a one on one with Joseph, so there's that too. But with Farrell the only distributor in the back line, that may not occur.

Presented in this light, maybe the head on physical battle is the safest route. Run head first into Pocock and Hooper with plenty of support so they can't steal the ball. Use the Vunipolas to suck in an extra player so that when Youngs darts at the guards and looks for his forwards, the forwards can run into gaps and force the gain line. Pick and go every time there's not a guard. I would have preferred to see Ford kept in as an additional distributor and territorial kicker to keep the Australian defensive line honest rather than bunched up waiting for the traffic and, while recognising Itoje's future is best served at lock, I'd have pushed him into blindside for this series to get more ball carriers on the pitch. But that doesn't mean this team can't make what they have work. 

The Grand Slam was a bit easy. Ireland and Wales were at low ebb and away from home. The French are rebuilding. And I can't even take Scotland and Italy seriously at this moment in time. The arguments against Lancaster were based on awareness that the Six Nations was there for the taking and its only got easier.

There is nothing easy or there for the taking aboutAustralia. Now we get to measure Eddie Jones' team against the best. So let us make our judgements after the fact, rather than before, and enjoy the ride.

But if you were to force me to make a prediction? I don't see this England team beating Australia. It will be nice to be wrong.