England AI Preview

Lets start this with an odd statement: the more injuries England get, the more interested I am in these Autumn Internationals.

Not that I lacked interest, you understand. All international rugby is good international rugby and England have a complete an unbeaten calender year. The thing is that this year has come a little easy by the standards of international rugby. England’s main opponents in that time period - Wales, Ireland, Australia - were all below their usual standard. I don’t want to dismiss the impact of England’s pressure game and ferocity on them - good teams make other teams look bad - but all three of them had recently shown they could play better at this level.

It is a firm belief of mine that looking good as a coach is relatively easy when things are going well. Eddie Jones inherited a strong team where the main problems were morale, direction, and that last little bit of star quality. All he had to do was give them the first two and reap a waiting harvest with the latter; England have been crying out for a tight five ball carrier like Maro Itoje for a long, long time. Things have, by and large, gone well for him.

Not so much now. England had been fairly injury free in the first choice 23 since Jones took over. The loss of the first choice locks and wingers, as well as the injury to Haskell and just about everyone who may have replaced him, puts a very different complexion on things. And as a cherry on top, Joseph has dropped onto the bench amid reports of a groin injury. 

I don’t want to overdo this argument. Jones’ unfamiliarity with his squad led him to a couple of iffy choices down in Australia and he made his own good fortune with his ruthlessness in changing what wasn’t working. And by and large, the men coming into the squad as injury replacements are highly talented players in their own right. This is a weakened England team but not a weak one. Nevertheless, I feel that we’ll have a better idea of just how good an England coach Jones is after this autumn.

The injury count could have been worse mind. There were doubts over Mako Vunipola and Hartley coming into this series - the presence of Tommy Taylor in the 25 squad prior to the final cull testament to the latter. Instead they’ll line up with Dan Cole against South Africa. On the bench are men who could have replaced them with zero fuss and will replace them with zero fuss during the second half. I’d even go so far as to say I’d prefer if Marler and George replaced Vunipola and Hartley in the starting team full stop. Kyle Sinckler has earned far less trust and it will be interesting to see how he goes. He’s an international class athlete - the question is whether he’s an international class prop. Don’t be surprised if Dan Cole plays a very long shift.

Joe Launchbury and Courtney Lawes fall more into the trusted variety of replacement. Indeed, I wish Jones played Launchbury a lot more. However, with Itoje being the all action man who has sparked England’s renaissance, and Kruis installed as lineout general, it will be a difficult task for man to keep their shirt. Dave Attwood returns to the bench and it will be interesting to see how he slots into Jones’ game plan. I came to the conclusion that Attwood simply wasn’t mobile enough for international rugby when Lancaster was in charge; others saw Attwood as harshly done by and providing the bulk that could have transformed England’s pack. The two opinions aren’t completely mutually exclusive and if Jones wants Attwood to cover less ground, we could see the best of the Bath lock.

In the back row, Tom Wood completes what was a very unlikely seeming reunion with Robshaw and Billy Vunipola at the start of Jones’ tenure. This is the man described by Uncle Eddie as ‘average’ and the man had a point. The rebuttal is that being an average international player is incredibly difficult, as witnessed by the lack of alternatives. He’s been fortunate with injury but I have a sneaking suspicion that Wood may very well take his chance. He won’t be surprised by the pace of the game, like Harrison was in Australia, and was always at his best playing a straight forwards abrasive game. He won’t hit as hard as Haskell but his decision making at the breakdown is better. On the bench, Nathan Hughes gets his chance despite reports of being underwhelming for Wasps. Neither stardom nor failure would surprise me if/when he gets onto the pitch. He has the power to be a star; his inexperience and lack of discipline could see him fail. I suspect he’ll be somewhere in the middle.

The 9-10-12 combo remains set and could do so for some time. Many England fans cry out for deliverance from Ben Youngs, refusing to believe a scrum-half with such a comparatively poor pass and tardy decision making at the breakdown can't be good enough. I disagree - for me he's a game breaker around the fringes and does a lot of the simple things well enough. Whatever the truth is, Youngs' service hasn't been slowing down George Ford too much. Ford looked like the heir to Carter as the world's next great fly-half during the tour to Australia. Everybody knows about his skill in opening up defences but his ability to look up and put a team all the way back into their half with his boot is becoming more and more talked about. Whether he could be the complete package and kicks the goals will remain unproven for some with Farrell there. When things have been going well, this trio have been devastating, but whether it will work if the pack's forwards momentum goes missing and someone needs to physically challenge the line remains to be seen.

It certainly won't be Elliot Daly physically challenging the line. Anyone who isn't excited to see Daly finally getting his chance lacks either eyes or soul, but I think we can all agree out and out power isn't in his arsenal. Part of me expects to be disappointed; Joseph hasn't been able to find much space in this system and Daly is similar enough that I don't see things being too much different. Part of me expects Daly to find more gaps because opponents won't be watching him as closely. Yes, the fence is very comfy. In any case, the real questions about Daly are what happens when the other team has the ball. There's no doubt he can tackle but he hasn't proven that he's got the same judgement and defensive positioning as Joseph, who's quietly proven himself a very good international defender. If things go wrong, expect to see Joseph sprang from the bench early.

On the wings we have Not-Semesa Rokoduguni and Not-Semesa Rokoduguni. The exclusion of Rokoduguni is mystifying. He's the most powerful winger England have, arguably the best pure try scorer, a guy who can shut down prime Savea in defence, and seemingly without flaw at Premiership level. Whatever Jones is seeing that the rest of us don't, I'd love to know. Yarde and May aren't bad players by any stretch but better than Rokoduguni? In any case, they have the start and if they play well they can stay in the line up when Watson and Nowell return, particularly if Mike Brown continues to underwhelm. That will involve doing better than Watson and Nowell did with their defensive duties in the summer and if the team continues to expose their wings to so many 2 on 1s, it will be very difficult for them. If it does go very difficult, it wouldn't be a surprise to see Joseph brought on here.

This leaves one player unmentioned: Ben Te'o. I've been a fan of his since watching him in a Leinster shirt and with Tuilagi simply unable to stay fit, Te'o is possibly England's only international class battering ram. There's no guarantees he'll step up on the next level up - I reckon he will though and, if the pack does struggle with no Itoje, he could be crucial in this match. I was going to talk a little about player eligibility and compare the situation with him and Hughes but then I realised I don't care. They're playing, that's the main thing. 

And they're playing in a decent team. This is a pleasant new situation where I look at an England team and I look at the SH team in question and I don't think there's much to pick in terms of talent. England have home advantage, South Africa have the confidence that comes from knowing you've got an opponent's number. Everything points to a nice close match - everything except the coaching staffs. Allister Coetzee hasn't looked at home in international rugby so far. Eddie Jones? Well, he's looked quite good so far.

Time to find out just how good he is.