Tuesday, 26 January 2016

Eddie Jones' first match day 23 - GB&U

Six Nations rugby is nearly upon us and as per the somewhat irritating restrictions of the EPS agreement, Jones has released all players that won't be involved in his first match day squad back to their clubs.

Those going home:

Josh Beaumont (Sale Sharks), Luke Cowan-Dickie (Exeter Chiefs), Maro Itoje (Saracens), Matt Kvesic (Gloucester Rugby), Matt Mullan (Wasps), Henry Thomas (Bath Rugby), Elliot Daly (Wasps), Sam Hill (Exeter Chiefs), Semesa Rokoduguni (Bath Rugby), Marland Yarde (Harlequins)

Which means the following have stayed:

Forwards: Dan Cole (Leicester Tigers), Jack Clifford (Harlequins), Jamie George (Saracens), Dylan Hartley (Northampton Saints), James Haskell (Wasps), Paul Hill (Northampton Saints), George Kruis (Saracens), Joe Launchbury (Wasps), Courtney Lawes (Northampton Saints), Joe Marler (Harlequins), Chris Robshaw (Harlequins), Billy Vunipola (Saracens), Mako Vunipola (Saracens)

Backs: Mike Brown (Harlequins), Danny Care (Harlequins), Ollie Devoto (Bath Rugby), Owen Farrell (Saracens), George Ford (Bath Rugby), Alex Goode (Saracens), Jonathan Joseph (Bath Rugby), Jack Nowell (Exeter Chiefs), Anthony Watson (Bath Rugby), Ben Youngs (Leicester Tigers).

With Dylan Hartley named as captain.

While true judgement absolutely has to wait for match day, there's enough going on to start looking at how things are going to shape up. So let's divvy this up.

The Good

Paul Hill - Hill is about to become the second youngest prop to play for England since the start of the professional era (behind David Flatman) and he's completely earned it with his performances for Northampton. I'll admit to expecting Henry Thomas, and Thomas can feel unlucky, but not aggrieved, because on form this is not a controversial call. While it remains to see how Hill goes (there's some nerves personally in sending a guy out with this little experience to play 6N rugby), he has huge potential that he is realising now and it's exciting to see him given a chance so early.

Everyone not mentioned below - That's a lazy way of doing things I'll admit, but the squad is basically good. It's basically Lancaster's squad, which is a teeny bit frustrating but that was a solid international team and a disaster would be very unexpected, while the possibility of defeat lies more in the resurgence Scotland have been threatening for some time. If it stays an idle threat, Eddie Jones will get his reign off to a victorious start and can breathe that little easier.

The Ugly

Robshaw & Haskell - I have nothing major against either player in isolation, although both have flaws that means I can't be too for them either, but put together and you get a few problems. How do we know that? Well, we saw it last 6N. Swapping their shirts isn't going to fix that. I'll stress that I'm only talking about a few problems - namely the breakdown and lineout - and that it's mostly solid. Those are pretty major problems though and seeing the exact same thing again when we know what happens is, well, ugly. Jones has talked a lot about getting the breakdown right and Borthwick is known as a major lineout nerd, so maybe coaching will fix that. But it seems a pretty big ask to me.

Ollie Devoto - Fair play to young Devoto, it's not every player who manages to get an England cap while 22 years old and very firmly second choice at their club. There is a reason for that of course, it's that most people in that position are flat out not good enough. Now, Devoto has a lot of talent and long term we could be thankful for this, and I'm struggling to say what I'd have done instead, but this really isn't an optimal position to be in and everyone knows it. An early injury could leave us in trouble.

Courtney Lawes - I like Courtney. I'm not sure what all the recent fuss about him I've seen online is about. He's a decent international player at the very least and will probably hit that level against Scotland. The problem here arises from his current form, which has put that slightly at question, and that of Maro Itoje, who has arguably been playing better rugby than every other lock kept. Lawes is a very lucky boy to be there and will need to put in a big performance to justify it. This is assuming he's subbing behind Kruis and Launchbury of course, which isn't guaranteed yet.

The Bad

Alex Goode - Some players leave me mystified as to what's going on that pro coaches value so strongly that us armchair fans discount so utterly. Alex Goode is a prime example. I don't get how anyone can have come to the conclusion that he is an international standard player upon watching his matches at this level. He reads the game very well and possesses good technical skills but he simply isn't athletic enough. His mind writes cheques his body can't cash. That isn't the worst of it though. The worst of it is that because both he and Mike Brown struggle outside of full-back at international level, we are going into this match with no real back three cover. We lost the 2014 Six Nations due to this. An early injury to Watson or Nowell could leave us in the same position again.

Dylan Hartley - This has nothing to do with him being made captain (yet). This is simply about him playing for England to begin with. Right now, on current form, he shouldn't. On current form, he'd have struggled to make the Saxons. He's had one good game since returning from injury. I will be the first to take a gigantic dump over the idea that form should be the most important tool in selection but it's not without its merits. Of course, if you're not picking on form, you're probably picking on overall ability, and Hartley looks pretty short of that too. Based on the last x, the only thing Hartley has over a lot of his new rivals is that he's proven to be military medium at international level, while they could fail. Not to be sniffed at, but pretty grim grounds for inclusion. Add form and ability together and Hartley probably shouldn't be there. What's left? Cohesion? There should be no other Saints' forwards in the starting pack, which proved a problem last Six Nations. Experience? Picking solely on experience has rarely looked that successful to me. Like Lawes, he'll probably do a job, but there's better players in better form getting less gametime as a consequence.

Of course, what tips this from the Ugly category to the Bad is he'll be captain. I'd love to know what his team mates make of it in their heart of hearts; it's hard to respect a captain who doesn't demand a place in the team based solely on his own ability. It's also hard to respect a team mate who lets you down - who knows what they make of his suspension last summer? Are they nervous that he's going to add to his 54 weeks of suspensions this spring? Worried that the scrutiny he'll get from refs will affect him, or that his own poor record will damn them slightly in the ref's eyes before the game even starts? I'd have my doubts there, but they know him better than I do. If these things affect the squad, he will be an actively bad decision.


All in all though, I am reasonably optimistic ahead of the Scotland game and if we perform well enough, the whole tournament. After all, this is roughly the same squad that has been coming close again and again.

In that respect, it's quite a ballsy selection from Jones. By picking the same players, he is inviting us to compare him to Lancaster straight away. Go badly, and it looks very bad. Go well, and there will be comments he's profiting from the squad Lancaster built, although probably not that many given Lancaster's unpopularity upon departure. Not that he's thinking in those terms of course - he simply wants to win. 

Whether he will remains to be seen.

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