It's a harsh thing to say after a 3 point loss to the All Blacks, but England's next game is beginning to look like a line in the sand. Either we show we are capable of beating the SANZAR teams, or the seed of doubt about whether this team has what it takes will start to grow rapidly.
You only have to look at Wales' record under Warren Gatland to see what a habit defeat can be. They've racked up a formidable if inconsistent record in the Six Nations but show them one of the Big Three and the opposite happens; very consistent, not at all formidable. They lose, again and again. Such a fate is unacceptable for most England fans, still dreaming of that brief period when Lord Bald's white orcs ruled the world. But we could be heading for it. No, wait, scratch that. That's where we currently are. The stats don't lie. But, it's acceptable that it takes a coach time to build a team. It's not worrying in the greater scheme of things if its taken Lancaster three years to get to the point of regularly challenging the best.
However, rebuilding time should have been passed. Maybe people are being hasty, driven by envy of Joe Schmidt taking a formerly-weak Ireland to the Six Nations and a spanking of the Springbok within a year. There are still some big weaknesses in terms of personnel available to Lancaster. But three years is a long time in rugby. You have to go back to the 80s to find an England coach who, given three years, didn't win the Six Nations at least once - save Lancaster. Three years is enough. Besides, Ireland won a Six Nations with their 6th and 7th choice wingers (give or take), Wales won a Grand Slam with Dan Biggar at fly-half. A canny coach can work his way around limited personnel.
The good news is that the Boks look fallible, even if that defeat to Ireland will have their motivation at fever pitch. As everyone knows, they will start by running hard at you and if that doesn't work, they'll run even harder. But that's just not as scary when they don't have Willem Alberts, when de Villiers and Etzebeth look out of sorts, when the good Du Plessis and the precocious Pollard are on the bench. They'll have to be intelligent rather than just brutal, and in Reinach and Lambie they have an untried half-back partnership. The absence of Francois Louw hurts them here too, even if Coetzee is an able deputy. The dubious form of their first choice props won't help them either. In short, while this is still South Africa, it is a South Africa that is missing its shock troops and generals.
So - if England can't beat them at home when they're a little more tender than usual - when would we be capable of beating them?
Hopefully the question won't arise. It's time that England started winning games like this.
