Tuesday 26 January 2016

Eddie Jones' first match day 23 - GB&U

Six Nations rugby is nearly upon us and as per the somewhat irritating restrictions of the EPS agreement, Jones has released all players that won't be involved in his first match day squad back to their clubs.

Those going home:

Josh Beaumont (Sale Sharks), Luke Cowan-Dickie (Exeter Chiefs), Maro Itoje (Saracens), Matt Kvesic (Gloucester Rugby), Matt Mullan (Wasps), Henry Thomas (Bath Rugby), Elliot Daly (Wasps), Sam Hill (Exeter Chiefs), Semesa Rokoduguni (Bath Rugby), Marland Yarde (Harlequins)

Which means the following have stayed:

Forwards: Dan Cole (Leicester Tigers), Jack Clifford (Harlequins), Jamie George (Saracens), Dylan Hartley (Northampton Saints), James Haskell (Wasps), Paul Hill (Northampton Saints), George Kruis (Saracens), Joe Launchbury (Wasps), Courtney Lawes (Northampton Saints), Joe Marler (Harlequins), Chris Robshaw (Harlequins), Billy Vunipola (Saracens), Mako Vunipola (Saracens)

Backs: Mike Brown (Harlequins), Danny Care (Harlequins), Ollie Devoto (Bath Rugby), Owen Farrell (Saracens), George Ford (Bath Rugby), Alex Goode (Saracens), Jonathan Joseph (Bath Rugby), Jack Nowell (Exeter Chiefs), Anthony Watson (Bath Rugby), Ben Youngs (Leicester Tigers).

With Dylan Hartley named as captain.

While true judgement absolutely has to wait for match day, there's enough going on to start looking at how things are going to shape up. So let's divvy this up.

The Good

Paul Hill - Hill is about to become the second youngest prop to play for England since the start of the professional era (behind David Flatman) and he's completely earned it with his performances for Northampton. I'll admit to expecting Henry Thomas, and Thomas can feel unlucky, but not aggrieved, because on form this is not a controversial call. While it remains to see how Hill goes (there's some nerves personally in sending a guy out with this little experience to play 6N rugby), he has huge potential that he is realising now and it's exciting to see him given a chance so early.

Everyone not mentioned below - That's a lazy way of doing things I'll admit, but the squad is basically good. It's basically Lancaster's squad, which is a teeny bit frustrating but that was a solid international team and a disaster would be very unexpected, while the possibility of defeat lies more in the resurgence Scotland have been threatening for some time. If it stays an idle threat, Eddie Jones will get his reign off to a victorious start and can breathe that little easier.

The Ugly

Robshaw & Haskell - I have nothing major against either player in isolation, although both have flaws that means I can't be too for them either, but put together and you get a few problems. How do we know that? Well, we saw it last 6N. Swapping their shirts isn't going to fix that. I'll stress that I'm only talking about a few problems - namely the breakdown and lineout - and that it's mostly solid. Those are pretty major problems though and seeing the exact same thing again when we know what happens is, well, ugly. Jones has talked a lot about getting the breakdown right and Borthwick is known as a major lineout nerd, so maybe coaching will fix that. But it seems a pretty big ask to me.

Ollie Devoto - Fair play to young Devoto, it's not every player who manages to get an England cap while 22 years old and very firmly second choice at their club. There is a reason for that of course, it's that most people in that position are flat out not good enough. Now, Devoto has a lot of talent and long term we could be thankful for this, and I'm struggling to say what I'd have done instead, but this really isn't an optimal position to be in and everyone knows it. An early injury could leave us in trouble.

Courtney Lawes - I like Courtney. I'm not sure what all the recent fuss about him I've seen online is about. He's a decent international player at the very least and will probably hit that level against Scotland. The problem here arises from his current form, which has put that slightly at question, and that of Maro Itoje, who has arguably been playing better rugby than every other lock kept. Lawes is a very lucky boy to be there and will need to put in a big performance to justify it. This is assuming he's subbing behind Kruis and Launchbury of course, which isn't guaranteed yet.

The Bad

Alex Goode - Some players leave me mystified as to what's going on that pro coaches value so strongly that us armchair fans discount so utterly. Alex Goode is a prime example. I don't get how anyone can have come to the conclusion that he is an international standard player upon watching his matches at this level. He reads the game very well and possesses good technical skills but he simply isn't athletic enough. His mind writes cheques his body can't cash. That isn't the worst of it though. The worst of it is that because both he and Mike Brown struggle outside of full-back at international level, we are going into this match with no real back three cover. We lost the 2014 Six Nations due to this. An early injury to Watson or Nowell could leave us in the same position again.

Dylan Hartley - This has nothing to do with him being made captain (yet). This is simply about him playing for England to begin with. Right now, on current form, he shouldn't. On current form, he'd have struggled to make the Saxons. He's had one good game since returning from injury. I will be the first to take a gigantic dump over the idea that form should be the most important tool in selection but it's not without its merits. Of course, if you're not picking on form, you're probably picking on overall ability, and Hartley looks pretty short of that too. Based on the last x, the only thing Hartley has over a lot of his new rivals is that he's proven to be military medium at international level, while they could fail. Not to be sniffed at, but pretty grim grounds for inclusion. Add form and ability together and Hartley probably shouldn't be there. What's left? Cohesion? There should be no other Saints' forwards in the starting pack, which proved a problem last Six Nations. Experience? Picking solely on experience has rarely looked that successful to me. Like Lawes, he'll probably do a job, but there's better players in better form getting less gametime as a consequence.

Of course, what tips this from the Ugly category to the Bad is he'll be captain. I'd love to know what his team mates make of it in their heart of hearts; it's hard to respect a captain who doesn't demand a place in the team based solely on his own ability. It's also hard to respect a team mate who lets you down - who knows what they make of his suspension last summer? Are they nervous that he's going to add to his 54 weeks of suspensions this spring? Worried that the scrutiny he'll get from refs will affect him, or that his own poor record will damn them slightly in the ref's eyes before the game even starts? I'd have my doubts there, but they know him better than I do. If these things affect the squad, he will be an actively bad decision.


All in all though, I am reasonably optimistic ahead of the Scotland game and if we perform well enough, the whole tournament. After all, this is roughly the same squad that has been coming close again and again.

In that respect, it's quite a ballsy selection from Jones. By picking the same players, he is inviting us to compare him to Lancaster straight away. Go badly, and it looks very bad. Go well, and there will be comments he's profiting from the squad Lancaster built, although probably not that many given Lancaster's unpopularity upon departure. Not that he's thinking in those terms of course - he simply wants to win. 

Whether he will remains to be seen.

Thursday 14 January 2016

The first EPS of Jones

So, we've all had a chance to look at the squad. We've had time to react and second think. To come to rational decisions on what we think about it. Rational. Cool. Calm.

... ok, I can't do this.

Chris Ashton's presence in the squad is borderline inexplicable and totally enraging. Over the past four years, Ashton has pushed the boundaries of complete pointlessness to levels undreamed of even by Match of the Day pundits. His most memorable moments have come in conceding opposition tries rather than scoring them himself. He's not shown one outstanding trait at international level in that time. He's been utter dogshit. And he's the only England player in that time I've ever had reason to wonder if they're actually a bit yellow. 

I've joked with people that if I'd been interviewing candidates to be England's head coach, there's a few players where if they'd expressed an interest in selecting them, I'd have terminated the interview there and then. I never used Ashton's name in this because I never dreamt anyone would look at the last four years and think recalling him was anything other than stark raving insanity. 

Sure, in Johnson's day, Ashton looked pretty good. It would be a cool trick to get that player back. Having George Ford imitate Toby Flood on his good days would be the obvious answer to that. But he's not the only winger in the country who can track the ball. And most of them have a lot of other useful attributes that Ashton lacks. Such as not being so fucking deluded they didn't think they got a fair shake under Lancaster. Or power and agility. Or not being the worst England player of the last four years by a staggering margin in a team that won sweet fuck all.

Now, Eddie Jones is entitled to think he can get more out of players than Lancaster; nay, more than entitled. It's his job. It's why he's been hired. And maybe he'll do so here. But I'll straight up hope that he doesn't and the other 14 players rescue us. Because fuck Ashton.

*deep breath* Ok, that's better.

Jones' first squad has a lot to be said for it. He's got a decent core of good internationals which means we won't be facing an unnecessary uphill struggle in his first Six Nations. He's also got a decent number of shit hot young players who could enliven a team that was falling short of glory and, in time, maybe give us the return to 2003 we all yearn for. Small details aside, it's what most of us hoped for. 

Up front, we've gone for 9 front rowers. Dave Wilson is out; Paul Hill is in. Hill probably won't play at all, on account of being only 20, but his showings for Northampton this season suggests he'd do as good a job as many if injuries did force him in. He's there to be moulded and nurtured though, with the intention of turning him into the greatest tighthead of his generation. Henry Thomas has been named as injury replacement for Kieran Brookes, a further nail in the coffin of Wilson's England career. Thomas is still a little callow, but a far better scrummager now than he was when last called up and just as mobile. On the loosehead side, Matt Mullan's come in to compete with Marler.

Two changes have been made at hooker with Webber and Youngs making way for Hartley and Luke Cowan-Dickie. Enough words have been wasted on the internet about Hartley; he will never belong with the greats but, when not suspended, will rarely be exposed at test level. I hope Mike Haywood finishes the job of deposing him at Saints and goes on to do it for England, but until that time, Hartley will do a job. Luke Cowan-Dickie will not do a job but will do lots and lots of throwing practice as he bids to become more than Tom Youngs Mk 2. Speaking of English Rugby's favourite hobbit, there's a media report going around that Youngs was told to work on his carrying and tackle count. Someone has a sense of humour there.

Maro Itoje continues his climb towards the big time with inclusion at Geoff Parling's expense; I like Parling, but wouldn't dream of complaining here. The back row has a number of changes with Jack Clifford, Dave Ewers and Josh Beaumont being named in the squad. Ewers has been grafting away for this opportunity for a long time; it's a shame he's injured when it comes around but the opportunity that gives to Matt Kvesic to impress is a good thing. Clifford and Beaumont offer a pair of fast, intelligent, powerful ball carriers, the like of which we've seen only rarely in recent times for England.

Only four half-backs have been included, two of each, nailing Jones' colours to the mast early - particularly when Owen Farrell is also the senior fit 12 (sweet jesus). Joe Simpson and Danny Cipriani will both consider themselves quite unlucky and while if injury strikes both will be ready, neither will be as ready as they would be if they'd been in camp. Personally, Simpson's probably better than Care these days (being a better kicker clinches it), while Cipriani is England's best fly-half until handed the kicking tee, an objection rendered moot by the likely presence of Farrell at 12. 

The 12s in the squad currently are Sam Hill and Ollie Devoto, currently deputising for the barely-fit Tuilagi and not-at-all fit Slade respectively. It's a bold move, but there's at worst a silver lining to the inclusion of the two best young English inside-centres of the moment. The presence of Tuilagi when properly fit will be a huge boost mid-Six Nations mind. At 13, there's a pretty epic fight developing between Joseph and new boy Elliot Daly, both of whom have very much the same strengths and weaknesses.

The wing selection is slightly puzzling. For one thing, the injured Jonny May has been jettisoned entirely for Marland Yarde, rather than using a free change; odd call there. Then there's the presence of He Who Shall Give Me A Fucking Aneurysm. Then there's the non-presence of Semesa Rokoduguni, the most physical of English wings and playing really well in Bath's not so great season so far. If there's one player the internet seems convinced has been hard done by, its Rokoduguni. And there's no change at full-back, which is slightly disappointing to a non-fan of Alex Goode, but good things come to those who wait.

So what will this mean for the team on the pitch? The media have had a lot of things to say, but it's worth noting that a) they weren't right about the squad and b) Jones has a bit of a history for playing media games. So, a pinch of salt is needed. No new caps at all at Murrayfield? Great news for Matt Kvesic, as he's definitely going to play if true, and picking number 22 will be interesting. So, yeah, maybe not. Haskell at 7? Maybe. Maybe not.

Truth is, it's pretty hard to be at this point. Eddie Jones enjoys being a little inscrutable. We know he'll want accuracy at the basics, physical intensity, and the ability to do something a bit special, but beyond that, who can say?

Dan Cole pretty much has to start at tighthead with Brooks injured. The Vunipolas are probably favourites to start in their respective positions. Ford and Farrell seems writ into stone. A man who wants intensity probably wants Mike Brown. I hate to say it, but Ashton is probably there for a reason and Anthony Watson's been the best back three player going this season out of those named. Does Hartley start ahead of Jamie George if he's not starting for his club? Hard to say.

It should be pointed out that, at this time, Eddie Jones hasn't coached any of these guys. He hasn't met any of them bar Robshaw (reportedly). He hasn't really watched much of them bar the internationals. Jones says he asked George Smith for his opinion on picking opensides; possibly slight kidology, but probably just reflecting that he's having to learn fast here. So, picking mostly Lancaster's team, which he's seen before, would make sense. But that is not necessarily the direction of travel. In a weird way, right now it's like Eddie Jones hasn't actually started the job, but is acting as a caretaker ahead of taking on the job for real in the summer; a limited number of changes aimed at just getting results while he gets the knowledge needed to really crack on. 

The England team will probably be quite similar to that seen under Lancaster on paper at least. It might be fairly similar on the pitch too. That would be slightly disappointing. But Jones is already preparing for the future beyond that. And he might just throw in a curveball now - he's got enough of them around.

It's a time for guarded optimism, patience, and hoping Chris Ashton has a moment of clarity and runs away to Tibet to spend the rest of his life as a (hopefully happy) Buddhist monk. All in all though, the first squad looks good. I await the first performance eagerly.

Wednesday 13 January 2016

Forwards the Yoot

Eddie Jones is set to end the long wait for real news on his intentions today with the announcement of his first EPS. The papers have had a few rumours, but no one seems sure on quite how accurate they are. So rather than comment on possible news when I can wait just a little longer for the real McCoy, I've decided to help waste your morning with talk on a different rumour, that being the mooted U23 tour of South Africa.

I have to say while at first I was really enthusiastic about the idea, I have had some second thoughts since first hearing about it. Many of England's eligible players would already be involved with the senior squad anyway; out of England's World Cup squad, 10 each of both the backs and of the forwards had made their full debut by the age of 23. And pretty much all of the backs that hadn't are players I'd never like to see play for England again. I'm all for it simply because it's more rugby, but the RFU should have better reasons than that and if the cream of the crop just flat out doesn't need it, who's it meant to help? 

The obvious answer is late developers. There are three main types of player I can see this being really good for. The first set are the players for whom everyone had really high hopes for based on age grade but can't seem to get past the squad rotation level at club despite obvious talent. Getting them more gametime could be a tipping point just in itself. The second set are the backs who have oodles of talent but not a sniff of senior duties due to defensive frailties. Getting them involved in an England set-up so they can still be groomed for senior duties while they work on this has a lot to be said for it. The third set are the forwards who are still a little callow on their set-piece work. Is this going to make a big enough difference to be worth the resources?

Looking at that World Cup squad again, you do have to question how sensible our current development policy is. At the moment, coaches have been picking the best of the litter very young (good) and then sticking with them regardless of how well they develop (not so good). The U23s wouldn't just be about developing the next best, it would also be about giving the coaching set-up a better idea of what they could have had instead, hopefully ensuring a better level of competition for the England squad going forwards. That in turn should force the players who get in early to either keep developing or lose their place; based on the number of players who never ironed out their fatal weakness, this seems hugely necessary. The U23s could never produce a player for England but still be worth it if it puts more pressure on the EPS to raise their game.

It would produce players for England though. Of course it would. And I don't just mean "tight five forward destined for greatness plays a year of U23 at 21 and then goes into the seniors at 22 instead of going straight into the seniors at 22". I'm talking about marginal or incomplete talents who could seriously benefit from a couple of years in a halfway house environment when it comes to turning them into proper internationals. There may only be a couple of such players in each World Cup squad, but that is the sort of marginal gain that's possibly the difference between perennial underperformance and getting our shit together.

There is one further caveat though; the need for proper pre-seasons. If we want our young players to avoid burnout and reach the peak physical performance needed to get the best out of them, we can't be flogging them all season and then every summer too. Some players only ever do proper pre-seasons in the small gap between being an U20 international and being a full international; this could possibly remove even that. It wasn't that long ago George Ford was left at home to ensure he could have a proper pre-season once in his career; that sort of thinking will be needed from time to time if we go through with this plan.

If we do, then who should be involved? It's a bit hard to predict given we don't know who's in the EPS yet and that as it would be a summer tour, injuries should give a few unexpected players a run out with the seniors, but assuming no injuries, no U20 players used, and the standard format of turns 23 that year (i.e. born 2013 or younger), a hypothetical squad might look like this:

LHP: Alec Hepburn, Ellis Genge
HK: Luke Cowan-Dickie, Nathan Morris
THP: Scott Wilson, Kyle Sinckler
LK: Charlie Ewels, Elliott Stooke, Dom Barrow, Jonny Hill
BR: James Chisholm, Lewis Ludlam, Dave Sisi, Lewis Ludlow, Joel Conlon
SH: Callum Braley, Stuart Townsend
FH: Alex Lozowski, Billy Burns
CE: Harry Sloan, Tom Stephenson, Nick Tompkins, Sam James
W/FB: Henry Purdy, Nathan Earle, Tom Fowlie, Mike Haley, Simon Hammersley

This could be a lot stronger, it's true, and a few guys there are there to make up the numbers more than anything. This squad assumes that Paul Hill, Maro Itoje, James Clifford, George Ford, Henry Slade, Sam Hill, Ollie Devoto, Jack Nowell and Anthony Watson will all be involved in the senior squad. Cherrypicking the best of the U20s would surely see Jack Walker miss out on his 3rd JWC and sent on this tour in place of Nathan Morris, while there's a strong case for London Irish's Johnny Williams to continue his fast-tracking, although that's a strong enough group of centres as is. There's also the latest cause celebre of English players abroad, the still U20 eligible openside Sam Underhill who's been making waves for Ospreys. He's definitely too good to let the Taffs poach him, that's for sure.

Honestly, I'm not sure there's too many future England players there. Most are behind an established queue of players and haven't really persuaded me that they've got it. But there's potential there and very few players I'd absolutely rule out. And you could definitely make a watchable team out of that.

So here's hoping it happens.

I now return you to your normal fear and loathing of the prospect of Chris Ashton getting back into the England.