Wednesday 12 November 2014

No More Excuses

It's a harsh thing to say after a 3 point loss to the All Blacks, but England's next game is beginning to look like a line in the sand. Either we show we are capable of beating the SANZAR teams, or the seed of doubt about whether this team has what it takes will start to grow rapidly.

You only have to look at Wales' record under Warren Gatland to see what a habit defeat can be. They've racked up a formidable if inconsistent record in the Six Nations but show them one of the Big Three and the opposite happens; very consistent, not at all formidable. They lose, again and again. Such a fate is unacceptable for most England fans, still dreaming of that brief period when Lord Bald's white orcs ruled the world. But we could be heading for it. No, wait, scratch that. That's where we currently are. The stats don't lie. But, it's acceptable that it takes a coach time to build a team. It's not worrying in the greater scheme of things if its taken Lancaster three years to get to the point of regularly challenging the best. 

However, rebuilding time should have been passed. Maybe people are being hasty, driven by envy of Joe Schmidt taking a formerly-weak Ireland to the Six Nations and a spanking of the Springbok within a year. There are still some big weaknesses in terms of personnel available to Lancaster. But three years is a long time in rugby. You have to go back to the 80s to find an England coach who, given three years, didn't win the Six Nations at least once - save Lancaster. Three years is enough. Besides, Ireland won a Six Nations with their 6th and 7th choice wingers (give or take), Wales won a Grand Slam with Dan Biggar at fly-half. A canny coach can work his way around limited personnel.

The good news is that the Boks look fallible, even if that defeat to Ireland will have their motivation at fever pitch. As everyone knows, they will start by running hard at you and if that doesn't work, they'll run even harder. But that's just not as scary when they don't have Willem Alberts, when de Villiers and Etzebeth look out of sorts, when the good Du Plessis and the precocious Pollard are on the bench. They'll have to be intelligent rather than just brutal, and in Reinach and Lambie they have an untried half-back partnership. The absence of Francois Louw hurts them here too, even if Coetzee is an able deputy. The dubious form of their first choice props won't help them either. In short, while this is still South Africa, it is a South Africa that is missing its shock troops and generals. 

So - if England can't beat them at home when they're a little more tender than usual - when would we be capable of beating them?

Hopefully the question won't arise. It's time that England started winning games like this.


Friday 3 October 2014

Midland Pests

It has now become apparent that Wasps are very close to sealing a deal to buy Coventry's Ricoh Arena with the intent of moving their games there. It's all been very hush-hush until now and, while that might have been due to commercial imperatives, Wasps must have welcomed the side-effect of avoiding negative opinion and opposition. 

It's not difficult to work out why there might be negative opinion as this move seems utterly idiotic.

Wasps are a west London club. That was confirmed to me every time I spoke to a Wasps fan in London - or even a rugby neutral - about their then mooted move to Brentford and heard hope. Wasps returning home. I'd even been planning to go a few Wasps games if that happened. Some will tell you the move to Wycombe was only ever sold as temporary before finding a London home. Now their club is lining up to tell them they'll be moving even further away.

Meanwhile, there's a large number of Coventry City fans who will be feeling betrayed and hurt if this goes through. The Ricoh, in their eyes, is Coventry's natural ground. To see it handed over to a rugby club from London that doesn't even want to move its training base and players there instead does not sound like the most promising of introductions. Of course, Wasps will mainly be focusing on Coventry's rugby fans. My guess would be there's two kinds of rugby fans in Coventry. There's those who travel to support Northampton, Worcester or Leicester, and who are presumably quite set in their ways. Then there's those who support Coventry, because it's Coventry and they're from Coventry, and Wasps will not be from Coventry. 

One can only presume the Wasps management think it will end out differently. The gods only know why. It's not like they'll even be able to claim they're a proper Coventry club, as apparently they're retaining their London training base. Hi people of Coventry - come and support a bunch of boys from London up here for a day trip! And they certainly wouldn't be a London club, as London clubs play as close to London as possible. You can go out and dress it up better for marketing but that is a difficult and unlovely underlying reality to hide. 

Spare a thought for the players. The commute is probably better than actually moving to Coventry, but no one signed on for that, and you've got to wonder at what point the club would try moving the whole circus there. There are three London clubs who'd probably love to asset strip Wasps if possible. Rumours have it that Saracens are already making overtures to Joe Launchbury, and by rumours I mean Dai Young's said it, who should probably know. Launchbury's wondering whether Wasps are a club with a top 4 future where he can challenge for trophies. If it becomes a tight call, at what point does a schlep up to the Midlands to play in front of an empty stadium enter his thinking?

Of course, while a player might wonder if they've got plans for moving the entire operation up to Coventry at some point, which could be very inconvenient for his family, any new fan in Coventry must wonder whether the retention of a London training base means this too might be temporary 

This could go on and on. There are main potential riffs on the main theme of "Wasps are about to make their club unloved and untrusted" but the owners don't seem to have noticed. Or cared. Or asked. 

And that's pretty shitty.

Here's hoping that it stings them in the arse.

Friday 31 January 2014

Six Nations 2014: England

This will be Lancaster's third Six Nations as England head coach. It is hard to write anything about his England side without feeling deja vu for so far, the essentials of that side have not truly changed since day one. Since that unlikely, lucky win in the foulest of weather up in Scotland.

Under Lancaster, England have displayed considerable powers of defensive organisation and mental strength. The word incredible might be better; England have racked up a tidy array of wins seemingly by these two qualities alone. When it comes to the art of avoiding defeat by avoiding mistakes, England acknowledge few equals. The same qualities also make England very proficient at forcing such mistakes from their opposition. Their excellence in these areas have been sufficient to deal with a surprising number of teams.

In other areas however, England have looked a long way from excellent, although they do sometimes strain credibility. Place the England team in front of a tight, disciplined defence, give them the ball, and you could be there all day before a try is scored. Which becomes an issue when facing a team composed enough to deal with England's pressure tactics and gifted enough to crack the defence. There isn't a great amount England can do beyond that. The backline in particular has frequently looked more wooden than Keanu Reeves but it should not go unmentioned that the far more vaunted pack has undergone its own set of troubles. Over the past two years it has misfired regularly either at the lineout, the scrum, the breakdown or in terms of ball carrying. It is, in review, a comprehensive gamut of possible errors.

That it, more or less, the pattern of Lancaster's England. Successful when discipline is enough, not when it's not, unable to offer more. There are some outliers - New Zealand seem to bring out our best, there have been a few incidents of minnow trouncing and sometimes the system has failed spectacularly. But the pattern holds and as such, every tournament brings the question of 'Can England break that pattern and move on?' If we are to accomplish Lancaster's goal of winning the World Cup, we have to, and are running out of time to do so.

Lancaster could be forgiven for cursing his luck going into this tournament. There is an extensive injury list, filled with genuinely important players. The absence of Alex Corbisiero is a huge kick to the teeth and although Joe Marler's coninued improvement lessens the blow, he is not at the same level yet in his scrummaging.  Dave Wilson's injury is less newsworthy, but nearly as annoying. Without the Bath tighthead England's resources look very thin. Henry Thomas is a young man of much promise, but he is not here on the back of excellent scrummaging. Until Wilson regains fitness, you would imagine Cole will be played for as long as possible, adding to his already gargantuan workload for club and country. As a platform for attacking rugby, it is not ideal. At least the lineout should function with Hartley at hooker.

The breakdown is a different kettle of fish. Last year, I think, sometime around the Italy game, there was a video with HASK(tm) and Flood going over some of what had gone wrong and right. Numbers at the breakdown was one of the things mentioned with it being acknowledged that England had not sent enough men in. That has been an on and off failing ever since (and was before too) on show as recently as the last Saxons game. You presume they're using the same systems as the senior team. Are we about to see England commit minimum numbers to their own breakdown again? When England undercommit, they get done. There is the mobility and power available to secure the ball, that much is obvious from the most recent New Zealand game, but it is not getting consistently applied. The French may not have Dusautoir but they are still capable of causing major amounts of mischief.

So the platform up front could be shaky. Lancaster will have things to work on in training. Behind the pack, things look very different. The most familiar faces are Danny Care and Owen Farrell, but they are not overly familiar with each other. They have never started a game together before and have racked up less than 140 minutes of gametime as a partnership. The only real continuity in the backline comes in the Farrell-Twelvetrees partnership which has so far notched up five games, including the last three. It seems unlikely that we will see the backline going full tilt as a result.

However, there is nothing new about that. What is new and very laudable, is the danger possessed by each individual player. With the exception of Owen Farrell - and maybe not even that exception - there is no player to which you would wish to offer the gap. Both Burrell and Twelvetrees have power and distribution skills to add to a bit of pace and footwork while the back three is probably the most dangerous fielded by England in a Six Nations game since... since... answers on a postcard please. Nowell is in many ways a similar player to Brown - clever feet, strength and mad determination while Jonny May is just ridiculously fast. This is what many of us have wanted and we should be patient.

So, all in all, it seems unlikely to me that this is the tournament we will see the great step forwards. The platform up front is shakier than one would like and the backline is having to gel together on the job. The half-back partnership is made up of players better known for disappointing fans with their distribution than otherwise. Where we may see a tiny step forwards is that there are more players capable of moments of individual brilliance as the game opens up. Given the pressure England force on teams, seeking to force the game into brief periods of chaos in which they may prosper, this could work out.

But if movement is unsure on England's weaknesses, what then of England's strengths? If Saint-Andre made any prayers towards a choice of opposition for tomorrow, an England backline this callow would have been in his thoughts.  In particular, the centre partnership of Twelvetrees and Burrell looks a little suspect. Burrell started the season as a hard hitter who didn't read the game that well. He's been working on it - but as a 12.  At 13, as the hinge of the defence, things are different. Against them, France will pit Fofana's dancing feet and Bastareud's supersized prop physique, along with the back three popping up where they will. That could end poorly. Judging from the selection of Brad Barritt on the bench, Lancaster also suspects this as a possibility. It is difficult to see a more obvious reason for him being there. If that gap appears, what happens to the team's confidence? Does it affect their discipline? It seems unlikely but it is possible. This backline might just be the gamble of Lancaster's career.

The problems may remain the same but the factors have changed radically. This could be the most interesting Six Nations for England for some time.

Thursday 23 January 2014

Saxons vs Wolfhounds preview

The time just before the start of the Six Nations is always something of a washout in terms of rugby on the television, so thank gods for the continuation of A rugby in some corners of these isles. The A match between England Saxons and Ireland's Wolfhounds has always been an interesting guide to who the coaches might pick next year but are almost certainly going to ignore this year - which I hope isn't true of Anthony Watson.

The Bath youngster has dropped down from the main squad to cover injuries to the Saxons' initial selection of wingers in the best news that Chris Ashton has had since the double injury to Marland Yarde and Christian Wade last autumn. Watson will link up with Charlie Sharples, possibly the world's fastest bald man, and versatile Wasps man Elliot Daly. Not quite as deadly sounding as the originally mooted Varndell-Rokoduguni-Daly unit but still a worrying sight for oppositions anywhere. It does slightly beg the question of what Ashton is still doing in the senior squad when Charlie Sharples is about our ninth choice winger (Yarde, Wade, Nowell, May, Watson, Benjamin, Varndell, Rokoduguni and then Sharples) who is not Chris Ashton. Still, enough of that.

This Saxons team also contains a first taste of senior representative rugby for Exeter's Sam Hill, the powerful centre who has been a mainstay of England's U20s for the last two season, and probably the fastest possible English half-back pairing around in Joe Simpson and Freddie Burns. Also, Matt Hopper at 13. Up front, Tom Mercey reminds me that he exists and is a real person as he continues his pairing with fellow Northampton bencher Alex Waller, with Saracens' in form Jamie George sandwiched in between. Another Saracen, in the form of George Kruis, partners Charlie Matthews while the back row is made up of huge Exeter 8 Dave Ewers, lassie lookalike Luke Wallace, and Calum "Arm Bar" Clarke, arguably the most despised man in English rugby. Good blindside though.

The bench contains U20s prop Scott Wilson, promoted early for reasons that have absolutely nothing to do with him being eligible for Scotland, Dave Ward of Quins, and Bath loosehead Nathan Catt in the front row. Glaws tyro Elliot Stooke will celebrate a hugely successful 12 months with his first Saxons cap if he comes - watch out for him, anyone who looks good in the current Glaws pack is made of some stuff - while Northampton's Sam Dickinson covers the back row. Dave Lewis of Exeter returns to Kingsholm as scrum-half cover, former U20 fly-half Henry Slade will be looking to link up with Sam Hill off the bench, and Rob Miller makes up the numbers as back-three cover.

Ireland by contrast look a lot more battle hardened. Loosehead Dave Kilcoyne has international caps and will join Rob Herring, the impressive Ulster reserve hooker, and Martin Moore in the front row. Moore in particular has been good recently and looks halfway to usurping Mike Ross for Leinster. The Ulster combination in the engine room of Dan Tuohy and Iain Henderson can also boast a handy collection of international caps and a very impressive level of athleticism. The back-row of Rhys Ruddock, Tommy O'Donnell and Robin Copeland offers a good mix of skills and size and a metric shit ton of carrying. Experienced scrum-half Isaac Boss will be expected to shackle Simpson when not linking up with Leinster team mate Ian Madigan. Darren Cave forms the third part of an international 9-10-12 axis, although not in his usual position, with Robbie Henshaw preferred at outside centre. He too has international caps, as do the wingers Craig Gilroy and Fergus McFadden, an interesting mix of rapier and bludgeon. I can't remember if Felix Jones has any and if he does, he's not getting many more, but he should do his job nicely.

The bench isn't a great deal kinder. It's a delight to see Richardt Strauss return to competitive rugby after a heart condition forced him to spend most of this season out, but I can't help but wish he'd waited a week. Newly minted international prop Jack McGrath will be licking his lips at the thought of getting his shoulders into Scott Wilson while Stephen Archer looks like he might have stopped being the new Tony Buckley. There's no specialist replacement second row, with naturalised Saffa Robbie Diack and Leinster youngster Jordi Murphy on the bench, but Diack or Copeland could fill in there at a pinch. Behind the scrum they have Kieran Marmion, Ian Keatley and Simon Zebo waiting. Keatley is nothing special, Marmion may be and Zebo is - providing he's properly fit.

So what's going to happen? While the Saxons have home advantage, the Wolfhounds have the advantage in terms of experience. They also arguably have the advantage in form with all but three of the players coming from HEC quarter-finalists. A quick count shows only two players from Saracens and Leicester - not helped by a huge injury list that contains Will Fraser, Graham Kitchener, Jamie Gibson, Miles Benjamin and Matthew Tait. The only caps in the England side are Joe Simpson, Freddie Burns and Charlie Sharples. A lot could rest on the half-back pairing, both to guide this team through, and as attacking weapons in their own right. If the Irish fringe defence is weak, they will shred it like pulled pork. It's not a settled defence, with Cave out of position, Henshaw raw, and none of the three used to each other. Henshaw's positioning in particular will be targeted I think and he'd be well advised to keep an eye on Elliot Daly. The second row is arguably not the best for the set piece, although it was that second row that propelled the Ulster front row near clear out of the back of Leicester's set piece the other day.

However there appear to be more weaknesses in the Saxons. The prospect of Wilson vs McGrath is a worrying one. Matt Hopper is given to the odd stupid decision in defence and Burns is no bastion of strength either. Daly's mastery of the full-back position is about to be given a thorough going over by the Irish love of the garryowen. In the pack, we are arguably a little short of carriers, with a huge amount expected from Dave Ewers. Expect the Irish to line him up (maybe a job for Tuohy and Ruddock). Good luck picking an Irishman to line up; they could all make dents. It could be a long day if our inexperience is exploited in a crucial way.

I am not expecting that, although I am worried about it. The breakdown will be crucial with both sides having a few decent jackals - the clash between Wallace and O'Donnell in particular looks a highlight. Whichever side gets clean ball, they have the attacking players to make the most of it, with Madigan and Burns both alike emerging from the Carlos Spencer Appreciation Society school of fly-half. The English back three packs a potent punch (an unusual sight for us) and if we get the ball up front, victory should be ours. But then isn't that true? I look forwards to finding out.

Saturday 25th 17:00, Kingsholm.

England Saxons15 Elliot Daly (London Wasps) 14 Anthony Watson (Bath Rugby) 13 Matt Hopper (Harlequins)12 Sam Hill (Exeter Chiefs) 11 Charlie Sharples (Gloucester Rugby) 10 Freddie Burns (Gloucester Rugby) 9 Joe Simpson (London Wasps) 1 Alex Waller (Northampton Saints) 2 Jamie George (Saracens) 3 Tom Mercey (Northampton Saints) 4 Charlie Matthews (Harlequins) 5 George Kruis (Saracens) 6 Calum Clark (Northampton Saints, captain) 7 Luke Wallace (Harlequins) 8 Dave Ewers (Exeter Chiefs)

Replacements
16 Dave Ward (Harlequins) 17 Nathan Catt (Bath Rugby) 18 Scott Wilson (Newcastle Falcons) 19 Elliott Stooke (Gloucester Rugby) 20 Sam Dickinson (Northampton Saints) 21 Dave Lewis (Exeter Chiefs) 22 Henry Slade (Exeter Chiefs) 23 Rob Miller (Sale Sharks)

Ireland Wolfhounds
15. Felix Jones (Shannon/Munster) 14. Fergus McFadden (Old Belvedere/Leinster) 13. Robbie Henshaw (Buccaneers/Connacht) 12. Darren Cave (Belfast Harlequins/Ulster) 11. Craig Gilroy (Dungannon/Ulster) 10. Ian Madigan (Blackrock College/Leinster) 9. Isaac Boss (Terenure College/Leinster) 1. David Kilcoyne (UL Bohemians/Munster) 2. Rob Herring (Ballynahinch/Ulster) 3. Martin Moore (Lansdowne/Leinster) 4. Iain Henderson (Ballynahinch/Ulster) 5. Dan Tuohy (Ballymena/Ulster) 6. Rhys Ruddock (St. Mary's College/Leinster) (capt) 7. Tommy O'Donnell (UL Bohemians/Munster) 8. Robin Copeland (Cardiff Blues)

Replacements:
16. Richardt Strauss (Old Wesley/Leinster) 17. Jack McGrath (St. Mary's College/Leinster) 18. Stephen Archer (Cork Constitution/Munster) 19. Robbie Diack (Malone/Ulster) 20. Jordi Murphy (Lansdowne/Leinster) 21. Kieran Marmion (Corinthians/Connacht) 22. Ian Keatley (Young Munster/Munster) 23. Simon Zebo (Cork Constitution/Munster)