Friday 22 June 2018

The Summer of our Discontent

Maybe its because I haven't watched that much rugby recently, but my thoughts keep going back to Australia 2016 as I watch this current iteration of England snatch disaster from the jaws of competence.

I never got round to writing up my thoughts about that series here but one thing I do remember crystal clear. I wasn't convinced.

Because I couldn't be convinced.

Whitewashing one of SANZAR away from home is about as good as it gets for English rugby short of the World Cup. The opposite is far more regular - worth remembering in the current situation - so for Jones to do so was the single biggest sign he could have given that he was the man. But I couldn't be convinced because I would posit that a lot of people could take an elite sporting side that's on a high and take them to success.

The trick is to take them back to success when they start to fail. And they will fail. Gravity is inevitable. Back in 2016, Jones' England hadn't tasted failure. I didn't know what would happen when they did.

I think we all have a better idea now.

It would be unfair to form permanent judgments on two windows alone, on the 6N after a Lions tour (often bad) and SH tour (often worse). People will judge though, and even the most sober minded will form impressions and note the direction of travel. The direction is backwards, like Wile E Coyote plastered to the front of a train. Pick a criticism, any criticism, and someone will have made it. Most of the time there'll be a kernel of truth to it.

Maybe not more than a kernel though. One of the reasons I keep getting reminded of Australia is this England team looks a lot like the one that faced the Aussies. Same rapier like attack off quick ball and patient bluntness off slow. The continuous blitz defence that leaked opportunities once teams got round it. The players of course - there's been no large turnover.

So why is it going wrong now?

Partly South Africa appear to be better than Australia were then. Partly teams have had more chance to work out Jones. Partly that team relied on ferocious physicality in defence when they could reach them, and Joseph's canny defence to limit the damage out wide - injured Vunipola, fading Haskell, and injured Joseph are big losses there.

Another part is discipline.

The 2016 Wallabies were one of the stupidest and self-harming teams I've ever seen. They gave England so many easy outs and opportunities. The extent to which they shot themselves in the foot remained etched on my mind as I was convinced I'd never see its like again. But I may well be doing so. The sight of Mako Vunipola handing a perfect zone entry to South Africa for... I've no idea why he felt the need to indulge in handbags, but him doing so is getting etched as well.

England in 2016 were outplayed for large swathes of the game, maybe more so than in Australia. It didn't bother them though. They stuck to their game and were rewarded. Come 2018 and England races into leads only to blow them a strong and stable government with a majority.

I don't like being too sure about what's going on in an international team's camp but it looks like something is wrong. England look on edge and easily rattled, trying too hard to snatch the glory moment and with no trust in the process. They look underconfident and overconfident all at once.

And they won't win international games regularly until Eddie Jones fixes this. If he can.