Friday 21 April 2017

England squad reaction

And now for the great entertainer himself.

Good old Eddie. What other coach would decide the best way to enliven a summer tour to Argentina would be to name 15 uncapped players with 4 of them from the U20 squad? They don't even pull that sort of stunt in the countries with only 4 pro teams in a Lions year, nevermind us with a solid 12 to pick from. Well, more than 12 if you count the Championship, which Eddie does. Step forwards Joe Cokasaniga, your time has come. What does Eddie see in him?

"He's big mate. And he's fast."

That's the analytical skills needed to be an international coach folks!

Okay, seriously. This is a shock. The Lions squad? Everyone there made sense if you thought ahead of time which players had unique skill sets or had really proven themselves to the coaches involved. This squad?

We knew there'd be some new faces. There was some talk that maybe a few of the U20s might benefit more from training with Eddie than going to the Junior World Cup. But no one was expecting guys like Isiekwe or Collier. And there's a lot of people who'd pencilled in names like Dan Robson and Marland Yarde who are now quite surprised.

Here's the squad itself, organised by position, with asterisk for vice-captain and double asterisk for captain:

Forwards:

Ellis Genge, Matt Mullan (LH), Will Collier, Paul Hill, Harry Williams (TH) Luke Cowan-Dickie, Dylan Hartley** (HK), Charlie Ewels, Nick Isiekwe, Joe Launchbury (LK), Ben Curry, Tom Curry, James Haskell, Chris Robshaw, Sam Underhill, Tom Wood (FL) Nathan Hughes (N8)

Backs:

Danny Care*, Jack Maunder (SH) George Ford*, Piers Francis, Alex Lozowski (FH), Sam James, Harry Mallinder, Joe Marchant, Henry Slade (CE), Joe Cokanasiga, Nathan Earle, Jonny May, Denny Solomona (WI), Mike Brown* (FB)

The most obvious thing to note is that we've got three vice-captains among the backs and none among the forwards, which is a sure sign of impending apocalypse. If God had wanted backs to have authority, he'd have invented an entirely different game. Its madness. There's also a few positional imbalances. I've no idea whether any of the tightheads are meant to be able to cover loosehead in case of injury, or which of that rather lightweight bunch of back rows is meant to fill in at lock, or who'd be third choice scrum-half. James Haskell at 8 wouldn't be ideal either, although it works, and its interesting to see who's lined up as full-back number 2 if needed; all of Slade, Lozowski and even Mallinder have been mentioned as possibilities there, although I think Earle is the only one in the squad I've seen start a game there. Probably won't come up though.

Looking at the front row and there's a definite commitment to finding a guy who can stand and scrummage all day to succeed Dan Cole. Sinckler and Paul Hill can't half shift and have big hopes of being the complete deal, but Collier and Williams are there in case that doesn't work. Judging from Jones' comments Collier is the more likely of those two to get caps this tour and if he hadn't got injured so much its possible he'd already have. On the other side of the scrum Genge and Mullan are no surprise at all.

Some people will wish Hartley had been left at home. I am one of them. Others will say there was never a chance of a key leader being left out of a raw touring party like this, and for good reason too. I am also one of them. I'd far rather see Luke Cowan-Dickie get starts with Tommy Taylor on the bench than Hartley soak up more game time, but I can see why he's there. Such is life.

I've also have given Launchbury a vice-captaincy. I want to see him be a leader in this England team. But there we go, he'll just have to be gobby and a scene-stealer without any title. Launchbury needs to keep emphasising just how good a player he is. Besides him Charlie Ewels continues his international rise and will hopefully demonstrate what he plans to bring to the England team, because I can't say I've seen it yet. Clearly talented, just I'm not sure it should be happening this soon. U20s aside, I've never seen Isiekwe play. Given the squad make up, caps seem almost inevitable. Should be fun to see.

I have seen the Currys play a bit though. One of them. Not sure which. No one is. If nothing else, its an incredible story - a pair of twins, both natural opensides, reaching the England squad at the age of 18. They're possibly the most exciting players I've seen at that age in the Premiership in forever. I appreciate I've doomed them to being the next Andy Saull - both of them - with those words, but there we go. Between them and Underhill, there's a big chance we finally see the start of a natural openside who sticks the course.

There is also of course a big chance we barely see them due to the three veteran back rows there. There feels like at least one too many. Personally I'd have merrily chopped Wood but there's something to be said for resting one of Haskshaw too. We want those guys to make the next World Cup. At their age, missing a development tour is no bad thing. Maybe we would have if Sam Jones and/or Jack Clifford were available. Then again, maybe not.

I'm also not sold on Danny Care, who has never consistently stolen the scene for England, or even kicked well. I'm a big fan of kicking scrum-halves in both senses of the sentence. I can't say I've heard too much about Maunder's boot but by all accounts, he's more than earned his call up with Exeter.

I am very happy to hear about George Ford getting a leadership role though. This is Ford's big chance to put to bed any notion he needs Farrell around. I am a massive fan of his natural talent but if he shits the bed on this one, the questions about his composure will suddenly get a lot more awkward. I know next to nothing about Piers Francis other than he's a 10/12 and has played Super Rugby so can't be all crap. Famous last words. Lozowski is a player Jones seems to love and I've got an inkling he'll be tried at 12 or 15.

Which leaves him fighting with Henry Slade, the man who was meant to be England's latest wunderkind and is instead... something. People talk about him needing to settle on a position and make it his own and while there's a degree of sense, what he really actually needs to do is to start regularly taking over games and being the best player on the pitch. People see settling in a position as the best way to do that but a) lets not confuse the aim with the method and b) Elliot Daly just earned himself a Lions tour while out of position. If you are good enough, that should be shining through, positional vagueness or not. One of the curses of British rugby are these young backs who have huge oodles of talent but somehow don't quite have the full skillset for any of the positions at the highest level. Stand out international players should have the vision, judgement and athleticism to cut through that bollocks. Slade shows signs of that. It would be great to see the full works.

Speaking of which, Harry Mallinder is an even more pronounced example of this, with the added curiosity of being built like a blindside and routinely accused of being more yellow than the young Danny Cipriani. A summer with Eddie Jones sounds make or break to me. Sam James is another in the mould, except he knows how to use his physicality and oddly for the oversized fly-half reject, has mostly settled on 13. Like Slade had. You get the feeling Jones isn't the keenest on him but, at the same time, respects his intelligence and desire. You'll never have enough players with intelligence and desire. Then there's Joe Marchant aka Jonathan Joseph mk 2. He should get starts.

On the wings, Solomona will be greeted with hissing and spitting from some: the debate about nationality always divides people, but most can agree that a guy who said he wouldn't want to play for England's rugby league team because his heart was with New Zealand and Samoa probably shouldn't be playing for England's rugby union team either. However, the RFU offers a lot of money, he's available, and Eddie Jones likes winning rugby games, so here he is. Jones would have been lynched if he'd ignored an English winger with Solomona's record in Union. Although its a bit odd that the RFU, supposedly in favour of a 5 year residency period no matter what the rest of the world says, haven't quite felt like enforcing just yet. Oh well.

Its possible him and May will keep the others out, but hopefully not. Cokasaniga is, as Jones so expertly pointed out, big and fast. He's 114kg - or, according to the RFU website, a kilo heavier than Isiekwe. Earle is a more conventional 101kg (I think Jones wants a powerhouse winger) but oozes class. Some of the highlights coming back from his time in New Zealand  were very good. Cokasaniga could just be there to learn but Earle should be getting game time.

Then there's Mr Angry. I don't agree with the whole "I hope the Lions only take the England players I don't want for England" crap but, I'll admit, I wouldn't be sad if they decided to call Brown up and allow England a chance at moving on from him. Its a shame Mike Haley got injured in South Africa last year and didn't continue his charge to unseat Brown.

Which leads us onto the interesting part of this - why has Jones gone for such a total shake up of England's fringe and what does it mean for the guys who were there? Remember when Jones kept Itoje back at the start of the last 6N, saying he wasn't ready, that he wanted players to work for it in order to have really great careers? This no longer appears to be true. Jones is known for not letting an interesting story spoil the truth, of course. But what is going on?

That this is a giant kick up the arse for everyone left out goes without saying. There is no room for complacency after this. Everyone needs to go out and bust a gut now. And, based on what we hear of Jones, that alone might have been reason enough to do this.

However, we are also about two years away from the next World Cup and that's really not much time at all to bring players through. Jones has taken this opportunity to get his hands on as many of England's raw talents as possible. He talks about getting 3-4 players up to being better than the players who went on the Lions tour. It won't happen immediately but going straight for the raw talent has given him the best chance of making that happen. And there's no real pressure on him after his incredible start and the amount of attention the Lions will be drawing.

Things could be different in the autumn. Previously Jones had talked about letting Lions players rest then but his stance on that seems to be weakening. He's talked about being willing to lose some battles to win the war, but he won't want to lose too many. Its a bad habit. He's unlikely to be too patient with players who are out of their depth which, lets be honest, could be most of them.

Which could be where all the fringe players come back into the reckoning. Maybe that's his plan. Find out which of the big talents are ready for immediate progression when no one cares, then add them to the usual second string in the Autumn, then see where he is next Six Nations.

Or maybe I'm making a bunch of crap up. In any case, it seems weird to think that guys like Haley, Robson, Ben Spencer, Yarde, Tommy Taylor, Kieran Brookes, Matt Kvesic, Josh Beaumont, Ollie Devoto and so on have no more part to play, particularly given the youth of most of them. But its up to them to make it happen.

Still - interesting thought experiment. This would be my predicted team from the squad:

Brown; May, Marchant, Slade, Solomona; Ford, Care; Mullan, Hartley, Hill, Launchbury, Ewels, Robshaw, Haskell, Hughes; Cowan-Dickie, Genge, Collier, Isiekwe, Underhill, Maunder, Lozowski, Earle

And this is the best team I can think of from the left behind:

Haley; Rokoduguni, Tompkins, Devoto, Yarde; Burns, Spencer; Catt, Taylor, Brookes, Symons, Kitchener, Ewers, Kvesic, Beaumont; McGuigan, Rapava-Ruskin, Cooper-Woolley, Attwood, Chisholm, Robson, Cipriani,Addison

That's a tight game and just about everyone I've named has been part of the England set-up in some way recently enough. So there's definitely a way back.

But for now, we get Uncle Eddie's Youth Revolution. 

Thursday 20 April 2017

Lions squad reaction

Okay, this is a little late, so lets skip to the chase. The midfield. Pretty much no unit does more to dictate how a team plays a game. Lets look at the guys selected by Gatland.

FH: Biggar, Farrell, Sexton
CE: Daly, Davies, Henshaw, Joseph, Payne, Te'o

The commonality is size and aggression. Joseph and Daly are the only two rapiers there. It seems likely neither starts in the centres. Daly's game time has come in the back three and Joseph was strongly rumoured not to be making it only to beat out Ringrose. They took all the big guys they could find who were vaguely up to standard then started looking at other people.

Welcome to Gatlandball.

Which is worrying as all hell.

Reason One - Those lads are big but they're nothing special. There is no prime Roberts or Tuilagi there. Henshaw and Te'o would be the most physical pairing and the All Blacks would respect that pairing, but they'd back themselves to contain it. I'd also back them.

Reason Two - Gatlandball last looked threatening when Wales had a fly-half who could stand flat and deliver. The Lions squad has just one of those players - Sexton. All of the fly-halves with really great timing and zippy passes - Ford, Russell, Jackson - not involved. Farrell might be able to do it on the international arena, what with him having come on a lot since his last meaningful go as an international fly-half, but he might not. Biggar certainly can't. He's proven that with Wales.

The Lions look set to turn up to a gun fight with a knife. A very blunt knife.

Now maybe I'm wrong about Gatland's intentions. Its difficult to believe that with Rob Howley there though. A man doesn't bring his attack coach and chief lieutenant in order to execute a very different plan as a rule.

To be honest, I'm a bit fucked off about it really. I love the Lions, I want them to play great games of rugby and not be more of a source of continual bickering than they have to. I let myself believe that Gatland was willing to adapt to win, and knew that running into a brick wall wouldn't be enough. I also believed that Gatland would recognise that this is no longer 2013 and that Wales aren't top dogs of these isles, they're third at best and arguably fourth.

Instead we get a summer of Gatlandball and people whining about the 12 Welshmen in the squad. I'm not really feeling the urge to be a part of that. I don't really want a Lions squad that does things by the Baabaas ethos, or looks for representative quotas, so I guess I've got to accept days like these, but that doesn't mean I have to like it. Hopefully I'm wrong.

Anyway, rage aside, its a pretty decent squad. The game has kicked on a lot in the last four years around these parts. Hell, most of the players I've complained about would have been totally non-contentious on the last two tours.

All hopes of a Lions victory lies with the pack. If they can beat up the All Black pack then there's a chance. They probably can't, but it is loaded with great forwards and theirs isn't the strongest. I think the Lions can edge this up front which would be no mean feat - just not the walloping needed.

Speaking of the forwards, lets talk about the most controversial omission of the tour; Launchbury. He's arguably been the best forward available to Gatland this Six Nations and the best lock of the last four years. Its a bit bloody bonkers he's not going. That said, its difficult to argue with any of the five going as being bad calls. Personally, I'd have taken one less back row (bye bye Moriarty) and one more second row, what with it being a lot easier for locks to cover the back row than vice versa.

I suspect Launch might go anyway. Its an attritional business at the best of times and Lawes and Henderson have form for breaking the moment someone looks at them. Of course, maybe Gatland will just take Jonny Gray or Donnacha Ryan or someone else. That would be even more mad but hey, this is Gatland.

Being a bit serious for a moment though, this smells pretty bad for Launchbury, as it seems pretty likely that Borthwick agreed with the selection and Launchbury being 4th of England's locks. Its one thing to have Gatland be a nutter and do you out of two Lions tours, but when the England forwards coach has a downer on you... anyway, let this be a lesson to any aspiring young forwards. The only area where Launchbury definitely loses out to his peers is the line out and this is the second tour in succession where lineout ability has been highly valued by the selectors. So practice your jumping. Incidentally, wouldn't be at all surprised to see O'Mahony start for this very reason. Not sure why some are calling him a surprise. In fact, I'd go so far as to say there's no surprise inclusions in that squad. 

Anyway, that's about it. News that Murray might miss the tour due to injury is even more depressing than the midfield selection. Marler and Sinckler are worthy enough calls, but I'm not all that sure someone other than their club coach would have taken both. Launchbury and creative fly-halves aside, there are no really weird omissions. I could write a lot more but I'm fairly sure that injury and form would render it pointless before then anyway. Besides, there's also the England squad to go through...

Full squad list:

Forwards: Rory Best (Ireland), Dan Cole (England), Taulupe Faletau (Wales), Tadhg Furlong (Ireland), Jamie George (England), Iain Henderson (Ireland), Maro Itoje (England), Alun Wyn Jones (Wales), George Kruis (England), Courtney Lawes (England), Joe Marler (England), Jack McGrath (Ireland), Ross Moriarty (Wales), Sean O'Brien (Ireland), Peter O'Mahony (Ireland), Ken Owens (Wales), Kyle Sinckler (England), CJ Stander (Ireland), Justin Tipuric (Wales), Billy Vunipola (England), Mako Vunipola (England), Sam Warburton (Wales)
Backs: Dan Biggar (Wales), Elliot Daly (England), Jonathan Davies (Wales), Owen Farrell (England), Leigh Halfpenny (Wales), Robbie Henshaw (Ireland), Stuart Hogg (Scotland), Jonathan Joseph (England), Conor Murray (Ireland), George North (Wales), Jack Nowell (England), Jared Payne (Ireland), Johnny Sexton (Ireland), Tommy Seymour (Scotland), Ben Te'o (England), Anthony Watson (England), Rhys Webb (Wales), Liam Williams (Wales), Ben Youngs (England)