Lets start this with an odd statement: the more injuries England get, the more interested I am in these Autumn Internationals.
Not that I lacked interest, you understand. All international rugby is good international rugby and England have a complete an unbeaten calender year. The thing is that this year has come a little easy by the standards of international rugby. England’s main opponents in that time period - Wales, Ireland, Australia - were all below their usual standard. I don’t want to dismiss the impact of England’s pressure game and ferocity on them - good teams make other teams look bad - but all three of them had recently shown they could play better at this level.
It is a firm belief of mine that looking good as a coach is relatively easy when things are going well. Eddie Jones inherited a strong team where the main problems were morale, direction, and that last little bit of star quality. All he had to do was give them the first two and reap a waiting harvest with the latter; England have been crying out for a tight five ball carrier like Maro Itoje for a long, long time. Things have, by and large, gone well for him.
Not so much now. England had been fairly injury free in the first choice 23 since Jones took over. The loss of the first choice locks and wingers, as well as the injury to Haskell and just about everyone who may have replaced him, puts a very different complexion on things. And as a cherry on top, Joseph has dropped onto the bench amid reports of a groin injury.
I don’t want to overdo this argument. Jones’ unfamiliarity with his squad led him to a couple of iffy choices down in Australia and he made his own good fortune with his ruthlessness in changing what wasn’t working. And by and large, the men coming into the squad as injury replacements are highly talented players in their own right. This is a weakened England team but not a weak one. Nevertheless, I feel that we’ll have a better idea of just how good an England coach Jones is after this autumn.
The injury count could have been worse mind. There were doubts over Mako Vunipola and Hartley coming into this series - the presence of Tommy Taylor in the 25 squad prior to the final cull testament to the latter. Instead they’ll line up with Dan Cole against South Africa. On the bench are men who could have replaced them with zero fuss and will replace them with zero fuss during the second half. I’d even go so far as to say I’d prefer if Marler and George replaced Vunipola and Hartley in the starting team full stop. Kyle Sinckler has earned far less trust and it will be interesting to see how he goes. He’s an international class athlete - the question is whether he’s an international class prop. Don’t be surprised if Dan Cole plays a very long shift.
Joe Launchbury and Courtney Lawes fall more into the trusted variety of replacement. Indeed, I wish Jones played Launchbury a lot more. However, with Itoje being the all action man who has sparked England’s renaissance, and Kruis installed as lineout general, it will be a difficult task for man to keep their shirt. Dave Attwood returns to the bench and it will be interesting to see how he slots into Jones’ game plan. I came to the conclusion that Attwood simply wasn’t mobile enough for international rugby when Lancaster was in charge; others saw Attwood as harshly done by and providing the bulk that could have transformed England’s pack. The two opinions aren’t completely mutually exclusive and if Jones wants Attwood to cover less ground, we could see the best of the Bath lock.
In the back row, Tom Wood completes what was a very unlikely seeming reunion with Robshaw and Billy Vunipola at the start of Jones’ tenure. This is the man described by Uncle Eddie as ‘average’ and the man had a point. The rebuttal is that being an average international player is incredibly difficult, as witnessed by the lack of alternatives. He’s been fortunate with injury but I have a sneaking suspicion that Wood may very well take his chance. He won’t be surprised by the pace of the game, like Harrison was in Australia, and was always at his best playing a straight forwards abrasive game. He won’t hit as hard as Haskell but his decision making at the breakdown is better. On the bench, Nathan Hughes gets his chance despite reports of being underwhelming for Wasps. Neither stardom nor failure would surprise me if/when he gets onto the pitch. He has the power to be a star; his inexperience and lack of discipline could see him fail. I suspect he’ll be somewhere in the middle.
The 9-10-12 combo remains set and could do so for some time. Many England fans cry out for deliverance from Ben Youngs, refusing to believe a scrum-half with such a comparatively poor pass and tardy decision making at the breakdown can't be good enough. I disagree - for me he's a game breaker around the fringes and does a lot of the simple things well enough. Whatever the truth is, Youngs' service hasn't been slowing down George Ford too much. Ford looked like the heir to Carter as the world's next great fly-half during the tour to Australia. Everybody knows about his skill in opening up defences but his ability to look up and put a team all the way back into their half with his boot is becoming more and more talked about. Whether he could be the complete package and kicks the goals will remain unproven for some with Farrell there. When things have been going well, this trio have been devastating, but whether it will work if the pack's forwards momentum goes missing and someone needs to physically challenge the line remains to be seen.
It certainly won't be Elliot Daly physically challenging the line. Anyone who isn't excited to see Daly finally getting his chance lacks either eyes or soul, but I think we can all agree out and out power isn't in his arsenal. Part of me expects to be disappointed; Joseph hasn't been able to find much space in this system and Daly is similar enough that I don't see things being too much different. Part of me expects Daly to find more gaps because opponents won't be watching him as closely. Yes, the fence is very comfy. In any case, the real questions about Daly are what happens when the other team has the ball. There's no doubt he can tackle but he hasn't proven that he's got the same judgement and defensive positioning as Joseph, who's quietly proven himself a very good international defender. If things go wrong, expect to see Joseph sprang from the bench early.
On the wings we have Not-Semesa Rokoduguni and Not-Semesa Rokoduguni. The exclusion of Rokoduguni is mystifying. He's the most powerful winger England have, arguably the best pure try scorer, a guy who can shut down prime Savea in defence, and seemingly without flaw at Premiership level. Whatever Jones is seeing that the rest of us don't, I'd love to know. Yarde and May aren't bad players by any stretch but better than Rokoduguni? In any case, they have the start and if they play well they can stay in the line up when Watson and Nowell return, particularly if Mike Brown continues to underwhelm. That will involve doing better than Watson and Nowell did with their defensive duties in the summer and if the team continues to expose their wings to so many 2 on 1s, it will be very difficult for them. If it does go very difficult, it wouldn't be a surprise to see Joseph brought on here.
This leaves one player unmentioned: Ben Te'o. I've been a fan of his since watching him in a Leinster shirt and with Tuilagi simply unable to stay fit, Te'o is possibly England's only international class battering ram. There's no guarantees he'll step up on the next level up - I reckon he will though and, if the pack does struggle with no Itoje, he could be crucial in this match. I was going to talk a little about player eligibility and compare the situation with him and Hughes but then I realised I don't care. They're playing, that's the main thing.
And they're playing in a decent team. This is a pleasant new situation where I look at an England team and I look at the SH team in question and I don't think there's much to pick in terms of talent. England have home advantage, South Africa have the confidence that comes from knowing you've got an opponent's number. Everything points to a nice close match - everything except the coaching staffs. Allister Coetzee hasn't looked at home in international rugby so far. Eddie Jones? Well, he's looked quite good so far.
Time to find out just how good he is.
Thursday 10 November 2016
Tuesday 30 August 2016
A matter of trust
In the past week or so we have seen Owen Franks go uncited for what appears to be an eye gouge on Kane Douglas in the Bledisloe Cup. We have also seen Cillian Willis start legal proceedings against former club Sale for alleged clinical negligence over a career ending concussion. Two very different cases about how the game goes off the field but with a common link. The common link is trust.
There has been a huge amount of disbelief over the Franks non-citing. Of course there is. The video here (complete with music to let you know how evil Franks is) looks very much to me like contact was made with the eye and that Franks was looking to do so. I'm not a hundred per cent certain that's a gouge but based on that angle, its reckless contact with the eye area, an offence that usually results in eight or so weeks off.
The magic words in the last sentence though were 'based on that angle'. We've all seen the cameras tell us one thing from one angle and another from another. You'd like to think SANZAR have more camera angles than just two to work with. Maybe on one of them there was clearly no case to answer. Certainly Poite had a fantastic view of the incident (as Kiwi fans keep telling me) and felt no need to even penalise Franks.
Once again though, we've all seen the ref stare directly at a big decision and get it wrong according to the citing committee. As such, I do not trust Poite - or any other ref - to have definitely got that one right. More crucially, I do not trust the SANZAR citing committee.
Why should I? Any rugby fan with a brain has grown wearily accustomed by now to the random nature of the sport's disciplinary process. An offence may garner a ban one week and nothing the next. Complaints of bias and political influence are common place. I say this not to indicate that I believe them but merely to indicate the perceived scale of injustice. Fans often find the calls so bewildering that its easier to believe in conspiracy than it is to believe in incompetence.
If Cillian Willis is to be believed, there's some of that incompetence going around Sale too. According to the BBC report, Willis was twice treated for a head injury in a game with Saracens in March 2013, but was allowed to keep playing.
Given how little we know I'd be hesitant to say Sale have been negligent but in general I support the case. The majority of rugby fans I've talked to have. Again, this is an issue of trust. It is very plausible to us that a professional rugby club have treated an injury with too little caution. There is a never ending litany of stories from the sport of clubs doing so. Often, it should be noted, with the connivance of the players. Players want to play. The buck stops with the club though. It is up to coaches and medical staff to say "You have to come off."
By and large, I don't think fans trust the clubs to do the right thing. Just like they don't trust citing committees to do the right thing. And this is a problem. A lack of trust is corrosive. Sometimes it takes a long time for it to cause problems but usually, sooner or later, it does.
It is up to the various bodies involved whether they want to act on this. Issuing a video of an angle clearing Franks would stop the story dead. Of course, it would introduce a new standard for citing committees where they explain their work properly, with failures to do so being incredibly suspicious, but I think only people on citing committees would see this as a bad thing.
Similarly, Premiership clubs could look at the introduction of independent medical examiners, or just accept that concussion is an issue where erring on the side of caution is safer. Or introduce annual fMRI scans instead of relying on the neurological tests that we all know players cheat. Rugby has improved its stance on concussion but there is a way to go as we can see from this.
Taking such measures would help restore the trust of fans. We will now see whether those involved had any appetite for doing so - or whether they just want to avoid being sued.
There has been a huge amount of disbelief over the Franks non-citing. Of course there is. The video here (complete with music to let you know how evil Franks is) looks very much to me like contact was made with the eye and that Franks was looking to do so. I'm not a hundred per cent certain that's a gouge but based on that angle, its reckless contact with the eye area, an offence that usually results in eight or so weeks off.
The magic words in the last sentence though were 'based on that angle'. We've all seen the cameras tell us one thing from one angle and another from another. You'd like to think SANZAR have more camera angles than just two to work with. Maybe on one of them there was clearly no case to answer. Certainly Poite had a fantastic view of the incident (as Kiwi fans keep telling me) and felt no need to even penalise Franks.
Once again though, we've all seen the ref stare directly at a big decision and get it wrong according to the citing committee. As such, I do not trust Poite - or any other ref - to have definitely got that one right. More crucially, I do not trust the SANZAR citing committee.
Why should I? Any rugby fan with a brain has grown wearily accustomed by now to the random nature of the sport's disciplinary process. An offence may garner a ban one week and nothing the next. Complaints of bias and political influence are common place. I say this not to indicate that I believe them but merely to indicate the perceived scale of injustice. Fans often find the calls so bewildering that its easier to believe in conspiracy than it is to believe in incompetence.
If Cillian Willis is to be believed, there's some of that incompetence going around Sale too. According to the BBC report, Willis was twice treated for a head injury in a game with Saracens in March 2013, but was allowed to keep playing.
Given how little we know I'd be hesitant to say Sale have been negligent but in general I support the case. The majority of rugby fans I've talked to have. Again, this is an issue of trust. It is very plausible to us that a professional rugby club have treated an injury with too little caution. There is a never ending litany of stories from the sport of clubs doing so. Often, it should be noted, with the connivance of the players. Players want to play. The buck stops with the club though. It is up to coaches and medical staff to say "You have to come off."
By and large, I don't think fans trust the clubs to do the right thing. Just like they don't trust citing committees to do the right thing. And this is a problem. A lack of trust is corrosive. Sometimes it takes a long time for it to cause problems but usually, sooner or later, it does.
It is up to the various bodies involved whether they want to act on this. Issuing a video of an angle clearing Franks would stop the story dead. Of course, it would introduce a new standard for citing committees where they explain their work properly, with failures to do so being incredibly suspicious, but I think only people on citing committees would see this as a bad thing.
Similarly, Premiership clubs could look at the introduction of independent medical examiners, or just accept that concussion is an issue where erring on the side of caution is safer. Or introduce annual fMRI scans instead of relying on the neurological tests that we all know players cheat. Rugby has improved its stance on concussion but there is a way to go as we can see from this.
Taking such measures would help restore the trust of fans. We will now see whether those involved had any appetite for doing so - or whether they just want to avoid being sued.
Monday 8 August 2016
A quick look at the provisional EPS backs
SH
Care, Robson, Simpson, Youngs B
One of the biggest causes of bellyaching about the selection to tour Australia was the presence of only two scrum-halves.A great many England fans have run out of patience with the continued flaws in the games of Danny Care and Ben Youngs and consequently were quite disgruntled to see them given the run of the place during the summer. By naming Wasps duo Joe Simpson and Dan Robson to the squad, Eddie Jones is now threatening to end the duopoly that's dominated the England scrum-half shirt for the last six years.
Until we see a match day squad though, it is only a threat. Youngs and Care will look at Simpson and Robson and they will not be terrified. Simpson has always been birds of a feather with Youngs and Care - electrifying break, ramshackle basics. That he has improved recently in the last couple of years is beyond doubt but whether he's now a better choice for England isn't. It is not a coincidence that his upsurge in form has come with Wasps renaissance as a side. Dan Robson too is a beneficiary of this new machine. Everyone thought he had potential at Gloucester but the calls for him to be an international only truly took off at Wasps. He probably has the best combination of passing and kicking out of any English scrum-half in contention but that does not mean he is the complete article. The Saxons' second test in South Africa showed that.
A few political commentators have described their 2015 vote for Corbyn as being "not for the surfer, but the wave". It is an analogy that works well in rugby. The team's form is the wave. The individual player is the surfer. All four scrum-halves have put in some fantastic performances at every level they've played but, as is perhaps traditional for the position, have form for going badly missing when things get a bit messy. They are surfers, utterly dependent on the team to make the wave for them. For a player to beat the Youngs/Care duopoly, they will have to prove they are more. Simpson probably isn't. Robson maybe will be. Until someone improves on them it will be the same old story - England winning most of their matches, the scrum-halves vilified as inadequate. There are worse places to be.
FH
Farrell, Ford
From one big complaint of the summer to another - the lack of Cipriani.
Look, there isn't a lot to be said about Ford and Farrell at this point. We know what we're getting, even if there are disagreements on what exactly that is. There have been some very big criticisms of both players (guilty as charged here) but they are both definitely capable enough. The main question therefore is what happens if one or both were to get injured.
Currently the squad suggests the plan is Henry Slade. His professional rugby experience to date is mostly in the centre. He has done enough at fly-half to suggest he could be a future international there but it would be a very brave man who played someone with his limited experience as their third choice fly-half. This 45 man squad seemingly only has two fly-halves.
So why not Cipriani? If not him, then why not Freddie Burns, who was back to his best for Leicester prior to getting injured. They are both international class fly-halves; its not like they'd be including a no-hoper just to make the numbers up. It seems likely Jones is very deliberately focusing everything on Ford and Farrell, but would having a third fly-half around really be such a distraction? Is having that extra forward around really worth the risk that we'll thrust out an unprepared player should both fly-halves get injured? The chances of that happening are small, but not so small as to be completely ignored.
The decision to omit Cipriani (or like player) is confusing. Hopefully it will not be damaging.
C
Daly, Farrell, Joseph, Marchant, Slade, Te'o, Tuilagi
This is a lot of centres.
The easiest to comment on are the speedsters. Joseph has the shirt, Daly deserves a crack at it, Marchant is a very exciting prospect for the future. The only real note of interest here is that the presence of Marchant would seem to indicate Jones has committed fully to the idea of a speedster at outside-centre.
The question mark is over inside-centre. Farrell has the shirt. There is no pressing "move or lose" reason for him not to have it. Plenty of good reasons, but nothing argument clinching. The presence of Henry Slade says a playmaking centre is more than a convenience. But playmaking is the second last word we'd associate with Tuilagi and Te'o, coming right after small.
Does Jones know how best to use these centres? Was Burrell's first test start a reflection on Jones' desire for physicality or a temporary loss of faith in Ford? Tuilagi didn't make the tour, Te'o missed training days before the first test due to injury. Would things have been different if they'd started that first test? Eight tests in and it feels like England are still somewhat in flux in this position. How does this end?
The most likely answer for now seems to be Farrell at 12 with Te'o or Tuilagi on the bench. Such a move would give England a lot of flexibility and a difficult to cope with Plan B. You could easily reverse that and have the big man start too. But what if Jones continues his love affair with the 6-2 bench? You could cover the whole back-line with only one centre but a back three man seems more likely.
In summation, the selection seems reminiscent of Lancaster's days. An awful lot of possible answers for playing in the centres but very little certainty and very little appetite to test them. Hopefully the situation will start to resolve itself in the autumn.
WI
May, Nowell, Rokoduguni, Watson, Yarde
Not a good EPS if your name began with C. Ashton has dropped from EPS to Saxons to potentially not involved at all in just a few short months. Its a bit early to say anything definite about whether he's done but it would no longer be a surprise. Similarly, if Wade never gets a chance to show his skills on the biggest stage it will be a crying shame, but no longer a shock.
That cannot be stated with absolute confidence as all the players named have something of the curate's egg to them. The four of them not named Semesa Rokoduguni have all shown top drawer attacking ability and considerable defensive weaknesses. Its always a struggle to defend a wing once the opposition have created space and numbers, but Watson and Nowell made it look particularly hard this summer. May is usually good in those situations but has not always completed his tackles. Marland Yarde possibly combines the worst of both worlds.
Rokoduguni - arguably the most dangerous of the five at Premiership level - has had less chances at international level. One of them in fact. That time he was very solid in defence and forgotten about in attack. He could be the best of them but at the age of 28, Jones is unlikely to be patient with him. It happens very soon or not at all.
Wing is a position waiting for talented players to add that extra 10% and nail down the shirt. Watson has come closest and will almost certainly start this autumn, but an indifferent summer has hauled him back a little. However, while we wait for the perfect player, there is at least plenty of pace and power to be going on with. Cast your mind back to the time of Cueto, and reflect just how much worse it could be.
FB
Brown, Goode, Haley
Last but not least, the full-backs.
A considerable number of England fans would like Mike Brown dropped. The steady flow of small mistakes is eroding trust and concentrating attention on the flaws in his game. His lack of pace and linking play are both held up on these occasions. His strengths - the ability to make ground and contribute to try scoring chances - are often overlooked.
The problem with replacing Brown is every player must be replaced by someone better and Alex Goode has never shown himself to be that man. Maybe the times have a-changed and... well, maybe not. There's a lot of words on Alex Goode on this blog. More seem unnecessary until such time as Goode is on a pitch in an England shirt.
So if neither are happy* options - which may be an overstatement, particularly concerning Brown - then who? Anthony Watson? There's an interesting case to be made there but Mike Haley might be about to put a spanner in the works there. He backed up a strong season for Sale with an outstanding first test for the Saxons in South Africa before getting injured early in the second. He has shown every desirable trait at least in glimpses - pace, elusiveness, kicking, taking the high ball, linking - and at the age of 22, is still improving. With it possibly preferable to keep Watson's finishing ability out wide and few other young Englishmen getting regular time in the position, there is a window of opportunity opening if Haley is good enough to take advantage of it. We will see how highly Jones rates him but right now, Haley looks like to be one of the most exciting players in the EPS.
*It must be conceded that happy is very rarely a good adjective to use in connection with Mike Brown.
Care, Robson, Simpson, Youngs B
One of the biggest causes of bellyaching about the selection to tour Australia was the presence of only two scrum-halves.A great many England fans have run out of patience with the continued flaws in the games of Danny Care and Ben Youngs and consequently were quite disgruntled to see them given the run of the place during the summer. By naming Wasps duo Joe Simpson and Dan Robson to the squad, Eddie Jones is now threatening to end the duopoly that's dominated the England scrum-half shirt for the last six years.
Until we see a match day squad though, it is only a threat. Youngs and Care will look at Simpson and Robson and they will not be terrified. Simpson has always been birds of a feather with Youngs and Care - electrifying break, ramshackle basics. That he has improved recently in the last couple of years is beyond doubt but whether he's now a better choice for England isn't. It is not a coincidence that his upsurge in form has come with Wasps renaissance as a side. Dan Robson too is a beneficiary of this new machine. Everyone thought he had potential at Gloucester but the calls for him to be an international only truly took off at Wasps. He probably has the best combination of passing and kicking out of any English scrum-half in contention but that does not mean he is the complete article. The Saxons' second test in South Africa showed that.
A few political commentators have described their 2015 vote for Corbyn as being "not for the surfer, but the wave". It is an analogy that works well in rugby. The team's form is the wave. The individual player is the surfer. All four scrum-halves have put in some fantastic performances at every level they've played but, as is perhaps traditional for the position, have form for going badly missing when things get a bit messy. They are surfers, utterly dependent on the team to make the wave for them. For a player to beat the Youngs/Care duopoly, they will have to prove they are more. Simpson probably isn't. Robson maybe will be. Until someone improves on them it will be the same old story - England winning most of their matches, the scrum-halves vilified as inadequate. There are worse places to be.
FH
Farrell, Ford
From one big complaint of the summer to another - the lack of Cipriani.
Look, there isn't a lot to be said about Ford and Farrell at this point. We know what we're getting, even if there are disagreements on what exactly that is. There have been some very big criticisms of both players (guilty as charged here) but they are both definitely capable enough. The main question therefore is what happens if one or both were to get injured.
Currently the squad suggests the plan is Henry Slade. His professional rugby experience to date is mostly in the centre. He has done enough at fly-half to suggest he could be a future international there but it would be a very brave man who played someone with his limited experience as their third choice fly-half. This 45 man squad seemingly only has two fly-halves.
So why not Cipriani? If not him, then why not Freddie Burns, who was back to his best for Leicester prior to getting injured. They are both international class fly-halves; its not like they'd be including a no-hoper just to make the numbers up. It seems likely Jones is very deliberately focusing everything on Ford and Farrell, but would having a third fly-half around really be such a distraction? Is having that extra forward around really worth the risk that we'll thrust out an unprepared player should both fly-halves get injured? The chances of that happening are small, but not so small as to be completely ignored.
The decision to omit Cipriani (or like player) is confusing. Hopefully it will not be damaging.
C
Daly, Farrell, Joseph, Marchant, Slade, Te'o, Tuilagi
This is a lot of centres.
The easiest to comment on are the speedsters. Joseph has the shirt, Daly deserves a crack at it, Marchant is a very exciting prospect for the future. The only real note of interest here is that the presence of Marchant would seem to indicate Jones has committed fully to the idea of a speedster at outside-centre.
The question mark is over inside-centre. Farrell has the shirt. There is no pressing "move or lose" reason for him not to have it. Plenty of good reasons, but nothing argument clinching. The presence of Henry Slade says a playmaking centre is more than a convenience. But playmaking is the second last word we'd associate with Tuilagi and Te'o, coming right after small.
Does Jones know how best to use these centres? Was Burrell's first test start a reflection on Jones' desire for physicality or a temporary loss of faith in Ford? Tuilagi didn't make the tour, Te'o missed training days before the first test due to injury. Would things have been different if they'd started that first test? Eight tests in and it feels like England are still somewhat in flux in this position. How does this end?
The most likely answer for now seems to be Farrell at 12 with Te'o or Tuilagi on the bench. Such a move would give England a lot of flexibility and a difficult to cope with Plan B. You could easily reverse that and have the big man start too. But what if Jones continues his love affair with the 6-2 bench? You could cover the whole back-line with only one centre but a back three man seems more likely.
In summation, the selection seems reminiscent of Lancaster's days. An awful lot of possible answers for playing in the centres but very little certainty and very little appetite to test them. Hopefully the situation will start to resolve itself in the autumn.
WI
May, Nowell, Rokoduguni, Watson, Yarde
Not a good EPS if your name began with C. Ashton has dropped from EPS to Saxons to potentially not involved at all in just a few short months. Its a bit early to say anything definite about whether he's done but it would no longer be a surprise. Similarly, if Wade never gets a chance to show his skills on the biggest stage it will be a crying shame, but no longer a shock.
That cannot be stated with absolute confidence as all the players named have something of the curate's egg to them. The four of them not named Semesa Rokoduguni have all shown top drawer attacking ability and considerable defensive weaknesses. Its always a struggle to defend a wing once the opposition have created space and numbers, but Watson and Nowell made it look particularly hard this summer. May is usually good in those situations but has not always completed his tackles. Marland Yarde possibly combines the worst of both worlds.
Rokoduguni - arguably the most dangerous of the five at Premiership level - has had less chances at international level. One of them in fact. That time he was very solid in defence and forgotten about in attack. He could be the best of them but at the age of 28, Jones is unlikely to be patient with him. It happens very soon or not at all.
Wing is a position waiting for talented players to add that extra 10% and nail down the shirt. Watson has come closest and will almost certainly start this autumn, but an indifferent summer has hauled him back a little. However, while we wait for the perfect player, there is at least plenty of pace and power to be going on with. Cast your mind back to the time of Cueto, and reflect just how much worse it could be.
FB
Brown, Goode, Haley
Last but not least, the full-backs.
A considerable number of England fans would like Mike Brown dropped. The steady flow of small mistakes is eroding trust and concentrating attention on the flaws in his game. His lack of pace and linking play are both held up on these occasions. His strengths - the ability to make ground and contribute to try scoring chances - are often overlooked.
The problem with replacing Brown is every player must be replaced by someone better and Alex Goode has never shown himself to be that man. Maybe the times have a-changed and... well, maybe not. There's a lot of words on Alex Goode on this blog. More seem unnecessary until such time as Goode is on a pitch in an England shirt.
So if neither are happy* options - which may be an overstatement, particularly concerning Brown - then who? Anthony Watson? There's an interesting case to be made there but Mike Haley might be about to put a spanner in the works there. He backed up a strong season for Sale with an outstanding first test for the Saxons in South Africa before getting injured early in the second. He has shown every desirable trait at least in glimpses - pace, elusiveness, kicking, taking the high ball, linking - and at the age of 22, is still improving. With it possibly preferable to keep Watson's finishing ability out wide and few other young Englishmen getting regular time in the position, there is a window of opportunity opening if Haley is good enough to take advantage of it. We will see how highly Jones rates him but right now, Haley looks like to be one of the most exciting players in the EPS.
*It must be conceded that happy is very rarely a good adjective to use in connection with Mike Brown.
Thursday 4 August 2016
A quick look at the provisional EPS forwards
LHP
Genge, Marler, Mullan, Vunipola M
It should be noted straight away that this is a provisional squad and that things might change. The anger and approval directed at full squads is rarely proportionate with how much they actually mean at the best of times, nevermind when dealing with a 45 man squad that will be changed anyway.
This is said because the inclusion of four looseheads is slightly odd. Do we need four? If four is the minimum number for the front row, there would be four tightheads too. There are not. Is there any particular reason to have four? Ellis Genge is still incredibly raw. While Uncle Eddie's logic for including him for the future is obvious, it would not have been a sin to put him in England's development squad while he learns his trade with Leicester. He is not likely to burst into the England team anytime soon. Nor, more damningly, is Matt Mullan. He had a chance to dislodge the established order in Australia and certainly could have done more to take it. A squad of 45 means not everyone must be a contender but to have two players in a position that are not smacks of indulgence.
It is possible that the reason for this is continued concern over Joe Marler's mental stability. His decision to stay home from Australia to sort things out in his own head was a wise one, but that does not mean it is the end of the matter. It feels distasteful and futile to speculate too much about a player's mental health so it is best to mention this as a possibility and move on for now. Time will tell where Marler is; if he is at his best, Mullan and Genge will face a big struggle to get into the team.
HK
Cowan-Dickie, George, Hartley, Youngs T
The rescue of the good ship Tom Youngs from the waters of international abandonment must have surprised many, particularly after Tommy Taylor's useful summer in a white jersey. The move should be welcomed for all his noted frailties at the set-piece, Youngs' experience and proven impact in the international arena are too valuable to be thrown lightly away.
Whether he is likely to make the team again anytime soon is another matter. Captain Hartley is currently cemented to his place when fit, although the possibility of another concussion must be in Jones' thoughts after last season. Jamie George has not had much time off of the bench but has used what he has extremely well and the argument that he is England's outright best hooker grows louder and louder.
That leaves Youngs scrapping with Luke Cowan-Dickie, a player in a very similar mould. Their inclusion in the squad ahead of Taylor suggests that Jones' devotion to a rock solid set-piece only goes so far. There are now three outstanding loose players competing for a position here, hinting at Jones' future direction. It seems likely that whoever nails their set-piece duties wins third place behind George but until we see how much Jones likes Tom Youngs, it is hard to be confident on the matter. One thing is sure though; the return of Youngs to contention is a great shot in the arm for depth and competition in the hooker position.
THP
Cole, Hill, Sinckler
In the space of just over a year, Paul Hill and Kyle Sinckler have leapfrogged a long queue of English tightheads for this position. Dave Wilson, Kieron Brookes and Henry Thomas all have reason to believe they can reverse this position. All three currently have greater experience than the men in the EPS (I think, Hill's cap count may not be accurate on wikipedia) and that points directly to the current weakness England possess in the position.
England's first choice tighthead is Dan Cole. England's second choice tighthead is Dan Cole on crutches. There is no competition. There is no plan B that doesn't involve a gamble. That is the current situation.
That is not a criticism of Jones' choice of player. It seems quite likely he has the right of it. Nor is it meant to say that the other players are incapable of challenging Cole at some point in the future, possibly quite soon in the future. It is instead saying that they're currently not at that level of form and/or potential. No one knows for sure when any of them will be.
It is simply a bald statement of fact that as of now, England are very dependent on Dan Cole's continuing form and fitness.
LK
Ewels, Itoje, Kruis, Lawes, Launchbury, (Williams)
Many a word has been written in praise of England's second row power quartet. Joyous as it would be to write more, this is being written in quite a hurry due to the EPS being released quite a few days before, so let us just say the position is strong. Any combination of the four would register as quite acceptable in anyone's team, even New Zealand's.
The interesting decisions then are the two understudies. Neither of Charlie Ewels and Mike Williams are household names nor are they the obvious choices. Indeed, both are at clubs with more vaunted men; Attwood at Bath for Ewels, Slater and Kitchener at Tigers for Williams. The most obvious reason for these choices would seem to be that Jones believes he has the present locked down and is turning to prospects with the highest ceilings to fill out his squad. That seems reasonable but the identity of any development squad locks is now a matter of mild curiosity.
What should be expected of them? Ewels is the classic beanpole lock, although not particularly tall at 6'6". He has been highly thought of all the way through age grade, captaining England U20s, but he did not particularly show that promise on tour in South Africa. Given his age though - he is only 20 - that is not particularly surprising. If he stays as mobile while packing on the muscle, he has a fair chance of being another George Kruis. As for Williams - well, Leicester fans would say he's better discussed below
FL
Evans, Harrison, Haskell, Robshaw, Williams
The situation is reminiscent of that at tighthead; Haskell and Robshaw start unless badly injured. Of course, Haskell is badly injured, so now we must find out what will be done next.
Will Evans is probably not a live option just yet. He is after all, only 19 and 14 stone 4 lbs. His inclusion is a sign of his huge potential but it would be amazing if he replaced Haskell come the autumn.
Mike Williams is unlikely to either, being a definite blindside flanker. Being 24 and over 18 stones, he is physically ready to step in if called upon, but he needs Robshaw to fall over for that. Leicester fans have been very excited with him, so maybe he would be in line if that did happen. Maybe. Its quite possible one of the 8s or locks would benefit instead.
Of course the beneficiary to injury woes could be Teimana Harrison. Yes, he froze down under, but he showed definite signs of promise against Wales and should be stronger for both experiences. He's got aggression, he's got abrasiveness, he's got ability... has he got a future? Time will tell. Still, for now, it is not obvious which of these players would replace Haskell in the autumn. Perhaps none of them.
8
Beaumont, Clifford, Hughes, Vunipola
Apparently Jones has talked about Nathan Hughes as a possible Haskell replacement. And we know Jack Clifford can play openside too, to a certain level. We also know they're both capable of doing quite remarkable things on a rugby field. Likewise Josh Beaumont and,of course, Billy Vunipola.
The competition for England's number 8 shirt is currently quite nominal. Vunipola is the proven man, the rest are possible contenders, and Vunipola has no intention of letting anyone else advance beyond that point. Only the exiled Ben Morgan brings similar levels of experience. At some point though, the others will get chances and they will start to take them and we will have a real battle royale on.
As such, it is possible some of the players will start seeking to demonstrate their versatility. Beaumont, for example, is perfectly capable of playing lock (he is in fact the joint tallest man in this squad). Clifford has played all over the back row and while he needs to up his work rate and breakdown impact to be an England starter, he could well do so. Hughes is the only out and out 8 in the group - even Vunipola's played more elsewhere - but, as noted, Jones is thinking of him as an openside. Why not? He is effective at the breakdown, he is quick, and he is awesomely powerful. As a Haskell substitute, he is the most like for like in the squad. Definitely a case of watch this space.
Friday 10 June 2016
South Africa A vs England Saxons Preview
Teams
SA 'A': 15 Leolin Zas, 14 Travis Ismaiel, 13 Francois Venter, 12 Howard Mnisi, 11 Courtnall Skosan, 10 Garth April, 9 Nic Groom, 8 Nizaam Carr, 7 Oupa Mohoje (captain), 6 Sikhumbuzo Notshe, 5 Stephan Lewies, 4 JD Schickerling, 3 Vincent Koch, 2 Scarra Ntubeni, 1 Thomas du Toit
Substitutes: 16 Malcolm Marx, 17 Lizo Gqoboka, 18 Coenie Oosthuizen, 19 RG Snyman, 20 Jean-Luc du Preez, 21 Piet van Zyl, 22 Francois Brummer, 23 Lukhanyo Am
England Saxons: 15 Mike Haley, 14 Alex Lewington, 13 Nick Tompkins, 12 Ollie Devoto, 11 Semesa Rokoduguni, 10 Danny Cipriani, 9 Dan Robson, 8 Sam Jones, 7 Matt Kvesic, 6 Don Armand, 5 Charlie Ewels, 4 Dave Attwood (c), 3 Kieran Brookes, 2 Tommy Taylor, 1 Alec Hepburn
Substitutes: 16 George McGuigan, 17 Ross Harrison, 18 Jake Cooper-Woolley, 19 Mitch Lees, 20 Dave Ewers, 21 Micky Young, 22 Sam James, 23 Christian Wade
The only thing better than rugby is more rugby and thanks to this additional tour, we can get started on that before Saturday even comes. Its partially for that reason I've been excited for this tour ever since it was rumoured, but also because I believe this is potentially a really good thing for English rugby. The usefulness of A tours is much debated but the reality is no one knows, because nothing like this has been seen in a long time. The Churchill Cup was fun, but as testing as two games against a genuinely strong South African team it isn't.
Everyone knows what to expect from South African rugby: Brute Power. If they can't run over you, they'll try again. Their centres think they're flankers, their flankers think they're props, and their props are only hypothetically related to the rest of humanity. The most scary thing on a Bok team is a short guy, because you know he's only there because they think he'll win single handed. Okay, that was a little hyperbolic, but not by much. That is the South African ideal.
Its true of starting loosehead Thomas Du Toit - a much vaunted 21 year old who just happens to be 130kg. From there, things aren't quite as usual in this starting South Africa line-up. Vincent Koch is a fairly ordinary type while hooker Scarra Ntubeni is probably best compared to Tom Youngs, only with worse throwing. Schikerling and Lewies are both beanpoles, so maybe they'll dig Ntubeni out of a hole, or maybe the'll not be able to and not provide enough bulk to the scrum either. The back row is quick, talented, and not that big either. Mohoje has looked decent for the Boks and will be doing most of the heavy duty carrying, with Carr being more of an openside as far as I was ever aware. There's a lot of excitement about today's openside Notshe, who's viewed as a definite future Bok, and there's been plenty of talk about his pace from South African fans.
Excitement is not a word associated with scrum-half Nic Groom. I honestly didn't find a single glowing word about him anywhere. Garth April is relatively inexperienced for his age, having taken the long route to where he is, but is meant to be a big talent in the making. He's got a lot of quality to work with him outside him. None of them are super big but there is plenty of pace with Skosan and Zas (and presumably Ismaiel, but no one's talking about him). Mnisi is meant to be good going forwards but not so hot when targeted himself, which will put pressure on Venter to be the defensive marshal.
The bench features a lot of the players that South African fans have been talking up. Malcolm Marx is referred to as Bismarck Du Plessis mk 2, back row Du Preez picked up a big reputation in the last JWC and Snyman is another protoypical 6'9" 18 stone plus lock. There's no doubt there's some real firepower waiting to be unleashed (although Oosthuizen doesn't have the strongest scrummaging reputation) but the question is will there be a match by the time it comes onto the pitch?
The answer is probably. This isn't the strongest Saxons team most people thought could have been picked either although that's not the case with the front row. Former Wasps academy man Alec Hepburn has been building a decent reputation with Exeter this season while the naturally massive Kieran Brookes will be looking to re-ignite the career that's already seen him pick up 16 England caps by the age of 25. The real man of interest though is Tommy Taylor, the Sale hooker who'll move to Wasps this summer. A former openside, he's shown a big engine and work rate this season in addition to an unusually solid set-piece game for a late convert.
Captain Dave Attwood needs no introduction but his partner Charlie Ewels, last year's U20 captain, will be less familiar. He's a rangy athletic type who was first introduced to senior rugby by having to fill in at 8 for Bath. Against Toulouse. He managed that with aplomb and while the state of England's second row depth is very much a discouraging one for any young lock, he does have the potential to become part of the conversation.
Moving back, Don Armand has been reliably abrasive and useful for Exeter all season in the absence of Ewers, while Sam Jones of Wasps wears the 8 shirt. Jones is perhaps the prototypical English back row; skilled and big enough to have a go at every back row position and make big contributions, but not skilled and big enough to be a specialist. Neither seems likely to move further in the England set-up, but you never know. The question of Matt Kvesic and the England set-up, on the other hand, has been done to death. The common suspicion is that he's held to be too light weight; hopefully he can shift that this tour. He may not carry like Clifford and Harrison, but one can't shake the possibility he's still a better rugby player than either of those in Australia and should be there.
Dan Robson is another player widely considered to be unlucky in Australia, given there's only two scrum-halves out there and neither has ever looked the complete deal. Whether Robson would is a very open question but if he continues how he played this season - sharp and accurate - the chance should come. With him is the likewise unlucky Danny Cipriani and Wasps fans will probably be salivating at getting a first look at their half-back pairing for next season. Everyone knows what Cipriani can do and the last two years have seen far more consistency, toughness and not being a prick from him. What Jones wants from him (other than a higher goal kicking percentage) is unknown, but this is a prime opportunity to start doing it.
The presence of Devoto is no surprise - clearly his Billy Twelvetrees mk 2 act has a fan in Jones. More surprising is Nick Tompkins, the highly rated young Saracens centre. He's a tidy useful player, but its difficult to see any potentially world class elements to his game and probably the fourth of the four centres in the squad. On the wings are Semesa Rokoduguni - to rehash myself, unlucky to be the one man losing out to a less more powerful athlete than himself - and Alex Lewington, whose better than 1 in 3 try scoring rate for the struggling London Irish will surely earn him a move straight back to the Premiership. There can be no complaints about the finishing that provides, even allowing for the obvious point of contention which will be addressed later. Sale's Mike Haley completes the team. The little I've seen of him suggests a very complete full-back and in a world where the declining Mike Brown duels for a spot with a probably never-will-be Alex Goode, Haley is possibly the man with the best opportunity in the squad to advance very quickly.
The bench features a lot of uncompromising physicality. Falcons hooker McGuigan has been signed by Tigers in no small part on the back of his ability to win collisions. Ross Harrison is a big promising loosehead; Jake Cooper-Woolley is an even bigger promise fulfilling tighthead. Mitch Lees is a squat block of an uncompromising lock and nobody needs me to tell them that Dave Ewers is a very big human being who trades on being very, very strong.
The backs part of the bench features Micky Young as scrum-half cover; not everyone's choice, or anyone's apart from the coaches really. Covering the centres - with Devoto likely to cover fly-half - is Sam James, who's enjoyed a breakout season for Sale in which he looked better at playing like Devoto than Devoto did. A natural 13 these days, James is a lanky powerful ex-youth fly-half in the mould that seems very popular these days in English rugby (tune in to the U20s for the Harry Mallinder show) and could have made an interestingly unpredictable pairing with Devoto.
And then there's Christian Wade.
To call Wade a favourite son of English rugby fans verges on understatement. Who doesn't love the closest thing to a Shane Williams clone you'll ever see? Well, maybe the answer is Eddie Jones. Maybe the oft-cited doubts about his defence are true as far as the England management is concerned. Then again, they could have easily waved him off to Sevens. And maybe he gets the next game. This is a situation where judgement would be wiser after the facts are presented but people want to see Wade tried and it is frustrating that he is not. Here's hoping he gets a big chance this game.
Reading this back, it feels like England have a decent chance of getting an edge in the set-piece and breakdown battles, thanks largely to Attwood's bulk, Kvesic's guile, and the possibility of dodgy hooking. If that's happens, victory usually follows, and there's enough attacking quality in the backs to make it big. If nothing bad happens to South Africa up front however, then it sounds like they've got plenty of pace and loose ball runners if they can get it out there. That would seem to indicate an England victory most times, albeit without factoring in home advantage, but there can be no certainty to such a prediction. That is the glory of A team rugby.
Right - lets get this weekend underway.
SA 'A': 15 Leolin Zas, 14 Travis Ismaiel, 13 Francois Venter, 12 Howard Mnisi, 11 Courtnall Skosan, 10 Garth April, 9 Nic Groom, 8 Nizaam Carr, 7 Oupa Mohoje (captain), 6 Sikhumbuzo Notshe, 5 Stephan Lewies, 4 JD Schickerling, 3 Vincent Koch, 2 Scarra Ntubeni, 1 Thomas du Toit
Substitutes: 16 Malcolm Marx, 17 Lizo Gqoboka, 18 Coenie Oosthuizen, 19 RG Snyman, 20 Jean-Luc du Preez, 21 Piet van Zyl, 22 Francois Brummer, 23 Lukhanyo Am
England Saxons: 15 Mike Haley, 14 Alex Lewington, 13 Nick Tompkins, 12 Ollie Devoto, 11 Semesa Rokoduguni, 10 Danny Cipriani, 9 Dan Robson, 8 Sam Jones, 7 Matt Kvesic, 6 Don Armand, 5 Charlie Ewels, 4 Dave Attwood (c), 3 Kieran Brookes, 2 Tommy Taylor, 1 Alec Hepburn
Substitutes: 16 George McGuigan, 17 Ross Harrison, 18 Jake Cooper-Woolley, 19 Mitch Lees, 20 Dave Ewers, 21 Micky Young, 22 Sam James, 23 Christian Wade
The only thing better than rugby is more rugby and thanks to this additional tour, we can get started on that before Saturday even comes. Its partially for that reason I've been excited for this tour ever since it was rumoured, but also because I believe this is potentially a really good thing for English rugby. The usefulness of A tours is much debated but the reality is no one knows, because nothing like this has been seen in a long time. The Churchill Cup was fun, but as testing as two games against a genuinely strong South African team it isn't.
Everyone knows what to expect from South African rugby: Brute Power. If they can't run over you, they'll try again. Their centres think they're flankers, their flankers think they're props, and their props are only hypothetically related to the rest of humanity. The most scary thing on a Bok team is a short guy, because you know he's only there because they think he'll win single handed. Okay, that was a little hyperbolic, but not by much. That is the South African ideal.
Its true of starting loosehead Thomas Du Toit - a much vaunted 21 year old who just happens to be 130kg. From there, things aren't quite as usual in this starting South Africa line-up. Vincent Koch is a fairly ordinary type while hooker Scarra Ntubeni is probably best compared to Tom Youngs, only with worse throwing. Schikerling and Lewies are both beanpoles, so maybe they'll dig Ntubeni out of a hole, or maybe the'll not be able to and not provide enough bulk to the scrum either. The back row is quick, talented, and not that big either. Mohoje has looked decent for the Boks and will be doing most of the heavy duty carrying, with Carr being more of an openside as far as I was ever aware. There's a lot of excitement about today's openside Notshe, who's viewed as a definite future Bok, and there's been plenty of talk about his pace from South African fans.
Excitement is not a word associated with scrum-half Nic Groom. I honestly didn't find a single glowing word about him anywhere. Garth April is relatively inexperienced for his age, having taken the long route to where he is, but is meant to be a big talent in the making. He's got a lot of quality to work with him outside him. None of them are super big but there is plenty of pace with Skosan and Zas (and presumably Ismaiel, but no one's talking about him). Mnisi is meant to be good going forwards but not so hot when targeted himself, which will put pressure on Venter to be the defensive marshal.
The bench features a lot of the players that South African fans have been talking up. Malcolm Marx is referred to as Bismarck Du Plessis mk 2, back row Du Preez picked up a big reputation in the last JWC and Snyman is another protoypical 6'9" 18 stone plus lock. There's no doubt there's some real firepower waiting to be unleashed (although Oosthuizen doesn't have the strongest scrummaging reputation) but the question is will there be a match by the time it comes onto the pitch?
The answer is probably. This isn't the strongest Saxons team most people thought could have been picked either although that's not the case with the front row. Former Wasps academy man Alec Hepburn has been building a decent reputation with Exeter this season while the naturally massive Kieran Brookes will be looking to re-ignite the career that's already seen him pick up 16 England caps by the age of 25. The real man of interest though is Tommy Taylor, the Sale hooker who'll move to Wasps this summer. A former openside, he's shown a big engine and work rate this season in addition to an unusually solid set-piece game for a late convert.
Captain Dave Attwood needs no introduction but his partner Charlie Ewels, last year's U20 captain, will be less familiar. He's a rangy athletic type who was first introduced to senior rugby by having to fill in at 8 for Bath. Against Toulouse. He managed that with aplomb and while the state of England's second row depth is very much a discouraging one for any young lock, he does have the potential to become part of the conversation.
Moving back, Don Armand has been reliably abrasive and useful for Exeter all season in the absence of Ewers, while Sam Jones of Wasps wears the 8 shirt. Jones is perhaps the prototypical English back row; skilled and big enough to have a go at every back row position and make big contributions, but not skilled and big enough to be a specialist. Neither seems likely to move further in the England set-up, but you never know. The question of Matt Kvesic and the England set-up, on the other hand, has been done to death. The common suspicion is that he's held to be too light weight; hopefully he can shift that this tour. He may not carry like Clifford and Harrison, but one can't shake the possibility he's still a better rugby player than either of those in Australia and should be there.
Dan Robson is another player widely considered to be unlucky in Australia, given there's only two scrum-halves out there and neither has ever looked the complete deal. Whether Robson would is a very open question but if he continues how he played this season - sharp and accurate - the chance should come. With him is the likewise unlucky Danny Cipriani and Wasps fans will probably be salivating at getting a first look at their half-back pairing for next season. Everyone knows what Cipriani can do and the last two years have seen far more consistency, toughness and not being a prick from him. What Jones wants from him (other than a higher goal kicking percentage) is unknown, but this is a prime opportunity to start doing it.
The presence of Devoto is no surprise - clearly his Billy Twelvetrees mk 2 act has a fan in Jones. More surprising is Nick Tompkins, the highly rated young Saracens centre. He's a tidy useful player, but its difficult to see any potentially world class elements to his game and probably the fourth of the four centres in the squad. On the wings are Semesa Rokoduguni - to rehash myself, unlucky to be the one man losing out to a less more powerful athlete than himself - and Alex Lewington, whose better than 1 in 3 try scoring rate for the struggling London Irish will surely earn him a move straight back to the Premiership. There can be no complaints about the finishing that provides, even allowing for the obvious point of contention which will be addressed later. Sale's Mike Haley completes the team. The little I've seen of him suggests a very complete full-back and in a world where the declining Mike Brown duels for a spot with a probably never-will-be Alex Goode, Haley is possibly the man with the best opportunity in the squad to advance very quickly.
The bench features a lot of uncompromising physicality. Falcons hooker McGuigan has been signed by Tigers in no small part on the back of his ability to win collisions. Ross Harrison is a big promising loosehead; Jake Cooper-Woolley is an even bigger promise fulfilling tighthead. Mitch Lees is a squat block of an uncompromising lock and nobody needs me to tell them that Dave Ewers is a very big human being who trades on being very, very strong.
The backs part of the bench features Micky Young as scrum-half cover; not everyone's choice, or anyone's apart from the coaches really. Covering the centres - with Devoto likely to cover fly-half - is Sam James, who's enjoyed a breakout season for Sale in which he looked better at playing like Devoto than Devoto did. A natural 13 these days, James is a lanky powerful ex-youth fly-half in the mould that seems very popular these days in English rugby (tune in to the U20s for the Harry Mallinder show) and could have made an interestingly unpredictable pairing with Devoto.
And then there's Christian Wade.
To call Wade a favourite son of English rugby fans verges on understatement. Who doesn't love the closest thing to a Shane Williams clone you'll ever see? Well, maybe the answer is Eddie Jones. Maybe the oft-cited doubts about his defence are true as far as the England management is concerned. Then again, they could have easily waved him off to Sevens. And maybe he gets the next game. This is a situation where judgement would be wiser after the facts are presented but people want to see Wade tried and it is frustrating that he is not. Here's hoping he gets a big chance this game.
Reading this back, it feels like England have a decent chance of getting an edge in the set-piece and breakdown battles, thanks largely to Attwood's bulk, Kvesic's guile, and the possibility of dodgy hooking. If that's happens, victory usually follows, and there's enough attacking quality in the backs to make it big. If nothing bad happens to South Africa up front however, then it sounds like they've got plenty of pace and loose ball runners if they can get it out there. That would seem to indicate an England victory most times, albeit without factoring in home advantage, but there can be no certainty to such a prediction. That is the glory of A team rugby.
Right - lets get this weekend underway.
Thursday 9 June 2016
Australia vs England 1st test preview
TEAMS
Australia: 15 Israel Folau, 14 Dane Haylett-Petty, 13 Tevita Kuridrani, 12 Samu Kerevi, 11 Rob Horne, 10 Bernard Foley, 9 Nick Phipps, 8 David Pocock, 7 Michael Hooper, 6 Scott Fardy, 5 Rob Simmons, 4 Rory Arnold, 3 Greg Holmes, 2 Stephen Moore (captain), 1 Scott Sio
Substitutes:16 Tatafu Polota-Nau, 17 James Slipper, 18 Sekope Kepu, 19 James Horwill, 20 Dean Mumm, 21 Sean McMahon, 22 Nick Frisby, 23 Christian Leali'ifano.
England: 15 Mike Brown, 14 Anthony Watson, 13 Jonathan Joseph, 12 Luther Burrell, 11 Marland Yarde, 10 Owen Farrell, 9 Ben Youngs, 8 Billy Vunipola, 7 James Haskell, 6 Chris Robshaw, 5 George Kruis, 4 Maro Itoje, 3 Dan Cole, 2 Dylan Hartley (captain), 1 Mako Vunipola
Substitutes: 16 Luke Cowan-Dickie, 17 Matt Mullan, 18 Paul Hill, 19 Joe Launchbury, 20 Courtney Lawes, 21 Danny Care, 22 George Ford, 23 Jack Nowell
Well, Eddie Jones has been promising to physically test the Australian team, and it looks like he'll be as good as his word. In comes Luther Burrell to provide the hard running option in the centres. In comes Marland Yarde, England's most powerful wing touring, in place of Jack Nowell. The rumoured selection of Itoje at blindside won't happen at the start of the match but with both Launchbury and Lawes on the bench, it is a strong probability to have occurred by the end. And near forgotten, but Mako Vunipola's elevation to a starting berth in Marler's absence also provides another carrier.
The problem with this tactic becomes obvious though when you take a look at the Australian team. Folau and both centres are over 16 stone, with young Samu Kerevi weighing in at 17. None of the other backs are small for their position. The pack, well, it is a standard sized pack until you get to the back row. Pocock and Hooper are a little on the small side, maybe, depending on which stats you believe, but they are unquestionably strong men by anyone's standards. If you let Pocock get set over a ball, good luck getting it off. If you let Hooper get a head of steam carrying, good luck denying him the gain line.
Does this look like a team afraid of a physical battle? Their combined team weight might actually be higher than the English (for whatever that's worth) and they spend their entire rugby careers preparing for the Boks' bludgeoning approach to rugby and the never-ending stream of power runners coming out of New Zealand.
To succeed at physically grinding the Australians down and notching up a win here would be highly impressive. Not only is this Australian team very physical looking, but its hard to find a weakness to get at. The scrum? Possible, but recent results show not many get an advantage there against the Wallabies. If anything, given Mako Vunipola's career as a starting international prop, it might be England who end up in trouble. The line out? Australia have turned up with three primary line out jumpers to England's two and given that Rory Arnold is 6' 10", Stephen Moore will have to have a pretty bad day for that to go wrong. The break down? Don't be ridiculous.
It's possible that Kerevi, being 22 year olds and new to this level, might make a few bad defensive reads. That would be a huge advantage. There also might be some joy in kicking into space and letting Watson, Yarde and Joseph hunt it down although Folau is perfectly capable of turning a match from just one loose kick and chase. Speaking of Joseph, Kuridrani is a fine player but mightn't be too happy if put in a one on one with Joseph, so there's that too. But with Farrell the only distributor in the back line, that may not occur.
Presented in this light, maybe the head on physical battle is the safest route. Run head first into Pocock and Hooper with plenty of support so they can't steal the ball. Use the Vunipolas to suck in an extra player so that when Youngs darts at the guards and looks for his forwards, the forwards can run into gaps and force the gain line. Pick and go every time there's not a guard. I would have preferred to see Ford kept in as an additional distributor and territorial kicker to keep the Australian defensive line honest rather than bunched up waiting for the traffic and, while recognising Itoje's future is best served at lock, I'd have pushed him into blindside for this series to get more ball carriers on the pitch. But that doesn't mean this team can't make what they have work.
The Grand Slam was a bit easy. Ireland and Wales were at low ebb and away from home. The French are rebuilding. And I can't even take Scotland and Italy seriously at this moment in time. The arguments against Lancaster were based on awareness that the Six Nations was there for the taking and its only got easier.
There is nothing easy or there for the taking aboutAustralia. Now we get to measure Eddie Jones' team against the best. So let us make our judgements after the fact, rather than before, and enjoy the ride.
But if you were to force me to make a prediction? I don't see this England team beating Australia. It will be nice to be wrong.
Australia: 15 Israel Folau, 14 Dane Haylett-Petty, 13 Tevita Kuridrani, 12 Samu Kerevi, 11 Rob Horne, 10 Bernard Foley, 9 Nick Phipps, 8 David Pocock, 7 Michael Hooper, 6 Scott Fardy, 5 Rob Simmons, 4 Rory Arnold, 3 Greg Holmes, 2 Stephen Moore (captain), 1 Scott Sio
Substitutes:16 Tatafu Polota-Nau, 17 James Slipper, 18 Sekope Kepu, 19 James Horwill, 20 Dean Mumm, 21 Sean McMahon, 22 Nick Frisby, 23 Christian Leali'ifano.
England: 15 Mike Brown, 14 Anthony Watson, 13 Jonathan Joseph, 12 Luther Burrell, 11 Marland Yarde, 10 Owen Farrell, 9 Ben Youngs, 8 Billy Vunipola, 7 James Haskell, 6 Chris Robshaw, 5 George Kruis, 4 Maro Itoje, 3 Dan Cole, 2 Dylan Hartley (captain), 1 Mako Vunipola
Substitutes: 16 Luke Cowan-Dickie, 17 Matt Mullan, 18 Paul Hill, 19 Joe Launchbury, 20 Courtney Lawes, 21 Danny Care, 22 George Ford, 23 Jack Nowell
Well, Eddie Jones has been promising to physically test the Australian team, and it looks like he'll be as good as his word. In comes Luther Burrell to provide the hard running option in the centres. In comes Marland Yarde, England's most powerful wing touring, in place of Jack Nowell. The rumoured selection of Itoje at blindside won't happen at the start of the match but with both Launchbury and Lawes on the bench, it is a strong probability to have occurred by the end. And near forgotten, but Mako Vunipola's elevation to a starting berth in Marler's absence also provides another carrier.
The problem with this tactic becomes obvious though when you take a look at the Australian team. Folau and both centres are over 16 stone, with young Samu Kerevi weighing in at 17. None of the other backs are small for their position. The pack, well, it is a standard sized pack until you get to the back row. Pocock and Hooper are a little on the small side, maybe, depending on which stats you believe, but they are unquestionably strong men by anyone's standards. If you let Pocock get set over a ball, good luck getting it off. If you let Hooper get a head of steam carrying, good luck denying him the gain line.
Does this look like a team afraid of a physical battle? Their combined team weight might actually be higher than the English (for whatever that's worth) and they spend their entire rugby careers preparing for the Boks' bludgeoning approach to rugby and the never-ending stream of power runners coming out of New Zealand.
To succeed at physically grinding the Australians down and notching up a win here would be highly impressive. Not only is this Australian team very physical looking, but its hard to find a weakness to get at. The scrum? Possible, but recent results show not many get an advantage there against the Wallabies. If anything, given Mako Vunipola's career as a starting international prop, it might be England who end up in trouble. The line out? Australia have turned up with three primary line out jumpers to England's two and given that Rory Arnold is 6' 10", Stephen Moore will have to have a pretty bad day for that to go wrong. The break down? Don't be ridiculous.
It's possible that Kerevi, being 22 year olds and new to this level, might make a few bad defensive reads. That would be a huge advantage. There also might be some joy in kicking into space and letting Watson, Yarde and Joseph hunt it down although Folau is perfectly capable of turning a match from just one loose kick and chase. Speaking of Joseph, Kuridrani is a fine player but mightn't be too happy if put in a one on one with Joseph, so there's that too. But with Farrell the only distributor in the back line, that may not occur.
Presented in this light, maybe the head on physical battle is the safest route. Run head first into Pocock and Hooper with plenty of support so they can't steal the ball. Use the Vunipolas to suck in an extra player so that when Youngs darts at the guards and looks for his forwards, the forwards can run into gaps and force the gain line. Pick and go every time there's not a guard. I would have preferred to see Ford kept in as an additional distributor and territorial kicker to keep the Australian defensive line honest rather than bunched up waiting for the traffic and, while recognising Itoje's future is best served at lock, I'd have pushed him into blindside for this series to get more ball carriers on the pitch. But that doesn't mean this team can't make what they have work.
The Grand Slam was a bit easy. Ireland and Wales were at low ebb and away from home. The French are rebuilding. And I can't even take Scotland and Italy seriously at this moment in time. The arguments against Lancaster were based on awareness that the Six Nations was there for the taking and its only got easier.
There is nothing easy or there for the taking aboutAustralia. Now we get to measure Eddie Jones' team against the best. So let us make our judgements after the fact, rather than before, and enjoy the ride.
But if you were to force me to make a prediction? I don't see this England team beating Australia. It will be nice to be wrong.
Sunday 29 May 2016
9 Pre England vs Wales thoughts
1. Desperation is the Eddie Jones buzzword of the moment. He wants players who are desperate to play for England. He wants players who are desperate to give everything for England. He likes Teimana Harrison, Kyle Sinckler and Ellis Genge, the unlikely trio of bolters, because they have this quality. He likes Chris Robshaw and James Haskell, the slightly frustrating flanker pairing, because they have this. He's unsure about Jack Clifford, because he's not sure he's got the same desire. As for Chris Ashton, well, here's what Jones had to say about that:
"Players need to decide how desperate they are to play for England."
The exact rights and wrongs of any particular player's passion is besides the point here. The point is that Jones is setting out very clear, very strong demands and either players will meet them or they'll be dumped. This is fantastic news to any right thinking England fan. Standards need to go up and this will cause them to do so. And if some players decide its not for them and leave, who cares? The beauty of having the biggest player pool in the world is no shortage of international prospects and, given the past four years, its incontrovertible that there's no England players who belong in a World XV and as such, no one is irreplaceable.
2. The other Eddie Jones buzzword of the moment is coachability, a virtue he brought up particularly in regard to Marland Yarde. The Yarde selection has taken a bit of flak with Ashton, Wade, and Rokoduguni all seen as superior options by various fans. Very few seem to think Yarde was the best choice there. Yet there is little reason to think of Yarde as a bad choice. His last real shot in an England shirt was the tour to New Zealand, where he picked up two tries and showed humongous attacking potential. Bar Rokoduguni, no other English winger in contention has the same blend of pace and power.
The Wales match will be his first start since then and no one knows when the next will come. He needs to seize this moment and show he has been listening hard to the gospel of Uncle Eddie - and also that of Paul Gustard, for Yarde's defence will definitely come under scrutiny. Play poorly, and he'll likely hold tackle bags all summer before sweating on whether he keeps his EPS place. A good match could push his claims immensely though, particularly if Jones feels like switching Watson to his club position of full-back.
3. Luther Burrell shouldn't really have been in the Six Nations squad, according to our favourite convict gnome. Wasn't good enough and 8kg overweight. Jones reckons he's improved and he must have done to be ahead of Ollie Devoto, one of the youngsters that edged him out back then. This is a thought that leaves many skeptical but then, so does the thought of Ollie Devoto, England centre. Both have the raw ingredients to be valuable players, particularly as Eddie looks to ramp up England's physicality, but they are notably flawed articles.
As such, the thought that one of these men will probably replace Tuilagi in the touring squad is a sobering one. Hopefully one of them will seize the moment tomorrow and build a more convincing case than "Well, it has to be someone". Devoto would be ideal, given his wider skill set and younger age, but Burrell seems more likely. Either way, being in Australia means nothing. Next season, Burrell will find himself increasingly duelling with Mallinder jnr for a place, while Devoto has moved to the great centre logjam in Exeter. They'll need to be at their peak just to stay in contention.
4. Competition for places is developing into a theme and for good reason; English rugby's depth is coming along quite nicely. Every player who misses a game, for whatever reason, must be uncomfortably aware that he might not be getting his place back. Chris Robshaw misses the game to attend a wedding; he's made his case well enough to make the next game anyway, but big games for the young back rowers and the time for transition will move forwards. At loosehead, Alex Corbisiero is taking a season out and Joe Marler is taking the tour out, largely as a result of the fierce attrition of the modern game. It was the body in Corbs' case; in Marler's, the mind. Its unknown seemingly unlikely whether Corbs will ever truly make it back. Marler is hopefully more certain. But in any case, opportunity finally beckons for Matt Mullan, a highly talented player who knows plenty about attrition. Who knows how well he takes it?
Then there's Ashton. His ban and the subsequent favouring of Yarde is a textbook example of losing a place. Still, he was probably 4th choice England wing going into this summer - missing out on the senior tour, yes, but who knows where the injury fairy will strike next? Then he decided not to go on the Saxons tour, willingly subjecting himself to another window of letting other people push him down the pecking order. Whether Jones will hold a grudge - and his comments indicate a fair probability, in which case its bye bye Christopher - is not yet known but even if he doesn't, it's still a classic example of ordering an artillery strike on your own foot.
Now, it is known that Ashton's wife is expecting, supposedly at the end of the month. It is completely understandable and admirable for a man to put his family ahead of his career. But it is very strange that a professional rugby player should decide that protecting being third choice for his country is worth putting his career first for, and protecting being fourth choice isn't. Some will tell you the Saxons tour is pointless, but when the margins on getting into the England squad are that thin, that doesn't seem to fit the situation ahead of us. Time will tell which absentees lose out and which don't (there's going to be an awful lot of them in this match) but Ashton's name looks pencilled in on the losers' list.
5. Matt Mullan will have to go some to put Marler's name on the losers' list too and while he's not short of talent, its difficult to see what his edge on Marler would be. This is not a problem Ellis Genge has. His scrummaging and experience look nowhere near the level to put himself in serious contention for ousting Marler yet, but when the day comes, Genge may well be the full package that Marler threatened to be but has failed to be; big scrummaging, big work rate, big impact in the loose. Marler only really fills out the first two and Vunipola the latter two. They shouldn't be given up yet but hope for a youngster to break through and fill all three feels more realistic.
In any case, Genge is part of a new wave of front row talent that could transform England. It's not like we're currently doing badly in this area, but players like Genge, Sinckler, Paul Hill and Luke Cowan-Dickie offer athleticism and skill of the type more usually seen in Kiwi front-rowers. Having even one of these players break the starting team would make us a significantly better ball carrying team. A front row entirely made up of these type of players would free up our back row to do so much more breakdown and linking work. This future may never even come but its beginning to feel more and more of a possibility.
6. Speaking of the benefits of ridiculously mobile and skilful forwards, Joe Launchbury and Courtney Lawes are probably England's most talented and important pack members today. Officially they're only covering for Kruis and Itoje, but if they had stayed fitter over the last 18 months, they might still be our first choice locks. There's absolutely no reason they couldn't be again (other than Krutoje) providing their fitness can hold and this provides the level of competition Jones wants. I feel sorry for guys like Graham Kitchener, a probably international standard lock who'll never get a chance due to an absurdly strong generation.
Of course, to usurp the Sarries pair, they need to play Eddieball. Lawes has never been short of desire to physically dominate opponents (hence his injury prone nature) but has been inconsistent with getting his body shape right for making the most of his power when carrying. Launchbury, who does come as a very quiet character, has never had difficulty carrying (although could do more) but doesn't put many big hits in defensively. Win more collisions, and they'll be putting pressure on Krutoje. Win more collisions, and today's match will at the least be close.
7. The back row will be the weakest part of England's starting effort and it is perhaps fortunate that Wales have neither Warburton or Tipuric; Dan Lydiate is as much an openside as, well, Haskell. Ironically the most natural openside of the lot will be Teimana Harrison (aka possibly the best thing Dylan Hartley's done for English rugby) making his debut. Its not often you say that of the English blindside. Of course, today, he's here to be a strong ball carrier with a big engine and a useful breakdown presence; a job that he can do well. Likewise, Clifford should relish his opportunity to spend an entire match carrying in an England shirt.
The problem is they're up against Lydiate, who's not an openside but is capable of making life very difficult for his opponent, and Faletau, who's probably more of an openside when not being an outstanding 8 and making his opponent look very stupid. I'm sure James Haskell has a tale to tell his young padawans there. Rugby is never truly about 1 on 1 battles but eventually those moments come. The big question is how well the youngsters will do and whether they can put pressure on Jones' closed shop as a result.
8. There's a stat going around that Matt Kvesic stole more ball than anyone in the AP this season. More than George Smith, more than Louw, certainly more than all his EPS rivals. That he is the best English player at what he does is pretty much incontestable except perhaps by a Will Fraser that can stay fit for more than 3 minutes, which sadly falls under the heading of "Yeah right". Yet he remains in the same place on the periphery of England he's occupied ever since his performances on tour in Argentina weren't rewarded. Everyone with their eyes switched on can work out why; power. And there's not a lot you can do about your genetics.
The question is why is he still in this place when his strengths and weaknesses are so obvious. The first possibility is inertia and that we are merely going through the motions before he joins the great heap of 'never-quite-made-it' English opensides in the sky. The second is that Jones reckons there's something that if he only can instil qualities of ferocity and desperation. After all, Kvesic is not much smaller than Harrison. Finally, the third possibility is that Jones is considering the possibility of a day when he can get enough power from his tight five that he starts to look at his back row in a different light. Time will tell - all Kvesic can do for now is play his heart out.
9. A lot has been said about the money-grabbing nature of this contest. A lot. Well, its true. This match is being played because the RFU needs muchos dineros to pay off PRL are congesting their season to play the World Cup in. There should be a yearly ritual cursing of the men who decided the RFU wouldn't be involved in funding professional rugby but this is where we are and the match is essential to keep everyone happy.
However, once we put that aside and consider what we have on our hands, there is no reason to be unhappy at all at the outset. Yes, this is not a full strength England team, although many of the replacements have been part of such outfits in the past. Its not a full strength Wales team either. It is impossible to imagine either going at less than a 100pc though and there are still Lions on both sides; we will not be short of quality. It is not often we get a chance to see a number of test match hopefuls in strong sides going at full intensity. If that is what unfolds then regardless of the reason why the match was arranged, it will be a very enjoyable one to watch. Here's hoping.
Sunday 22 May 2016
England squads for Wales and Australia Tours
England senior 32-man squad for Australia tour:
Forwards
Dan Cole (Leicester Tigers), Luke Cowan-Dickie (Exeter Chiefs), Jack Clifford (Harlequins), Ellis Genge (Leicester Tigers), Jamie George (Saracens), Teimana Harrison (Northampton Saints), Dylan Hartley (Northampton Saints), James Haskell (Wasps), Paul Hill (Northampton Saints), Maro Itoje (Saracens), George Kruis (Saracens), Joe Launchbury (Wasps), Courtney Lawes (Northampton Saints), Matt Mullan (Wasps), Chris Robshaw (Harlequins), Kyle Sinckler (Harlequins), Billy Vunipola (Saracens), Mako Vunipola (Saracens)
Backs
Mike Brown (Harlequins), Danny Care (Harlequins), Elliot Daly (Wasps), Owen Farrell (Saracens), George Ford (Bath Rugby), Alex Goode (Saracens), Jonathan Joseph (Bath Rugby), Jack Nowell (Exeter Chiefs), Henry Slade (Exeter Chiefs), Ben Te’o (Worcester Warriors), Manu Tuilagi (Leicester Tigers), Anthony Watson (Bath Rugby), Marland Yarde (Harlequins), Ben Youngs (Leicester Tigers)
England senior 26-man squad for Old Mutual Wealth Cup against Wales
Forwards
Dave Attwood (Bath Rugby), Dan Cole (Leicester Tigers), Jack Clifford (Harlequins), Ellis Genge (Leicester Tigers), Dylan Hartley (Northampton Saints), Teimana Harrison (Northampton Saints), James Haskell (Wasps), Paul Hill (Northampton Saints), Matt Kvesic (Gloucester Rugby), Joe Launchbury (Wasps), Courtney Lawes (Northampton Saints), Matt Mullan (Wasps), Chris Robshaw (Harlequins), Kyle Sinckler (Harlequins), Tommy Taylor (Wasps)
Backs
Mike Brown (Harlequins), Luther Burrell (Northampton Saints), Danny Care (Harlequins), Elliot Daly (Wasps), Ollie Devoto (Exeter Chiefs), George Ford (Bath Rugby), Jonathan Joseph (Bath Rugby), Manu Tuilagi (Leciester Tigers), Anthony Watson (Bath Rugby), Marland Yarde (Harlequins), Ben Youngs (Leicester Tigers)
Forwards
Dan Cole (Leicester Tigers), Luke Cowan-Dickie (Exeter Chiefs), Jack Clifford (Harlequins), Ellis Genge (Leicester Tigers), Jamie George (Saracens), Teimana Harrison (Northampton Saints), Dylan Hartley (Northampton Saints), James Haskell (Wasps), Paul Hill (Northampton Saints), Maro Itoje (Saracens), George Kruis (Saracens), Joe Launchbury (Wasps), Courtney Lawes (Northampton Saints), Matt Mullan (Wasps), Chris Robshaw (Harlequins), Kyle Sinckler (Harlequins), Billy Vunipola (Saracens), Mako Vunipola (Saracens)
Backs
Mike Brown (Harlequins), Danny Care (Harlequins), Elliot Daly (Wasps), Owen Farrell (Saracens), George Ford (Bath Rugby), Alex Goode (Saracens), Jonathan Joseph (Bath Rugby), Jack Nowell (Exeter Chiefs), Henry Slade (Exeter Chiefs), Ben Te’o (Worcester Warriors), Manu Tuilagi (Leicester Tigers), Anthony Watson (Bath Rugby), Marland Yarde (Harlequins), Ben Youngs (Leicester Tigers)
England senior 26-man squad for Old Mutual Wealth Cup against Wales
Forwards
Dave Attwood (Bath Rugby), Dan Cole (Leicester Tigers), Jack Clifford (Harlequins), Ellis Genge (Leicester Tigers), Dylan Hartley (Northampton Saints), Teimana Harrison (Northampton Saints), James Haskell (Wasps), Paul Hill (Northampton Saints), Matt Kvesic (Gloucester Rugby), Joe Launchbury (Wasps), Courtney Lawes (Northampton Saints), Matt Mullan (Wasps), Chris Robshaw (Harlequins), Kyle Sinckler (Harlequins), Tommy Taylor (Wasps)
Backs
Mike Brown (Harlequins), Luther Burrell (Northampton Saints), Danny Care (Harlequins), Elliot Daly (Wasps), Ollie Devoto (Exeter Chiefs), George Ford (Bath Rugby), Jonathan Joseph (Bath Rugby), Manu Tuilagi (Leciester Tigers), Anthony Watson (Bath Rugby), Marland Yarde (Harlequins), Ben Youngs (Leicester Tigers)
My initial thoughts are as follows
a) Why name a squad which contains two players who are rumoured to be too injured to travel, namely Tuilagi and Farrell? Tuilagi went off with a hamstring tear for crying out loud, he's almost definitely not going.
b) Eddie Jones' love affair with abrasiveness and physicality continues. In comes Ben Te'o before he's even landed, ready to offer back-up to the injury prone Tuilagi. In comes Ellis Genge and Kyle Sinckler, two young props with huge athleticism, physicality and possibly temper issues. Genge is allegedly being let go by Bristol because of off-the-pitch issues while Sinckler has had a few moments on the pitch (no red cards and only one week banned so far though). Teimana Harrison's elevation above Matt Kvesic is a tribute to his power in contact too. On the one hand, Jones' insistence that England should play rugby as hard as possible is to be applauded, but on the other, those who play on the line sooner or later find themselves crossing it. I still think England were very fortunate that Marler's excursions across the Rubicon went unnoticed at the time during the Six Nations; if they had, they could have cost us the Grand Slam. Jones' success may well come down to keeping England just the right side.
c) Bad news for England's aspiring half-backs as Jones sticks with the incumbents and elects not to take third choices. An injury to Youngs or Care could prove a real sticking point, as whoever Jones picked next, they'd be fresh to their methods. Then again, given the failure of either to ever be consistent in an England shirt, I'd be far from the only one to regard such an injury as having serious silver linings. Dan Robson has looked very good for Wasps since Simpson's injury. Danny Cipriani and Freddie Burns might both look askance at the continued backing of George Ford too - who is being lined up to play the whole game against Wales - and will be praying that Farrell really is too badly injured.
d) I've already mentioned Kvesic, but he might as well sod off to France. It seems unlikely he'll even play in the Wales game and with Harrison already ahead of him and Sam Underhill surely likely to follow, it can't be too long before he's out of the picture altogether. Jones has no brief for a dedicated ball thief. Also in the "Might as well go then" camp is Semesa Rokoduguni, possibly the one forgotten England international looking at less physical players ahead of him, rather than more physical players. Maybe he should have asked to go back to Sevens. Also unlucky is Kieran Brookes (not sure what he's done wrong) and Chris Ashton, who was wanted back in February but now isn't, despite not changing a whit. Thank god and well done to Marland Yarde for making that happen.
In general, there's not a lot to object to. Jones is continuing to push young players with the athleticism to shine at international level. I'm not expecting to see them in the test team, given Jones' desire to force players to go through fire to play for England, but he's backing potential. The real questions now are how they'll perform, how Jones will react to his first bad patch (should it come this summer) and who tours with the Saxons to South Africa.
Predicted team against Wales:
Brown, Watson, Joseph, Burrell, Yarde; Ford, Youngs;
Mullan, Hartley, Cole, Launchbury, Lawes, Robshaw, Haskell, Clifford
subs: Taylor, Genge, Hill, Attwood, Harrison, Care, Devoto, Daly
Tuesday 26 January 2016
Eddie Jones' first match day 23 - GB&U
Six Nations rugby is nearly upon us and as per the somewhat irritating restrictions of the EPS agreement, Jones has released all players that won't be involved in his first match day squad back to their clubs.
Those going home:
Josh Beaumont (Sale Sharks), Luke Cowan-Dickie (Exeter Chiefs), Maro Itoje (Saracens), Matt Kvesic (Gloucester Rugby), Matt Mullan (Wasps), Henry Thomas (Bath Rugby), Elliot Daly (Wasps), Sam Hill (Exeter Chiefs), Semesa Rokoduguni (Bath Rugby), Marland Yarde (Harlequins)
Which means the following have stayed:
Forwards: Dan Cole (Leicester Tigers), Jack Clifford (Harlequins), Jamie George (Saracens), Dylan Hartley (Northampton Saints), James Haskell (Wasps), Paul Hill (Northampton Saints), George Kruis (Saracens), Joe Launchbury (Wasps), Courtney Lawes (Northampton Saints), Joe Marler (Harlequins), Chris Robshaw (Harlequins), Billy Vunipola (Saracens), Mako Vunipola (Saracens)
Backs: Mike Brown (Harlequins), Danny Care (Harlequins), Ollie Devoto (Bath Rugby), Owen Farrell (Saracens), George Ford (Bath Rugby), Alex Goode (Saracens), Jonathan Joseph (Bath Rugby), Jack Nowell (Exeter Chiefs), Anthony Watson (Bath Rugby), Ben Youngs (Leicester Tigers).
With Dylan Hartley named as captain.
While true judgement absolutely has to wait for match day, there's enough going on to start looking at how things are going to shape up. So let's divvy this up.
The Good
Paul Hill - Hill is about to become the second youngest prop to play for England since the start of the professional era (behind David Flatman) and he's completely earned it with his performances for Northampton. I'll admit to expecting Henry Thomas, and Thomas can feel unlucky, but not aggrieved, because on form this is not a controversial call. While it remains to see how Hill goes (there's some nerves personally in sending a guy out with this little experience to play 6N rugby), he has huge potential that he is realising now and it's exciting to see him given a chance so early.
Everyone not mentioned below - That's a lazy way of doing things I'll admit, but the squad is basically good. It's basically Lancaster's squad, which is a teeny bit frustrating but that was a solid international team and a disaster would be very unexpected, while the possibility of defeat lies more in the resurgence Scotland have been threatening for some time. If it stays an idle threat, Eddie Jones will get his reign off to a victorious start and can breathe that little easier.
The Ugly
Robshaw & Haskell - I have nothing major against either player in isolation, although both have flaws that means I can't be too for them either, but put together and you get a few problems. How do we know that? Well, we saw it last 6N. Swapping their shirts isn't going to fix that. I'll stress that I'm only talking about a few problems - namely the breakdown and lineout - and that it's mostly solid. Those are pretty major problems though and seeing the exact same thing again when we know what happens is, well, ugly. Jones has talked a lot about getting the breakdown right and Borthwick is known as a major lineout nerd, so maybe coaching will fix that. But it seems a pretty big ask to me.
Ollie Devoto - Fair play to young Devoto, it's not every player who manages to get an England cap while 22 years old and very firmly second choice at their club. There is a reason for that of course, it's that most people in that position are flat out not good enough. Now, Devoto has a lot of talent and long term we could be thankful for this, and I'm struggling to say what I'd have done instead, but this really isn't an optimal position to be in and everyone knows it. An early injury could leave us in trouble.
Courtney Lawes - I like Courtney. I'm not sure what all the recent fuss about him I've seen online is about. He's a decent international player at the very least and will probably hit that level against Scotland. The problem here arises from his current form, which has put that slightly at question, and that of Maro Itoje, who has arguably been playing better rugby than every other lock kept. Lawes is a very lucky boy to be there and will need to put in a big performance to justify it. This is assuming he's subbing behind Kruis and Launchbury of course, which isn't guaranteed yet.
The Bad
Alex Goode - Some players leave me mystified as to what's going on that pro coaches value so strongly that us armchair fans discount so utterly. Alex Goode is a prime example. I don't get how anyone can have come to the conclusion that he is an international standard player upon watching his matches at this level. He reads the game very well and possesses good technical skills but he simply isn't athletic enough. His mind writes cheques his body can't cash. That isn't the worst of it though. The worst of it is that because both he and Mike Brown struggle outside of full-back at international level, we are going into this match with no real back three cover. We lost the 2014 Six Nations due to this. An early injury to Watson or Nowell could leave us in the same position again.
Dylan Hartley - This has nothing to do with him being made captain (yet). This is simply about him playing for England to begin with. Right now, on current form, he shouldn't. On current form, he'd have struggled to make the Saxons. He's had one good game since returning from injury. I will be the first to take a gigantic dump over the idea that form should be the most important tool in selection but it's not without its merits. Of course, if you're not picking on form, you're probably picking on overall ability, and Hartley looks pretty short of that too. Based on the last x, the only thing Hartley has over a lot of his new rivals is that he's proven to be military medium at international level, while they could fail. Not to be sniffed at, but pretty grim grounds for inclusion. Add form and ability together and Hartley probably shouldn't be there. What's left? Cohesion? There should be no other Saints' forwards in the starting pack, which proved a problem last Six Nations. Experience? Picking solely on experience has rarely looked that successful to me. Like Lawes, he'll probably do a job, but there's better players in better form getting less gametime as a consequence.
Of course, what tips this from the Ugly category to the Bad is he'll be captain. I'd love to know what his team mates make of it in their heart of hearts; it's hard to respect a captain who doesn't demand a place in the team based solely on his own ability. It's also hard to respect a team mate who lets you down - who knows what they make of his suspension last summer? Are they nervous that he's going to add to his 54 weeks of suspensions this spring? Worried that the scrutiny he'll get from refs will affect him, or that his own poor record will damn them slightly in the ref's eyes before the game even starts? I'd have my doubts there, but they know him better than I do. If these things affect the squad, he will be an actively bad decision.
All in all though, I am reasonably optimistic ahead of the Scotland game and if we perform well enough, the whole tournament. After all, this is roughly the same squad that has been coming close again and again.
In that respect, it's quite a ballsy selection from Jones. By picking the same players, he is inviting us to compare him to Lancaster straight away. Go badly, and it looks very bad. Go well, and there will be comments he's profiting from the squad Lancaster built, although probably not that many given Lancaster's unpopularity upon departure. Not that he's thinking in those terms of course - he simply wants to win.
Whether he will remains to be seen.
Those going home:
Josh Beaumont (Sale Sharks), Luke Cowan-Dickie (Exeter Chiefs), Maro Itoje (Saracens), Matt Kvesic (Gloucester Rugby), Matt Mullan (Wasps), Henry Thomas (Bath Rugby), Elliot Daly (Wasps), Sam Hill (Exeter Chiefs), Semesa Rokoduguni (Bath Rugby), Marland Yarde (Harlequins)
Which means the following have stayed:
Forwards: Dan Cole (Leicester Tigers), Jack Clifford (Harlequins), Jamie George (Saracens), Dylan Hartley (Northampton Saints), James Haskell (Wasps), Paul Hill (Northampton Saints), George Kruis (Saracens), Joe Launchbury (Wasps), Courtney Lawes (Northampton Saints), Joe Marler (Harlequins), Chris Robshaw (Harlequins), Billy Vunipola (Saracens), Mako Vunipola (Saracens)
Backs: Mike Brown (Harlequins), Danny Care (Harlequins), Ollie Devoto (Bath Rugby), Owen Farrell (Saracens), George Ford (Bath Rugby), Alex Goode (Saracens), Jonathan Joseph (Bath Rugby), Jack Nowell (Exeter Chiefs), Anthony Watson (Bath Rugby), Ben Youngs (Leicester Tigers).
With Dylan Hartley named as captain.
While true judgement absolutely has to wait for match day, there's enough going on to start looking at how things are going to shape up. So let's divvy this up.
The Good
Paul Hill - Hill is about to become the second youngest prop to play for England since the start of the professional era (behind David Flatman) and he's completely earned it with his performances for Northampton. I'll admit to expecting Henry Thomas, and Thomas can feel unlucky, but not aggrieved, because on form this is not a controversial call. While it remains to see how Hill goes (there's some nerves personally in sending a guy out with this little experience to play 6N rugby), he has huge potential that he is realising now and it's exciting to see him given a chance so early.
Everyone not mentioned below - That's a lazy way of doing things I'll admit, but the squad is basically good. It's basically Lancaster's squad, which is a teeny bit frustrating but that was a solid international team and a disaster would be very unexpected, while the possibility of defeat lies more in the resurgence Scotland have been threatening for some time. If it stays an idle threat, Eddie Jones will get his reign off to a victorious start and can breathe that little easier.
The Ugly
Robshaw & Haskell - I have nothing major against either player in isolation, although both have flaws that means I can't be too for them either, but put together and you get a few problems. How do we know that? Well, we saw it last 6N. Swapping their shirts isn't going to fix that. I'll stress that I'm only talking about a few problems - namely the breakdown and lineout - and that it's mostly solid. Those are pretty major problems though and seeing the exact same thing again when we know what happens is, well, ugly. Jones has talked a lot about getting the breakdown right and Borthwick is known as a major lineout nerd, so maybe coaching will fix that. But it seems a pretty big ask to me.
Ollie Devoto - Fair play to young Devoto, it's not every player who manages to get an England cap while 22 years old and very firmly second choice at their club. There is a reason for that of course, it's that most people in that position are flat out not good enough. Now, Devoto has a lot of talent and long term we could be thankful for this, and I'm struggling to say what I'd have done instead, but this really isn't an optimal position to be in and everyone knows it. An early injury could leave us in trouble.
Courtney Lawes - I like Courtney. I'm not sure what all the recent fuss about him I've seen online is about. He's a decent international player at the very least and will probably hit that level against Scotland. The problem here arises from his current form, which has put that slightly at question, and that of Maro Itoje, who has arguably been playing better rugby than every other lock kept. Lawes is a very lucky boy to be there and will need to put in a big performance to justify it. This is assuming he's subbing behind Kruis and Launchbury of course, which isn't guaranteed yet.
The Bad
Alex Goode - Some players leave me mystified as to what's going on that pro coaches value so strongly that us armchair fans discount so utterly. Alex Goode is a prime example. I don't get how anyone can have come to the conclusion that he is an international standard player upon watching his matches at this level. He reads the game very well and possesses good technical skills but he simply isn't athletic enough. His mind writes cheques his body can't cash. That isn't the worst of it though. The worst of it is that because both he and Mike Brown struggle outside of full-back at international level, we are going into this match with no real back three cover. We lost the 2014 Six Nations due to this. An early injury to Watson or Nowell could leave us in the same position again.
Dylan Hartley - This has nothing to do with him being made captain (yet). This is simply about him playing for England to begin with. Right now, on current form, he shouldn't. On current form, he'd have struggled to make the Saxons. He's had one good game since returning from injury. I will be the first to take a gigantic dump over the idea that form should be the most important tool in selection but it's not without its merits. Of course, if you're not picking on form, you're probably picking on overall ability, and Hartley looks pretty short of that too. Based on the last x, the only thing Hartley has over a lot of his new rivals is that he's proven to be military medium at international level, while they could fail. Not to be sniffed at, but pretty grim grounds for inclusion. Add form and ability together and Hartley probably shouldn't be there. What's left? Cohesion? There should be no other Saints' forwards in the starting pack, which proved a problem last Six Nations. Experience? Picking solely on experience has rarely looked that successful to me. Like Lawes, he'll probably do a job, but there's better players in better form getting less gametime as a consequence.
Of course, what tips this from the Ugly category to the Bad is he'll be captain. I'd love to know what his team mates make of it in their heart of hearts; it's hard to respect a captain who doesn't demand a place in the team based solely on his own ability. It's also hard to respect a team mate who lets you down - who knows what they make of his suspension last summer? Are they nervous that he's going to add to his 54 weeks of suspensions this spring? Worried that the scrutiny he'll get from refs will affect him, or that his own poor record will damn them slightly in the ref's eyes before the game even starts? I'd have my doubts there, but they know him better than I do. If these things affect the squad, he will be an actively bad decision.
All in all though, I am reasonably optimistic ahead of the Scotland game and if we perform well enough, the whole tournament. After all, this is roughly the same squad that has been coming close again and again.
In that respect, it's quite a ballsy selection from Jones. By picking the same players, he is inviting us to compare him to Lancaster straight away. Go badly, and it looks very bad. Go well, and there will be comments he's profiting from the squad Lancaster built, although probably not that many given Lancaster's unpopularity upon departure. Not that he's thinking in those terms of course - he simply wants to win.
Whether he will remains to be seen.
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