This will be Lancaster's third Six Nations as England head coach. It is hard to write anything about his England side without feeling deja vu for so far, the essentials of that side have not truly changed since day one. Since that unlikely, lucky win in the foulest of weather up in Scotland.
Under Lancaster, England have displayed considerable powers of defensive organisation and mental strength. The word incredible might be better; England have racked up a tidy array of wins seemingly by these two qualities alone. When it comes to the art of avoiding defeat by avoiding mistakes, England acknowledge few equals. The same qualities also make England very proficient at forcing such mistakes from their opposition. Their excellence in these areas have been sufficient to deal with a surprising number of teams.
In other areas however, England have looked a long way from excellent, although they do sometimes strain credibility. Place the England team in front of a tight, disciplined defence, give them the ball, and you could be there all day before a try is scored. Which becomes an issue when facing a team composed enough to deal with England's pressure tactics and gifted enough to crack the defence. There isn't a great amount England can do beyond that. The backline in particular has frequently looked more wooden than Keanu Reeves but it should not go unmentioned that the far more vaunted pack has undergone its own set of troubles. Over the past two years it has misfired regularly either at the lineout, the scrum, the breakdown or in terms of ball carrying. It is, in review, a comprehensive gamut of possible errors.
That it, more or less, the pattern of Lancaster's England. Successful when discipline is enough, not when it's not, unable to offer more. There are some outliers - New Zealand seem to bring out our best, there have been a few incidents of minnow trouncing and sometimes the system has failed spectacularly. But the pattern holds and as such, every tournament brings the question of 'Can England break that pattern and move on?' If we are to accomplish Lancaster's goal of winning the World Cup, we have to, and are running out of time to do so.
Lancaster could be forgiven for cursing his luck going into this tournament. There is an extensive injury list, filled with genuinely important players. The absence of Alex Corbisiero is a huge kick to the teeth and although Joe Marler's coninued improvement lessens the blow, he is not at the same level yet in his scrummaging. Dave Wilson's injury is less newsworthy, but nearly as annoying. Without the Bath tighthead England's resources look very thin. Henry Thomas is a young man of much promise, but he is not here on the back of excellent scrummaging. Until Wilson regains fitness, you would imagine Cole will be played for as long as possible, adding to his already gargantuan workload for club and country. As a platform for attacking rugby, it is not ideal. At least the lineout should function with Hartley at hooker.
The breakdown is a different kettle of fish. Last year, I think, sometime around the Italy game, there was a video with HASK(tm) and Flood going over some of what had gone wrong and right. Numbers at the breakdown was one of the things mentioned with it being acknowledged that England had not sent enough men in. That has been an on and off failing ever since (and was before too) on show as recently as the last Saxons game. You presume they're using the same systems as the senior team. Are we about to see England commit minimum numbers to their own breakdown again? When England undercommit, they get done. There is the mobility and power available to secure the ball, that much is obvious from the most recent New Zealand game, but it is not getting consistently applied. The French may not have Dusautoir but they are still capable of causing major amounts of mischief.
So the platform up front could be shaky. Lancaster will have things to work on in training. Behind the pack, things look very different. The most familiar faces are Danny Care and Owen Farrell, but they are not overly familiar with each other. They have never started a game together before and have racked up less than 140 minutes of gametime as a partnership. The only real continuity in the backline comes in the Farrell-Twelvetrees partnership which has so far notched up five games, including the last three. It seems unlikely that we will see the backline going full tilt as a result.
However, there is nothing new about that. What is new and very laudable, is the danger possessed by each individual player. With the exception of Owen Farrell - and maybe not even that exception - there is no player to which you would wish to offer the gap. Both Burrell and Twelvetrees have power and distribution skills to add to a bit of pace and footwork while the back three is probably the most dangerous fielded by England in a Six Nations game since... since... answers on a postcard please. Nowell is in many ways a similar player to Brown - clever feet, strength and mad determination while Jonny May is just ridiculously fast. This is what many of us have wanted and we should be patient.
So, all in all, it seems unlikely to me that this is the tournament we will see the great step forwards. The platform up front is shakier than one would like and the backline is having to gel together on the job. The half-back partnership is made up of players better known for disappointing fans with their distribution than otherwise. Where we may see a tiny step forwards is that there are more players capable of moments of individual brilliance as the game opens up. Given the pressure England force on teams, seeking to force the game into brief periods of chaos in which they may prosper, this could work out.
But if movement is unsure on England's weaknesses, what then of England's strengths? If Saint-Andre made any prayers towards a choice of opposition for tomorrow, an England backline this callow would have been in his thoughts. In particular, the centre partnership of Twelvetrees and Burrell looks a little suspect. Burrell started the season as a hard hitter who didn't read the game that well. He's been working on it - but as a 12. At 13, as the hinge of the defence, things are different. Against them, France will pit Fofana's dancing feet and Bastareud's supersized prop physique, along with the back three popping up where they will. That could end poorly. Judging from the selection of Brad Barritt on the bench, Lancaster also suspects this as a possibility. It is difficult to see a more obvious reason for him being there. If that gap appears, what happens to the team's confidence? Does it affect their discipline? It seems unlikely but it is possible. This backline might just be the gamble of Lancaster's career.
The problems may remain the same but the factors have changed radically. This could be the most interesting Six Nations for England for some time.
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