Everyone has heard the advice ‘Nothing is ever as good or as
bad as it seems’. I believe it applies well enough to England’s most recent
performance well enough – that was not as bad as some are making out. England
maintained their discipline well and rode out a prolonged period of pressure to
keep Italy’s score down and in particular, the defence was excellent on their
own goal line. They also exerted significant pressure on Italy at times and
while they didn’t score any tries themselves, Italy’s reaction to the pressure
handed penalty after penalty to England. Discipline may not be something that
gets people excited – at least not in a rugby connotation – but it is important.
That England maintained theirs better is to their credit. And, since I’ve often
been a harsh critic of Tom Youngs’ throwing, it should be pointed out that the
lineout went very well.
But if the last game was not as bad, were the games
preceding it as good? To my mind, the level of performance was not dissimilar
to the games against Ireland and France. Greater levels of expectation and the
erosion of patience with some of Lancaster’s choices account for at least some
of the negative reaction – as too does the fact that this is the first time in
a while that England have finished a match less strongly than their opponents.
I would also chalk it down to some of England’s problems looking more prominent
than usual. Just as Ashton’s miss on Fofana sparked a lot of criticism of his
defence which would have been justified for some time, so too did parts of
England’s game. And, partially with the benefit of hindsight, we are talking
problems that have been trailing around for a good long time now. Maybe we
should not be as happy with the Ireland and France victories as we are – or even
those over Scotland and New Zealand. To me, there are three big criticisms that
could be made of England’s performance that could ring true for most of that
period. Those are:
A shaky set-piece
Frail defence in the wide channels
Profligacy with try scoring chances
It was the lineout that put Danny Care under pressure, leading
to his hasty attempt at a box kick, which in turn lead to the Italian try –
ironic considering that was otherwise England’s best lineout performance in
some time. And the period of Italian dominance in the match was greatly
assisted by them turning the screws on the English scrum, just as our half in
the sun was marked by some monster shoves. It was not the first time England’s
scrum creaked this Six Nations, although it was the most pronounced, and the
worst since Joe Marler’s attempt to scrummage against Australia with a ligament
injury. France in particular gave us a hard time, and did so in the lineout too
despite the addition of Dylan Hartley, our more reliable lineout thrower. But
then there has been plenty of wasted and scrappy lineout possession for England
this Six Nations against everyone, as there was against South Africa and New
Zealand last Autumn.
Similarly, there are more than a few instances of England’s
defensive solidity suddenly crumbling out wide. New Zealand had a lot of joy
there, particularly through Cory Jane. Scotland’s two tries largely came
through wing play. Then there’s Fofana’s excellent run, and the Italian wings had
their moments too. I struggle to think
of the last time an opposition team was able to find a hole in England’s
midfield, but the list of occasions in which they found it out wide trips off
the tongue easily. A bit of time considering it adds Australia to the list too.
Finally, there is the matter of scoring tries. Yes, even
against New Zealand and Scotland. Using ESPN’s statistics, England made 10 line
breaks in both games – a rare level of attacking performance, even for the
likes of New Zealand. If you are creating that many holes in the defence, three
or four tries is the least I’d expect.
Really, international sides should be looking to score more when
breaking the defensive line that often. We have now only scored one try in
three test matches. That said, it is difficult to think of England squandering
as many gilt-edged chances against anyone else, as they did against Italy –
even allowing for Waldrom dropping one over the line against Australia. It is
possible I’m being harsh and we weren’t near the try line all that much against
Ireland or France, something my memory
is foggy on, although we had definitely had a few chances. None were taken
though. England are often smart and lively leading up into the 22. Inside the
22, things often go awry and chances go begging.
This should not be taken entirely negative. These flaws have
not stopped us from winning five games on the trot. They do worry me leading up
to Wales and a possible Grand Slam; I imagine they worry Lancaster too. But
they do not make the task impossible. Nor does it mean there are not positives
in terms of our midfield defence, the pressure we exert, our performance at the
breakdown, our discipline and self-belief. There have been moments in the last
three games where it seemed easier for England to lose than to win. Each time
we have prevailed. Whether that will be enough to beat Wales, and whether we
will let the pressure get to us, will be interesting.
In the short term, a lot of this week will be about the
England coaching staff trying to put that right. With the exception of our
second rows, who all seem to be doubtful, England has no new injuries and
should have the team out training on both days. In terms of the set-piece, I
doubt much will change unless injury forces it. The pack is in too much credit
in other areas to tinker with and if we adhere to the EPS, we can’t in most
areas anyway. The only likely change in the pack is Tom Croft, who would
further boost the lineout. Of course, England might find they have to change a
lot in the second row, but that cannot be helped. The presence of Billy
Vunipola would be nice, given the lack of a big ball carrier with Morgan
injured, but it seems unlikely Lancaster will parachute him in. It’s a shame,
as it’s difficult to believe that Morgan’s absence and the drop in try scoring
opportunities is coincidental, but so be it.
In the backline I am also resigned to little change but far
less happy about it. It’s the backs mostly missing tackles out wide, and it’s
the backs mostly butchering try scoring chances. They do put a lot of pressure
on the opposition with a strong midfield defence and good depth positioning
should the opponent choose to kick, but that alone should not be enough. If we
are serious about developing towards winning a World Cup, then we need to be
capable of more. I do worry that Wales will keep calm in possession and work
out ways to get the ball quickly to Cuthbert and North out wide. The game is
likely to be attritional. If Wales can manage the tricky balance between denying
quick ball and keeping their discipline, England could struggle to score points
– something the Welsh rarely struggle with themselves. But if there was to be a
change – Twelvetrees into the centres, Strettle in, Foden involved – we would
have surely seen it against Italy. And we
didn’t.
So it seems that we are set to go into the final match with
the same again, warts and all. Hopefully, it will be enough.
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