For about 30-35 minutes, what I thought was Gatland's plan appeared to be working, and then it started to unravel.
Right now, I would express the Lions' problems as boiling down to two simple things. Both of them have dogged us throughout each Test and from them all sorts of mischief occurs.
Problem 1 is the huge difficulty we are having in getting over the gainline. We are not creating the initial dents that create the breaking up of defensive coherency that allows our backs a real chance to make a linebreak.
Problem 2 is Will Genia, who continues to look the best scrum-half in rugby and the most important man on the pitch. We cannot shackle him and as such the Australians are always a danger.
If we can fix these two things I feel very confident that this will be a Lions series victory. If we fix neither, then hope is not lost as we have shown we can stay close to the Australians even with these issues, but it will be difficult. They were far more disciplined with their kicking in the second test, creating less broken field opportunities for us. Lealiifano looks a far superior kicker than the flakey twins of O'Connor and Beale. They have seen enough of the Lions' lineout to challenge it, something that is unfortunate with Tom Youngs' throwing. They are in a stronger position than they were in the first test when it comes to the basics of their game. Look at how much better the Australian backline seems to be on the pitch and it becomes apparent the Lions need to be far better at the basics - well, the basics other than attacking play in the backs - if they are going to win. Well, we could get a backline that's as likely to score tries, but that requires the forwards to get the Ozzie backline going backwards first. Back to Problem 1.
We can probably actually roll both problems into one single problem. The Big Problem is the pack are not winning enough collisions. We obviously aren't winning enough when carrying the ball. We are not winning enough at the breakdown, in that ball is not coming back quickly on a regular basis. And we are not knocking them back enough in the tackle, which means we limit the amount of pressure we can put on Will Genia at the breakdown. Any player can cause him issues if he has to run backwards from the last ruck, if his team mates are running backwards or lack depth, and the that player has stepped forwards into a guard position. No player is really going to do much if they've only just reset their position as a guard after retreating when Genia starts to run. We could win the series without solving this problem. But it will be difficult and it is certainly not how I would do it.
So bring in Sean O'Brien and Toby Faletau. Not only will they be fresh, but they are the two most brutal ball-carriers and tacklers available in the back row. Bring back Corbisiero too if fit, and not just for his scrummaging; Vunipola's a big beast of a carrier, but he's not as good at Corbisiero and simply setting himself low and driving forwards a few metres. In the centres, Davies has to make way for one of Roberts or Tuilagi. Again, they will be fresh, and again they bring an extra level of brutality. Already that would give the Lions a more imposing look as there's only so much that can be done. Bringing back Mike Phillips would also be a good move; maybe not justified on form, but then neither Youngs nor Murray has a great deal better. Whoever is scrum-half, they should watch plenty of footage of Genia bringing his big runners onto the ball. Short run from the base, commit defender, pop to large man running really fast, repeat.
There is one other possible change I can see that would be useful, and one I hesitate to suggest. But, for all that Dan Cole has been a bit up and down in form, and looks exactly like a guy who's racked up huge amounts of gametime this season, and for all that Adam Jones has been his usual excellent self in the scrum, one guy gets to collisions around the park and the other one doesn't. And right now, we need more men at those collisions. Would I make the change? I'm not sure.
But what I am sure about is that the Lions will have to pick themselves up and go out there and finally cannon the Wallabies out of their way - or there's a good chance they'll lose what is a very winnable tour.
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