Two rounds in...

Pool 1

The Pool of Death looks like its produced an early casualty. Ospreys' failure to pick up a single point - not even a losing bonus point at home to Leinster - has surely extinguished any reality of qualification. That away win has left Leinster in the driving seat and it seems unlikely they will be dislodged. The interesting question is how long Castres will retain interest in the tournament as, judging by previous years, the French champions are very quick to send out their reserves and focus on more important matters. If they do, Northampton will be left with two relatively uninterested sides for the final rounds, which may give them a decent shot at at one of the best runners-up finishes. For that to happen though they need to perform against Leinster in the coming back-to-backs. Anything less than five points from those games is probably the end of the road. While Leinster have taken a step back in quality since the successfully defending the trophy, they remain a difficult opponent and will be eager to kill off Northampton's threat to their first place. Getting either the try bonus point at home, or the losing bonus point in Dublin, would be a serious achievement. At the same time, Ospreys will be taking on Castres, and if the Swansea side doesn't roll over they should take points off of them. There is the quality there, even if Gatland will be worried about the form of some of the Welsh stalwarts, and Castres haven't travelled well to date. When that happens, it's likely to take the number of casualties to two, with the real question being whether Northampton makes it three.

Prediction: Leinster should qualify with ease. Northampton can follow them, but it seems more likely they'll only make the Amlin.

Players to watch out for: Jamie Elliot continues to come of age in a reinvigorated Northampton backline, Jack McGrath is making a serious impact when coming on for Cian Healy and hopefully Eli Walker will get a better chance to shine on the wing for Ospreys in the next two rounds.

Pool 2

Cardiff Blues' shock win against Toulon has blown this pool widen open for the moment. Exeter are the biggest beneficiaries, leading the pool after their hammering of Blues and bonus point loss to Glasgow, but with everyone on six or five points it doesn't mean a great deal. Glasgow and Blues will be licking their lips at the prospect of their back-to-back - a double from either side would put them in a great position. That seems more likely for Glasgow, whose hard nosed cohesiveness looks a better bet than Blues' reliance on a handful of Lions, players whose head often looks to be elsewhere. They should be focused for the Heineken Cup though and a home win each looks the most likely outcome. As for Exeter, as cohesive a side as you'll see anywhere right now, the double-header against Toulon is a huge challenge, the stuff of dreams and nightmares alike. Toulon should blow them away, but they are given to sudden, inexplicable bursts of frailty. Exeter do occasionally get blown away by sides with more quality than them but its becoming rarer and rarer. Again, a pair of home wins would surprise no one. Toulon would probably be on top due to bonus points after that but what would happen next is difficult to call. Realistically, with a visit to Toulon to come in the last two rounds, Cardiff need to be well ahead of the pack to get anywhere. That seems quite unlikely and Exeter might be quite pleased to visit them last as desire levels wane. The west country side can realistically target two wins there. A trip to Sandy Park and the visit of Toulon seems less appealing for Glasgow but does leave them with a fighting chance. As for Toulon, the visit of Cardiff should be a ritual sacrifice to revenge, but visiting Scotstoun looks a banana skin. Whatever way it falls, it seems very plausible that the winner and runner-up will bank low points tallies. Drawing Toulon in your home quarter-final? That's what European competition is all about.

Prediction: If I could accurately call this, I would be too busy fleecing bookies to write this. Toulon are the most likely, as bonus point accumulation should see them overcome slip-ups. Realistically, the match ordering probably says no to Exeter, as if they beat Glasgow in Round 5 its difficult to see the Scots doing them a favour by taking down Toulon in Round 6. However, Glasgow themselves could steal through; every match looks winnable for them.

Players to Watch: A good pool for 8s - Robin Copeland of Cardiff and Dave Ewers of Exeter have both won plenty of plaudits. Glasgow's Jonny Gray is still young for a lock, but has the potential to match his older brother Richie.

Pool 3

This pool is now Toulouse's to do with as they will. It's possibly rash to rule out Saracens returning the favour and picking up the away win, and it is certainly the standout tie in Round 5, but Saracens would have to travel a step further than they have ever done to do it. It would be a victory to turn European rugby's head, and I just don't see it happening if Toulouse show up. Yes, Sarries came close at the death in Wembley, but my impression was that they'd done everything they could. In return, Toulouse had been guilty of some stupid rugby and a number of missed kicks. They have another gear left. Mindyou, Farrell missed plenty of kicks as well, any of which would have made a difference. Arguably Toulouse's biggest threat now is Connacht, who have a taste for giant killing and a very unwelcoming climate, tailor-made by God for tripping up better sides. It is not unconceivable that after round 4, Saracens will be sitting pretty after two big wins against Zebre, while Toulouse have tripped up. Which still leaves the question of that trip to the South of France. Realistically, those two games are the group now. Zebre will fight bravely but lack the quality to get anywhere; few Heineken Cup defenders will say they wouldn't be better off in the Amlin. Connacht would need points from visiting Saracens and Toulouse to progress, and either would be the shock of the competition. Toulouse will qualify in some form - 22 points is now a conservative estimate for them. The only question now is whether Saracens will follow them or even take the top spot. At the start of the tournament, it seemed certain they would qualify as best runners up at least. That home loss has cast that into doubt, and Saracens cannot afford any more slip ups.

Prediction: Toulouse should qualify at a canter. Amusingly, it now seems fairly plausible they'd end up seeing Saracens again - Toulouse should get one of the highest group totals and Saracens are still a strong bet for a best runners up slot. However, they need to start picking up plenty of try bonus points for that to happen. 20 points looks a likely total for them. Historically, that's a fairly nervous number to end on.

Players to Watch: Another 8 - Toulouse's blonde roly-poly Gillian Galan made the benching of Picamoles look completely sensible. Connacht's kiwi openside Jake Heenan is adapting to life in Ireland very well, while Saracens lock George Kruis is continuing to build his case as a potential star.

Pool 4

When people described this as a pool of death, I laughed at them, but no one is laughing at the Stoop right now. Visiting Clermont was always a trip for a losing bonus point and little more, but losing at home to Scarlets is simply not good enough for a club of Harlequins' ambition. The exact ins and outs of Harlequins' sudden spiral into shitness would make a blog post all of its own and, while Quins could still win all of their remaining games, Conor O'Shea would probably have to use voodoo for it to happen. Lots of voodoo. Their trip to Paris next round could be one of the games of the contest. Everything rests on it. It should be noted that, for all their money, Racing Metro don't look too hot at the moment. Win that, and anything looks possible. It should be noted that both Racing and Scarlets have their visit to the home of Mandatory Away Defeats to come. Neither side can afford to rest on their laurels if they are to benefit from their strong start. Racing need to keep piling on Quins' misery; a loss in either back-to-back leaves Metro with only three wins at the end. Scarlets have to win at home against Clermont and pray for a strong finish in the last rounds. However, for all that those two sides are currently on top of the group, the real winner from Harlequins' demise is Clermont. Those two home wins are about as safe an assumption as can be. Clermont are not as strong as they were, but they still remain the team to beat in this group. If Quins and Racing can wreck each other's campaigns, then Clermont should breeze on through.

Prediction: Clermont's incredible home record should see them both rule the group and end the hopes of anyone else joining them in the next round.

Players to Watch: Rhys Priestland's return to form could be a massive boost for Welsh rugby. Harlequins lock Charlie Matthews will have a heavy burden placed on his shoulders when he returns to fitness, but he may just be up to it. Bernard le Roux and Alexandre Lapandry, of Racing and Clermont respectively, will be looking to cement their fledgeling international careers with big performances ahead of the Six Nations.

Pool Five

Another potential group of death when drawn, Pool Five has swung Ulster's way after they inflicted Montpellier's first home defeat of the season. The French club, much thought of as dark horses before the tournament, now faces a very uphill struggle indeed. Their third round visit to Welford Road is now a do-or-die mission. They could do it. They have a hugely physical pack, smart half-backs and an exciting back three, but it is far more likely that Cockerill will have worked out how to suffocate them from Ulster's victory. A great match on paper, but Montpellier's hopes are likely to end soon. Treviso's hopes are dead, if they ever were alive, but they remain a difficult opponent who will be looking to take a scalp as a mark of progress. Leicester will hope Ulster trip up in their back-to-back there as, even with just home pride on the line, beating Montpellier away is not an odds-on proposition for the Tigers. So far Leicester are getting what they need without playing particularly well. They do have a long injury list to return but, given the large international contingent the club will send off, it could still get longer. Leicester's chances of qualifying largely rest on how quickly their key men can regain form and fitness and the visit of Ulster to Welford Road. As for Ulster, there are no excuses if they fail to qualify. Their result in Montpellier came from huge defence and excellent tactical discipline, combined with a highly opportunistic and skillful counter-attacking try. The trio of tactical kickers - Jackson, Pienaar and Payne - is now being used as a weapon and Leicester will already be pondering how to deal with them and the kick chase come round six. But then, the group could already be settled by then, if Ulster are clinical and Leicester are not. If it hasn't been, and if both sides hit their peaks, it promises to be a fantastic encounter.

Prediction: Ulster should win this pool now barring a remarkable Leicester resurgence and there is a home quarter-final on the table if they can take it. As for Leicester, if they do the double over Montpellier, a runners-up spot at least opens up, and if they don't it becomes difficult. I'd probably bet against that double.

Players to Watch: Pablo Matera has yet to play for his new club Leicester, but is worth paying attention to if the Rugby Championship is anything to go by. Ulster's Stuart Olding is possibly the least known of the recent batch of youngsters outside the province, and also possibly the best. Finally, Treviso's Alessandro Zanni always struck me as a player who does not get the praise he deserves.

Pool Six

Another tight pool, but once in which Perpignan will be quite pleased by how things are going. That's largely down to Munster's failure to beat Edinburgh away, which surely any eventual group winner will do, but six points from the first two games is a healthy tally in its own right. Perpignan haven't really done much in the past couple of seasons and while they've got a decent team, it's not amazing. A quarter-final appearance would be very welcome, to state the obvious. Perpignan now have Munster back-to-back in what would have been a heavyweight tie four or so years back. Now its a little middle of the road, with Munster getting by more on sheer will than class these days. If either side can win both,games that might be decisive but neither side has an obvious advantage in personnel. Meanwhile, Gloucester can quietly get about the business of stuffing Edinburgh, a team who are not the strongest these days. Two good wins could put them into pole position ahead of the final straight and give them a chance. That's not a given, not when Laidlaw will kick virtually every chance he gets, but its there to be done. There is the talent in Glaws' ranks, assuming their tight five turns up again. If they do, it seems like the group is preparing for a decisive match in the south of France.

Prediction: Perpignan to win it. Possible runners up place for Gloucester if they turn it on, but more likely to be Munster making it into the Amlin.

Players to Watch: Lock Elliot Stooke looks like he might be become a key member of Gloucester's tight five in the next two to three years months, Munster's loosehead James Cronin is beginning to draw quite a lot of hype, and Edinburgh's Matt Scott has occasionally looked very classy at inside-centre.