I'm going to guess most people reading this aren't too familiar with Scott Sio. That's understandable. I'm a rugby nerd with no life and I'm not too familiar with him either. That may change though.
Over the past five years or so, there has been a familiar train of thought for England fans prior to playing Australia and it centered on the scrum. If we beat them convincingly there, we were going to win; if we didn't, we were going to lose. Usually, we would win. Partially that was down to England having a very good scrum, but the pivotal point was more that Australia were absolutely plumbing the depths of forward play. We were far from the only team to benefit from their weakness during that period after all - just think back to Ireland during the last World Cup. Needless to say, Australia haven't enjoyed this, and there's been some considerable efforts to try and fix this. During the Rugby Championship, it looked like these efforts were paying off, and that brings us back to Scott Sio.
Sio is only 23, but to judge from recent selections, he is now Australia's first choice loosehead prop ahead of James Slipper. He might only be a baby in propping terms but having watched him in the Rugby Championship, he's got a bit about him. He's not the finished article yet, nor is he definitely going to be one of the greats, but I wouldn't mind if he was English. I wouldn't be outstandingly nervous if I was an Australian and considering whether he was fit for carrying a nation's hopes on his shoulders.
Scott Sio is a bit of a poster boy for a resurgent Australia pack. They beat the Bokke in South Africa, they beat the All Blacks. They even got two rolling maul tries against Fiji. I don't know to what extent coach Michael Cheika is inheriting the work of others and how much is his work - he made Leinster very hard-nosed in his time there - but either way, Australia are no longer utterly reliant on their backs.
At the other end of the spectrum from Sio is Stephen Moore, Australia's captain and hooker. He started his international career ten years ago and will earn his hundredth cap this tournament all things being equal. That he has survived and prospered in a way no other Australian forward of his generation has is testament to his ability and he is a keystone of this side.
Surrounding these two men in the tight five are a selection of the slightly journeyman-esque and the slightly Australian. Rob Simmons is an example of the latter and, despite being only 26, the most experienced lock in the Australia camp. He seems to be one of those guys who thrives in the loose and survives in the tight. James Slipper and the injured Will Skelton (now replaced by Sam Carter) also fit that description. In contrast, Dean Mumm spent three years doing the dirty business with Exeter successfully enough. He'll be on the bench, most likely. James Horwill was omitted altogether, despite 61 caps and being the form man from the Rugby Championship. Kane Douglas - who didn't impress Leinster fans at all even before he pleaded to go back home - got the nod instead and will probably join Simmons. Sekope Kepu is likely to be the final piece of the jigsaw at tighthead prop. Nothing about the unit screams danger, but nothing looks weak either. They seem to be at the peak of their powers and if Australia do well this tournament, the country will owe a big debt of thanks to Mario Ledesma, the Argentine scrummaging legend now helping coach the Wallabies.
Behind those men will be Australia's current strongest unit. Michael Hooper has really made a name for himself these past few years, but it was all done in the absence of David Pocock. Cheika has turned the potential selection quandary into a strength by playing the pair of them together and despite both men being officially opensides, their different styles have dovetailed well to date. Hooper is a marauding ball-carrier who loves the loose; Pocock probably the single best player at the breakdown active today. Hooper's decent there too, and Pocock can carry, but each man is concentrating on their strengths here. Hooper's pretty good but, in England's current circumstances, Pocock is the terrifying one. England struggle to protect their own ball at the best of times and Pocock is quite definitely just the worst. A look at the stats here from Green and Gold Rugby show just how much Pocock gets over the ball and just how much damage he does. As someone who loves the breakdown and rugby, it's fantastic to see Pocock playing test rugby again after three years out, but I really fucking wish it was against someone else. Spare a thought for Scott Fardy here, he deserves to be more than the forgotten third wheel; his work rate, grunt, and lineout jumping are the balance this unit needs, and he's performed his role well this summer.
Thankfully if Australia's pack is waxing, their backline is waning a little. Controversy and injury has reaped a bloody toll and the backs that seemed ready to score from anywhere in the first half of this decade look a bit more pedestrian. Will Genia remains scrum-half for now, but even he is not entirely sure how that's come to be, for he's definitely not the same scrum-half that tormented defences back in 2010. Quade Cooper, his old partner-in-cr- no, wait, lets not use that expression with Quade - has fallen even further and will probably be behind Bernard Foley, who's a decent fly-half but not even half the magician that Cooper could be. They'll almost definitely do their job but also almost definitely won't rescue Australia from disaster.
The rest of the backs will probably be made up of Adam Ashley-Cooper and Rob Horne on the wings, Matt Giteau and Tevita Kuridrani in the centres, with Israel Folau at full-back. It's a line up slightly short of game breakers (Folau aside), but one not without its strengths. With the exception of Giteau, that's a number of very solid citizens. Going through them doesn't really appeal. Kicking to them seems even more reckless, with both wingers being difficult to catch out, and Folau insanely dangerous on the counter-attack. It would be nice if we could go around them, as I bet England's wingers are quicker than theirs, but that ideally needs a quick back row to support them, a big centre to fix the drift, and a second playmaker to spread it wide quickly. Australia have that - Kuidrani is very big and Giteau might just be the last of the great 2nd 5/8ths in this increasingly muscled up game. England? Not so much. So we know how Australia will attack (expect Folau to appear outside of 13 a *lot*) - with England, we only know how they'd like to attack.
What England should do, can do, is an open question and one to which I don't have a great answer. I know I can often be a pessimist about English rugby but in this case, it seems well justified to me. They are in better form, strong where we are weak, and without too many obvious weaknesses themselves. The obvious and trite piece of advice for England based on that is 'play out of your skin'. A top level performance from England could still see us hammer into them up front and start dominating the collisions. Tom Wood would be crucial in making that work if he can refind his best form while Joe Launchbury and Ben Morgan urgently need to shake off the rust. Behind the scrum, Henry Slade and Sam Burgess would be my favoured partnership if Joseph isn't available, although the risks are many and obvious.
That said, most teams run risks somewhere in their selection when facing a team of Australia's quality. They have pace, power and precision. They are very strong at the breakdown and in the air with only faint question marks over their set-piece (the lineout faltering against Fiji) and game management. They can score tries through the forwards and maul, they can score them out wide. They're arguably the most in-form team in rugby right now.
It is up to England to prove they belong in this company and stay in the World Cup.
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