Scotland: Stuart Hogg, Sean Maitland, Huw Jones, Alex Dunbar, Tommy Seymour, Finn Russell, Greig Laidlaw (capt), Allan Dell, Fraser Brown, Zander Fagerson, Richie Gray, Jonny Gray, Ryan Wilson, Hamish Watson, Josh Strauss.
Replacements: Ross Ford, Gordon Reid, Simon Berghan, Tim Swinson, John Barclay, Ali Price, Duncan Weir, Mark Bennett.
Ireland: R Kearney; K Earls, G Ringrose, R Henshaw, S Zebo; P Jackson, C Murray; J McGrath, R Best (capt), T Furlong; I Henderson, D Toner; CJ Stander, S O'Brien, J Heaslip.
Replacements: N Scannell, C Healy, U Dillane, J Ryan, J van der Flier, K Marmion, I Keatley, T Bowe.
If I've learned a thing from previous tournaments, its that I will be right far more often than I'm wrong by refusing to get taken in by the idea that this could be Scotland's year. Looking at that Scotland team, I see no reason to change my stance. Scotland have an excellent back line going forwards, genuinely possibly the best in the tournament in that sphere, so I might be wrong if Scotland can start controlling territory and possession. The problem is I don't see this happening. The only area where the Scottish pack look a decent 50-50 bet to come out on top is the lineout, where Ireland have been muck over the last year. Ireland's pack will hope for an edge at the scrums and should triumph in the loose.
Should Ireland start edging it up front, they have the firepower to make it count. Jackson's not as adept a territorial kicker as Sexton but Murray can mind most of that, leaving Jackson to unleash the hounds when its on. The carrying capabilities of that Irish pack should give them a lot of 'on'.For all of Scotland's fine qualities, the main threat to the Irish here is in their own minds. A top Irish performance will beat a top Scottish performance, Murrayfield or not. If they do start slow though and the line out creaks and the wingers aren't collecting the garryowens, maybe doubt will set in. That backline doesn't look the happiest defence I've seen either, which should at least make for an interesting match whatever happens. Should be an Irish victory though. And even if the Scots do win it, they'll probably blow the next match. I'll believe otherwise when they prove me wrong.
England vs France (16.50)
England: Mike Brown; Jonny May, Jonathan Joseph, Owen Farrell, Elliot Daly; George Ford, Ben Youngs; Joe Marler, Dylan Hartley (captain), Dan Cole; Joe Launchbury; Courtney Lawes; Maro Itoje, Tom Wood, Nathan Hughes.
Replacements: Jamie George, Matt Mullan, Kyle Sinckler, Teimana Harrison, James Haskell, Danny Care, Ben Te'o, Jack Nowell.
France: Scott Spedding, Noa Nakaitaci, Remi Lamerat, Gael Fickou, Virimi Vakatawa, Camille Lopez, Baptiste Serin; Cyril Baille, Guilhem Guirado (captain), Uini Atonio, Sebastien Vahaamahina, Yoann Maestri, Damien Chouly, Kevin Gourdon, Louis Picamoles.
Reserves: Clement Maynadier, Rabah Slimani, Xavier Chiocci, Arthur Iturria, Loann Goujon, Maxime Machenaud, Jean Marc Doussain, Yoann Huget.
I put about as much belief in French resurgences as I do Scottish resurgences. That said, that's a pretty serious team and it will come at England with bruising physicality and searing pace. England should be able to cope with that in the forwards at least but if France can get good ball wide quickly, there are some clear physical mismatches. No one sane doubts the ability of the English backs to bring the giant down at least nine times out of ten, but you've got to figure the French will be looking to do it more than nine times. In the French's probable favour there is England's make shift back row, which will prefer to defend narrow. Against is the lack of distribution and subtlety in their team.
I imagine Jones will be looking to play territory first and foremost. The French lineout is nothing great, nor is their back three positioning much either. In contrast, England have some outstanding jumpers and five decent to great tactical kickers. The odds would seem to very much favour England there. If that went right, it would simply be a matter of taking their points when on offer and not allowing France many chances to take theirs. If play slows down, then don't bother trying to get going again, but stick the ball behind them and find out who's fitter and faster. Things could start to get hairy if it turns into an arm wrestle though. Even then, you'd fancy a strong looking England team at home to win.
Italy vs Wales (14.00)
Italy: Edoardo Padovani (Zebre); Giulio Bisegni (Zebre), Tommaso Benvenuti (Treviso), Luke McLean (Treviso), Giovanbattista Venditti (Zebre), Carlo Canna (Zebre), Edoardo Gori (Treviso); Andrea Lovotti (Zebre), Ornel Gega (Treviso), Lorenzo Cittadini (Bayonne), Marco Fuser (Treviso), George Biagi (Zebre), Abraham Steyn (Treviso), Maxime Mata Mbanda (Zebre), Sergio Parisse (Stade Francais Paris, capt).
Replacements: Leonardo Ghiraldini (Toulouse), Sami Panico (Calvisano), Pietro Ceccarelli (Zebre), Joshua Furno (Zebre), Francesco Minto (Treviso), Giorgio Bronzini (Treviso), Tommaso Allan (Treviso), Michele Campagnaro (Exeter Chiefs).
Wales: Leigh Halfpenny (Toulon); George North (Northampton), Jonathan Davies (Scarlets), Scott Williams (Scarlets), Liam Williams (Scarlets); Dan Biggar (Ospreys), Rhys Webb (Ospreys); Nicky Smith (Ospreys), Ken Owens (Scarlets), Samson Lee (Scarlets), Jake Ball (Scarlets), Alun Wyn Jones (Ospreys, capt), Sam Warburton (Cardiff Blues), Justin Tipuric (Ospreys), Ross Moriarty (Gloucester).
Replacements: Scott Baldwin (Ospreys), Rob Evans (Scarlets), Tomas Francis (Exeter Chiefs), Cory Hill (Newport Gwent Dragons), James King (Ospreys), Gareth Davies (Scarlets), Sam Davies (Ospreys), Jamie Roberts (Harlequins).
Its been a while since anyone tried to persuade me of an Italian resurgence. Its also been a while since anyone tried to persuade me that Rob Howley was a good international head coach. The Welsh team feels full of the out-of-form, has-beens and never-will-bes. The quality is there, but in a rather lopsided fact best evidenced by Warburton at 6. Outstanding player that he's capable of being, he's no blindside. The Welsh pack should be formidable in a loose game but may not fare so well in a tight one. Nor do they have Jamie Roberts as a spare battering ram. Wales could win handily or lose handily and neither would surprise me.
Fortunately for them, they're against Italy. I respect O'Shea's ability and reckon there's some decent players there but at the very worst you'd say this was 50-50 and most wouldn't even go that far. In a tight game, you'd bet against their lack of game-winning experience and generalship in the half-backs. If they can get traction against the Welsh set-piece, then maybe it happens, particularly if Venditti has a big game. The greatest source of hope to the Italians though is just how blunt Wales have been at times. Italy need Wales to be wasteful. I don't think they will be that wasteful, but I don't feel particularly confident saying it.
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