Lions squad reaction

Okay, this is a little late, so lets skip to the chase. The midfield. Pretty much no unit does more to dictate how a team plays a game. Lets look at the guys selected by Gatland.

FH: Biggar, Farrell, Sexton
CE: Daly, Davies, Henshaw, Joseph, Payne, Te'o

The commonality is size and aggression. Joseph and Daly are the only two rapiers there. It seems likely neither starts in the centres. Daly's game time has come in the back three and Joseph was strongly rumoured not to be making it only to beat out Ringrose. They took all the big guys they could find who were vaguely up to standard then started looking at other people.

Welcome to Gatlandball.

Which is worrying as all hell.

Reason One - Those lads are big but they're nothing special. There is no prime Roberts or Tuilagi there. Henshaw and Te'o would be the most physical pairing and the All Blacks would respect that pairing, but they'd back themselves to contain it. I'd also back them.

Reason Two - Gatlandball last looked threatening when Wales had a fly-half who could stand flat and deliver. The Lions squad has just one of those players - Sexton. All of the fly-halves with really great timing and zippy passes - Ford, Russell, Jackson - not involved. Farrell might be able to do it on the international arena, what with him having come on a lot since his last meaningful go as an international fly-half, but he might not. Biggar certainly can't. He's proven that with Wales.

The Lions look set to turn up to a gun fight with a knife. A very blunt knife.

Now maybe I'm wrong about Gatland's intentions. Its difficult to believe that with Rob Howley there though. A man doesn't bring his attack coach and chief lieutenant in order to execute a very different plan as a rule.

To be honest, I'm a bit fucked off about it really. I love the Lions, I want them to play great games of rugby and not be more of a source of continual bickering than they have to. I let myself believe that Gatland was willing to adapt to win, and knew that running into a brick wall wouldn't be enough. I also believed that Gatland would recognise that this is no longer 2013 and that Wales aren't top dogs of these isles, they're third at best and arguably fourth.

Instead we get a summer of Gatlandball and people whining about the 12 Welshmen in the squad. I'm not really feeling the urge to be a part of that. I don't really want a Lions squad that does things by the Baabaas ethos, or looks for representative quotas, so I guess I've got to accept days like these, but that doesn't mean I have to like it. Hopefully I'm wrong.

Anyway, rage aside, its a pretty decent squad. The game has kicked on a lot in the last four years around these parts. Hell, most of the players I've complained about would have been totally non-contentious on the last two tours.

All hopes of a Lions victory lies with the pack. If they can beat up the All Black pack then there's a chance. They probably can't, but it is loaded with great forwards and theirs isn't the strongest. I think the Lions can edge this up front which would be no mean feat - just not the walloping needed.

Speaking of the forwards, lets talk about the most controversial omission of the tour; Launchbury. He's arguably been the best forward available to Gatland this Six Nations and the best lock of the last four years. Its a bit bloody bonkers he's not going. That said, its difficult to argue with any of the five going as being bad calls. Personally, I'd have taken one less back row (bye bye Moriarty) and one more second row, what with it being a lot easier for locks to cover the back row than vice versa.

I suspect Launch might go anyway. Its an attritional business at the best of times and Lawes and Henderson have form for breaking the moment someone looks at them. Of course, maybe Gatland will just take Jonny Gray or Donnacha Ryan or someone else. That would be even more mad but hey, this is Gatland.

Being a bit serious for a moment though, this smells pretty bad for Launchbury, as it seems pretty likely that Borthwick agreed with the selection and Launchbury being 4th of England's locks. Its one thing to have Gatland be a nutter and do you out of two Lions tours, but when the England forwards coach has a downer on you... anyway, let this be a lesson to any aspiring young forwards. The only area where Launchbury definitely loses out to his peers is the line out and this is the second tour in succession where lineout ability has been highly valued by the selectors. So practice your jumping. Incidentally, wouldn't be at all surprised to see O'Mahony start for this very reason. Not sure why some are calling him a surprise. In fact, I'd go so far as to say there's no surprise inclusions in that squad. 

Anyway, that's about it. News that Murray might miss the tour due to injury is even more depressing than the midfield selection. Marler and Sinckler are worthy enough calls, but I'm not all that sure someone other than their club coach would have taken both. Launchbury and creative fly-halves aside, there are no really weird omissions. I could write a lot more but I'm fairly sure that injury and form would render it pointless before then anyway. Besides, there's also the England squad to go through...

Full squad list:

Forwards: Rory Best (Ireland), Dan Cole (England), Taulupe Faletau (Wales), Tadhg Furlong (Ireland), Jamie George (England), Iain Henderson (Ireland), Maro Itoje (England), Alun Wyn Jones (Wales), George Kruis (England), Courtney Lawes (England), Joe Marler (England), Jack McGrath (Ireland), Ross Moriarty (Wales), Sean O'Brien (Ireland), Peter O'Mahony (Ireland), Ken Owens (Wales), Kyle Sinckler (England), CJ Stander (Ireland), Justin Tipuric (Wales), Billy Vunipola (England), Mako Vunipola (England), Sam Warburton (Wales)

Backs: Dan Biggar (Wales), Elliot Daly (England), Jonathan Davies (Wales), Owen Farrell (England), Leigh Halfpenny (Wales), Robbie Henshaw (Ireland), Stuart Hogg (Scotland), Jonathan Joseph (England), Conor Murray (Ireland), George North (Wales), Jack Nowell (England), Jared Payne (Ireland), Johnny Sexton (Ireland), Tommy Seymour (Scotland), Ben Te'o (England), Anthony Watson (England), Rhys Webb (Wales), Liam Williams (Wales), Ben Youngs (England)

England Ratings (Wales 2017)

15 - Mike Brown - Acceptable

Brown's best work this match was done digging out his wingers. He rode the tackle well from Daly's hospital pass, he supported the isolated Nowell ably after Daly flubbed a box kick into into Biggar's path, and he made decent ground when Daly and Ford passed the ball to him to escape the kick chase. His surge for the line off of Daly's off-load that led to Youngs' try was vintage Brown too.

That was his main contribution to England's attack though and he lost a ball in contact in a very similar position in the second half. Getting turned over from a kick off in the second half wasn't entirely his fault either but wasn't entirely not his either and along with his clearance kick that went straight out, played part of a prominently bad day for the exit strategy.

14 - Jack Nowell - Good/Very Good

Very secure defensively and a vital source of go forwards in attack, this was one of Nowell's better games for England and he thoroughly justified the decision to start him ahead of May. A lot of Wales' attacks involved giving Liam Williams the ball with space to attack but Williams was only able to get free of Nowell (and his accomplice Joseph) once. Particular kudos for not giving away a dumb penalty when he lifted Williams in the tackle.

He also showed smart feet to escape the kick chase after one good box kick and to draw Samson Lee into a kickable penalty, and a great eye for a gap on a number of occasions when roaming off his wing. Seems to have particularly good chemistry with Ben Youngs. And he did a great job with the already mentioned kick through from Biggar. All in all, a fine day at the office, if maybe short of game changing magic.

13 - Jonathan Joseph - Acceptable/Good

Joseph's game in Jones' regime has been one of defensive excellence and attacking opportunism, seizing what few chances he can to attack space when living off of scraps. This game was a prime example, with Joseph making some very smart decisions and not missing a tackle despite the Welsh traffic. The only arguably bad decision he made was when Liam Williams scored - he probably should have stuck closer to Farrell and trusted his pace to get across if Wales went wide.

He only got to run the ball four times though, which seems a waste of such a talent. He did well enough considering the lack of space opposite him, although he wasted a couple of ball in hand opportunities with a pass over Nowell's head and a pointless kick through. Joseph's lack of attacking opportunity isn't on him but it does limit how well he can play. I wouldn't mind seeing him and Nowell swap positions on occasion; Nowell is better in traffic while Joseph loves the open space.

12 - Owen Farrell - Good

Another player with a definite performance type by now. Farrell will run a few nice lines but mainly float outside Ford as second distributor while hitting hard in defence and kicking most of shots at goal. Farrell's tackling wasn't so much in demand as it is at times with the forwards shouldering most of the burden but he did that and the goal kicking well enough. He also ran the usual nice line off of a line out move, leading fairly directly to Daly's missed penalty attempt, although he did also overrun Ford and turned over possession on occasion.

It was his distribution that was most interesting though. There was one unkind pass to Joseph but for the most part it was quick, accurate, and putting men into space. He showed good vision to call the blindside move that led to Moriarty's late tackle and showed neat quick hands on two occasions to put men into space, once when rescuing a rare bad pass from Ford. A shame he didn't show this when England had an overlap early on and elected to get munched and turned over by Alun Wyn Jones but these things happen. Credit too for his leadership on a team that never panicked in the final stages and for the final pass and kick to seal victory.

11 - Elliot Daly - Acceptable/Good

A harsh rating for the man scoring a game winning try and whose quick hands were pivotal in creating the first. Daly had a good game in attack, popping up to link all over the place. There is a need for a back three playmaker in the modern game and Daly's the closest England have had to one since, uhm, hmm, lets abandon that thought. He also showed good pace to rescue the situation after Biggar intercepted that pass, although I can't help but wonder whether a more experienced back three player would have rescued the ball and presented a platform to clear from.

And here is where I need to be harsh on Daly. His actions there were fine given the circs, but as noted, he did get the team into trouble on a number of occasions. He spent too long considering his actions counter-attacking and nearly put Brown in the morgue, he missed one up and under when contesting with Cuthbert and was bloody lucky that Garces didn't fancy looking at his kick-off chase where he took Cuthbert in the air. A nice chase to keep in Ford's errant kick-off doesn't entirely excuse a sloppy game in terms of back three skills.

10 - George Ford - Good

It was very notable that Wales' main source of attacking yardage involved running at George Ford. The line never broke though and Ford made some good defensive interventions, particularly when chasing back to get Webb after Wales' big break and catching Jon Davies after the centre noticed a lack of ruck guards. Ford will always be something of a vulnerability but is rarely a liability.

Ball in hand, a couple of poor kicks (the kick-off going out and a crap up and under) and a couple of blips in communication with Farrell were the only real blemishes. Elsewise he kept putting his runners into what space could be found and bossed an attack that looked threatening despite a lack of attacking set-piece platform. Also, his late opportunistic kick behind Wales off of loose ball might have gone a little long for perfection's sake, but it still set the platform for the game winning try that he helped create.

9 - Ben Youngs - Absymal/Poor

Lets be nice and talk about the good first. He did (mostly) well ball in hand when directing the attack. Most of his box kicks were decent to good. His (possibly offside) charge out on Alun Wyn Jones produced a try saving knock on. Shame he had to go and get charged down from the resulting clearance opportunity.  Oh, and he scored a try. Can't knock that.

Of course, we might have scored a try earlier if he'd passed to the biggest overlap earlier rather than going for glory. Then there's the pass to Dan Biggar when camped on the Welsh line. The aforementioned charge down was ugly and cost us the try he'd just saved. That box kick from 10 metres behind the maul was weird. Lets not forget that potentially back breaking pass to Dan Biggar for too long either. Or his decision to make an odd little chip from inside our half that allows Dan Biggar to send us back into our 22. Or the decisions to pass to Dan Biggar when on the Welsh try line. Did I mention he threw an intercept pass to Dan Biggar yet? Getting charged down when your protection is poorly set happens (although it happens less if the scrum-half organises it better). Throwing intercept passes on the opposition try line... yeesh.

8 - Nathan Hughes - Acceptable/Good

On first watch, I thought Hughes had done poorly. Watch him get destroyed by Moriarty! And flub his kick returns from the 22 drop outs! And that really bad knock on. And give away a turnover when Tipuric scrags him straight from a scrum. I'm not too impressed with him charging straight into Biggar's chop tackle from a scrum either, I like my 8s to keep their feet after a scrum. There is no question that the Welsh brought huge amounts of physicality and he came off second best from time to time.

On a second watch though, the amount of times he provided valuable go forwards became more apparent, particularly in the first half. Apparently he broke the gain line on 10 of his 22 carries, which sounds about right. There's no opportunity for Youngs to butcher without him grabbing hold of Brown's spill and driving forwards. He seemed to be quieter in the second half going forwards but was also one of the more notable exponents of England's anaemic defensive breakdown effort.

7 - Jack Clifford - Poor

It is no surprise that a ball carrying 8 in less than ideal match condition struggled with the role of being a blast everything in the ruck 7. He did show the ability to blast clear the opposition but struggled with being in the right place in the right time. Kicking the ball out of the ruck after Hughes got chopped down by Biggar was a real low point. More surprising and more disappointing was his complete absence ball in hand. This was presumably part of a game plan as most of his carries were out wide, an area of the pitch England used rarely, but a shame nevertheless.

What Clifford can be proud of is a solid defensive stint complete with plenty of line speed and a decent tackle count. He also showed nice hands when he offloaded before the tackle for Farrell's looping run and twice was the first man in support of an isolated back three player. Clifford may not have had a good day but he showed the ability to be effective and will doubtless get better opportunities in the coming days.

6 - Maro Itoje - Good

Was Itoje really playing 6 this match? On more than one occasion he was scrummaging in the second row and nothing of his performance in the loose bespoke a man playing a different game to his normal one. Itoje carried strongly, tackled strongly, cleared out well and was industrious. He was a key part of our kick chase and showed good maturity in calling a successful lineout by using the other jumpers.

Perhaps it would have been better if he had used himself more. Or taken a more prominent role attacking a creaky Welsh lineout. Itoje also only really started looking for turnovers once Haskell was on and never quite got his body positions right, although he did manage to once pressure Webb into a knock on. In general, Itoje lacked the moments of outstanding momentum changing athleticism that were his trademark last Six Nations. While that's a normal part of a player's growing pains, it should put the kibosh on calls for captaincy for a while.

5 - Courtney Lawes - Very Good

If there is a finer lock in the defensive line in the Six Nations, I have not seen him. Twenty tackles with only one miss only undersells his effectiveness. There were two vital cover tackles when Liam Williams and Scott Williams were threatening to make decisive line breaks and he was part of the big double hit that gave England possession for the final thrust along with Launchbury. He gave away a cheap penalty but other than that, Lawes' defensive game was big. People talk of him as inconsistent, but he's not in defence.

On Saturday though, his attack matched his defence and he was arguably England's most effective carrier, finding shoulders and charging at them hard. His pick up of Launchbury's spill and his basketball pass for Nowell showed his game wasn't all about physicality today either. And his importance at the lineout was demonstrated by him taking the final throw in to secure victory. It would have been nice to see more of him in the rucks but that would be asking for perfection. A very good day indeed.

4 - Joe Launchbury - Very Good/Excellent

Launchbury is the Rolls-Royce of water carriers and Saturday was a demonstration of his full range. There were a number of small errors but that's to be expected when a man makes 23 tackles (no misses), 18 carries, hits gods know how many rucks and is one of the key lineout targets. Two of his carries resulted in a little succour for Wales, with one ball popping backwards to Lawes and another resulting in him getting driven back with England nearly losing the ball. There was also a slight unnecessary penalty under the shadow of the posts and although he did well to fall on Sinckler's rash offload, he wasn't able to get up and protect it from the marauding Welsh. Oh, and he failed to take Wales' final kick-off cleanly. Bad boy.

Elsewise, he was everywhere and he was effective. His charge down started England's first period of pressure, his claiming of Webb's box-kick under pressure from Cuthbert started another, and his part in the double tackle mentioned above started the last one. He was taking on the hardest carries, into two defenders practically everytime, and won more than he lost. Good line speed too in defence. Most impressive was the way he tracked back to help the back three when it was kicked down field despite all that work and punishment..It is difficult to see England winning this match without his vital role in securing English ball and in taking on the ice breaking carries.

3 - Dan Cole - Acceptable/Good

From the busiest member of the pack to the quietest. Cole barely touched the ball and only made 5 tackles in his long shift. He had some decent moments at the ruck - part of the counter-ruck with Itoje that forced Webb's knock on, the turnover that was whistled to Wales due to Haskell's infringement - but not a lot else. He showed good awareness to pick up a ball and pass it to Ford with no scrum-half in sight, but the pass left something to be desired.

Fortunately, tightheads live and die by the scrum and Cole can rest easy there. England won two very well timed penalties deep in their own half and never got badly in trouble. Much as we'd liked to see more of an impact, either there or elsewhere, Cole did what he needed to do as can be seen from his long spell on the pitch.

2 - Dylan Hartley - Acceptable

Hartley's private and candid views on being taken off so early would be interesting to hear. That he seemed to be struggling with the pace of the game a bit can be seen in two desperate tackles on the ankles of Rob Evans and Sam Warburton (the former probably classified as a miss due to it being a tap tackle) when caught a little out of position. He won't have enjoyed getting stripped by Biggar either in his most memorable moment ball in hand. The failure to protect Ben Youngs' box kick properly wasn't exactly glorious either.

The set-piece went strongly so that's a major plus point but it feels more and more likely that Hartley's race is coming to an end. Its a little harsh to be judging him like this when he's been so short of game time (whose fault that though?) but right now he's there because he's captain. Do you credit the captain's leadership for two great escapes when he's not on the field?

1- Joe Marler - Good/Very Good

That the set-piece went well has been established which means extra cookies with Marler's breakfast. He backed that up with a hero's game in defence with 16 tackles and no misses, many of them big momentum stoppers. He was another one who demonstrated great line speed, charging up to hurl himself at people's knees time and time again, with one particularly fine example bring down Cuthbert before the winger could do anything about the front rows facing him.

Marler also had a couple of decent rumbles ball in hand, but didn't touch it much. That does suggest he should have been busy clearing rucks. Given how good England's progress was when they kept it tight, he probably did a decent job, but not entirely so. Nevertheless, a far cry from the player who looked like he wasn't quite fit enough for the job against France.

16 - Jamie George - Good

George was sent on early and put himself about. He was one of England's key carriers when on and did well, although he did lose one ball in contact and was on the end of Wales' big defence at times. He backed this up without ball in hand with 12 tackles and no misses, a busy day for a substitute front row. No obvious weakness in set-piece. His day marches closer.

17 - Matt Mullan - Good

He did make 5 tackles in his nine minutes, which is some solid work and enthusiasm right there.

18 - Kyle Sinckler - Curate's Egg

Sinckler threw one suicidal potentially match losing offload on the Welsh line and won the turnover penalty that saw the match out. Pretty hard to rate that but certainly not a quiet nine minutes.

19 - Tom Wood - N/A

Sent on for two minutes. Made a tackle. Suspect his brief England renaissance might be an end.

20 - James Haskell - Good

Not sure how his 8 carries only yielded 2 metres, but they presented good ball and sucked in Welshmen. Notably only English carrier using footwork before the hit. 9 tackles and great line speed in defence - shades of that Australia tour. Only blemish was a slightly dumb penalty under posts.

21 - Danny Care - Acceptable/Good

Care came on and delivered good quick service to his own team. Can't complain about that. Showed good support of Te'o's break. That he made 16 passes to Youngs' 81 tells you who had the lion's share of the attacking opportunities. One box kick didn't go that far.

22 - Ben Te'o - Good

One fantastic side-stepping run will stay in everyone's memories and it was exactly the contribution you're looking for from an outside back sub. Nice pass to the supporting player. Struggled a bit with Wales' defence on other carries but so did everyone.

23 - Jonny May - Acceptable

He had one job which was make good ground without getting bundled into touch near their line. He managed it, even if I'm not quite sure how on the replay. Can't ask more than that.

Eddie Jones - Good

I'd love to know Jones' self-assessment here. Personally, I think any win in Cardiff is a good one, for all he tried to play down the significance of the venue before the match. 

Nowell for May paid off, no question there. Clifford for Wood is a little harder to answer but, while the veteran may have been sharper at the rucks, there's no guarantee there, and he may well have been less disciplined and effective in defence to boot. Certainly Jones never felt the need to stick Wood on to improve things there. 

There is a lot of talk about the impact of Haskell and George. I'm not sure I buy this. They added fresh physicality and played well, but I don't think they changed the game. England's breakdown became no more secure and the attack no more fluid; if England had kicked all their points in the first half as well as the second, England would have scored 13 points in both halves. That said, maybe Wales score the second crucial try they needed without the fresh bodies.

Care and Te'o were more important substitutions. Youngs' execution simply wasn't at the races today and arguably putting Care on earlier would have resulted in England's second try a lot sooner. Te'o simply poses a different threat in the minds of defenders to Joseph and it seemed to be one the Welsh respected more. Joseph is certainly capable of the break Te'o made though.

In general though, I thought it was a good performance. A lot of people disagree - I think I did immediately after the match - but rewatching it showed England dominating the start and the end of the match and being very niggardly when Wales were on top. Defence and discipline were both notably good - conceding only 6 penalties was a match winner. Something Jones should be relatively pleased with is the set-piece, which was solid in all respects for once. 

In attack, we struggled at times with the ferocious Welsh defence but the team never panicked. It trusted itself to keep making progress ball in hand - and it did - and that trust is a credit to the coaches. Quick ball and relentless pressure forced the line to crack. We didn't make it break enough to create genuine opportunities for the strike runners though and there's something to work on there, with ball protection in contact something the players didn't do well enough. We are lucky that the Welsh kept the ball infield when clearing their lines and allowed us to correct our mistakes - but there was no luck in putting the Welsh on the back foot to begin with.

First Round Preview

Scotland vs Ireland (14.25)

Scotland: Stuart Hogg, Sean Maitland, Huw Jones, Alex Dunbar, Tommy Seymour, Finn Russell, Greig Laidlaw (capt), Allan Dell, Fraser Brown, Zander Fagerson, Richie Gray, Jonny Gray, Ryan Wilson, Hamish Watson, Josh Strauss.

Replacements: Ross Ford, Gordon Reid, Simon Berghan, Tim Swinson, John Barclay, Ali Price, Duncan Weir, Mark Bennett.

Ireland: R Kearney; K Earls, G Ringrose, R Henshaw, S Zebo; P Jackson, C Murray; J McGrath, R Best (capt), T Furlong; I Henderson, D Toner; CJ Stander, S O'Brien, J Heaslip.

Replacements: N Scannell, C Healy, U Dillane, J Ryan, J van der Flier, K Marmion, I Keatley, T Bowe.

If I've learned a thing from previous tournaments, its that I will be right far more often than I'm wrong by refusing to get taken in by the idea that this could be Scotland's year. Looking at that Scotland team, I see no reason to change my stance. Scotland have an excellent back line going forwards, genuinely possibly the best in the tournament in that sphere, so I might be wrong if Scotland can start controlling territory and possession. The problem is I don't see this happening. The only area where the Scottish pack look a decent 50-50 bet to come out on top is the lineout, where Ireland have been muck over the last year. Ireland's pack will hope for an edge at the scrums and should triumph in the loose.

Should Ireland start edging it up front, they have the firepower to make it count. Jackson's not as adept a territorial kicker as Sexton but Murray can mind most of that, leaving Jackson to unleash the hounds when its on. The carrying capabilities of that Irish pack should give them a lot of 'on'.For all of Scotland's fine qualities, the main threat to the Irish here is in their own minds. A top Irish performance will beat a top Scottish performance, Murrayfield or not. If they do start slow though and the line out creaks and the wingers aren't collecting the garryowens, maybe doubt will set in. That backline doesn't look the happiest defence I've seen either, which should at least make for an interesting match whatever happens. Should be an Irish victory though. And even if the Scots do win it, they'll probably blow the next match. I'll believe otherwise when they prove me wrong.

England vs France (16.50)

England: Mike Brown; Jonny May, Jonathan Joseph, Owen Farrell, Elliot Daly; George Ford, Ben Youngs; Joe Marler, Dylan Hartley (captain), Dan Cole; Joe Launchbury; Courtney Lawes; Maro Itoje, Tom Wood, Nathan Hughes.

Replacements: Jamie George, Matt Mullan, Kyle Sinckler, Teimana Harrison, James Haskell, Danny Care, Ben Te'o, Jack Nowell.

France: Scott Spedding, Noa Nakaitaci, Remi Lamerat, Gael Fickou, Virimi Vakatawa, Camille Lopez, Baptiste Serin; Cyril Baille, Guilhem Guirado (captain), Uini Atonio, Sebastien Vahaamahina, Yoann Maestri, Damien Chouly, Kevin Gourdon, Louis Picamoles.

Reserves: Clement Maynadier, Rabah Slimani, Xavier Chiocci, Arthur Iturria, Loann Goujon, Maxime Machenaud, Jean Marc Doussain, Yoann Huget.

I put about as much belief in French resurgences as I do Scottish resurgences. That said, that's a pretty serious team and it will come at England with bruising physicality and searing pace. England should be able to cope with that in the forwards at least but if France can get good ball wide quickly, there are some clear physical mismatches. No one sane doubts the ability of the English backs to bring the giant down at least nine times out of ten, but you've got to figure the French will be looking to do it more than nine times. In the French's probable favour there is England's make shift back row, which will prefer to defend narrow. Against is the lack of distribution and subtlety in their team. 

I imagine Jones will be looking to play territory first and foremost. The French lineout is nothing great, nor is their back three positioning much either. In contrast, England have some outstanding jumpers and five decent to great tactical kickers. The odds would seem to very much favour England there. If that went right, it would simply be a matter of taking their points when on offer and not allowing France many chances to take theirs. If play slows down, then don't bother trying to get going again, but stick the ball behind them and find out who's fitter and faster. Things could start to get hairy if it turns into an arm wrestle though. Even then, you'd fancy a strong looking England team at home to win.

Italy vs Wales (14.00)

Italy: Edoardo Padovani (Zebre); Giulio Bisegni (Zebre), Tommaso Benvenuti (Treviso), Luke McLean (Treviso), Giovanbattista Venditti (Zebre), Carlo Canna (Zebre), Edoardo Gori (Treviso); Andrea Lovotti (Zebre), Ornel Gega (Treviso), Lorenzo Cittadini (Bayonne), Marco Fuser (Treviso), George Biagi (Zebre), Abraham Steyn (Treviso), Maxime Mata Mbanda (Zebre), Sergio Parisse (Stade Francais Paris, capt).

Replacements: Leonardo Ghiraldini (Toulouse), Sami Panico (Calvisano), Pietro Ceccarelli (Zebre), Joshua Furno (Zebre), Francesco Minto (Treviso), Giorgio Bronzini (Treviso), Tommaso Allan (Treviso), Michele Campagnaro (Exeter Chiefs).

Wales: Leigh Halfpenny (Toulon); George North (Northampton), Jonathan Davies (Scarlets), Scott Williams (Scarlets), Liam Williams (Scarlets); Dan Biggar (Ospreys), Rhys Webb (Ospreys); Nicky Smith (Ospreys), Ken Owens (Scarlets), Samson Lee (Scarlets), Jake Ball (Scarlets), Alun Wyn Jones (Ospreys, capt), Sam Warburton (Cardiff Blues), Justin Tipuric (Ospreys), Ross Moriarty (Gloucester).

Replacements: Scott Baldwin (Ospreys), Rob Evans (Scarlets), Tomas Francis (Exeter Chiefs), Cory Hill (Newport Gwent Dragons), James King (Ospreys), Gareth Davies (Scarlets), Sam Davies (Ospreys), Jamie Roberts (Harlequins).

Its been a while since anyone tried to persuade me of an Italian resurgence. Its also been a while since anyone tried to persuade me that Rob Howley was a good international head coach. The Welsh team feels full of the out-of-form, has-beens and never-will-bes. The quality is there, but in a rather lopsided fact best evidenced by Warburton at 6. Outstanding player that he's capable of being, he's no blindside. The Welsh pack should be formidable in a loose game but may not fare so well in a tight one. Nor do they have Jamie Roberts as a spare battering ram. Wales could win handily or lose handily and neither would surprise me.

Fortunately for them, they're against Italy. I respect O'Shea's ability and reckon there's some decent players there but at the very worst you'd say this was 50-50 and most wouldn't even go that far. In a tight game, you'd bet against their lack of game-winning experience and generalship in the half-backs. If they can get traction against the Welsh set-piece, then maybe it happens, particularly if Venditti has a big game. The greatest source of hope to the Italians though is just how blunt Wales have been at times. Italy need Wales to be wasteful. I don't think they will be that wasteful, but I don't feel particularly confident saying it.

England Six Nations Preview

With a squad named, its time to start getting excited. Particularly as it was named about a week ago. For those who can't remember it, this is the squad:

Catt, Genge, Marler, Mullan
Cole, Sinckler
Hartley, George, Taylor
Ewels, Itoje, Kruis, Launchbury, Lawes
Clifford, Harrison, Haskell, Hughes, Williams, Wood

Youngs, Care
Ford, Farrell, Lozowski
Daly, Joseph, Slade, Te'o
May, Nowell, Watson, Yarde
Brown
To a certain extent, there's not a lot to say here. Its very much a business as usual squad with everyone bar Catt, Williams and Lozowski previously involved. However, there's a few points of interest.

Uncle Eddie clearly wants Marler in the team asap and isn't sure when that will be, but the inclusion of both Genge and Catt points to an interesting call. Genge had one of the shooting stars of Jones' reign until missing the most recent training squad with Catt getting the nod. I've no idea who'll get the nod for the bench if Marler does miss some games but in any case, spare a thought for Paul Hill, another of the shooting stars who's now not making the squad at all. That might be a sign of Genge's fate as well - a team looking for more experienced scrummagers. We'll see. If Genge does join Hill in the cold, it wouldn't be the worst thing. Sparing young props heavy work loads is always a good thing and so too is Jones' philosophy of making the kids work for it.

Speaking of kids working for it, Ewels can congratulate himself on a job well done in making his first Six Nations squad. He's probably going to be holding tackle bags most of the time, fitness permitting, but its still a big step up for him. It also hints at the possibility of a big step back for Itoje - why else do you need five locks? In Robshaw's absence, Itoje is almost certainly the safest bet for England's blindside and heaven knows the flankers in the squad aren't making a man excited to play them. You'd imagine Itoje would end up besides Hughes in that case. That's a lot of raw talent but I wouldn't be surprised if come mid-point in the Six Nations, we were all pining for Robshaw and Vunipola.

The general assumption in the papers seems to be that May and Nowell are in pole position for starting shirts, with Watson's spell out costing him in the pecking order. If so, this opens up some interesting questions about who gets to sit on the bench. Te'o and Watson would seem to be the obvious pairing, covering everything and offering a few changes in plan. Jones doesn't always put too much stock in that sort of thing though and both Daly and Slade have displayed added versatility under him. In short, it could be anyone.

In any case, the real enemy this window is complacency. Which is not to dismiss the other teams - Ireland in Dublin should be a real challenge - or the impact of the injured. Those things matter a lot. However, Jones' reign to date has revealed an England team whose peak performance allows them to cope with those things (although they are yet to play an in form Ireland). The question is how long can they keep this up?

My prediction for this spring would be four wins and a coin toss as to who takes the Grand Slam in Dublin. Welsh folk may bristle at that one but with Gatland away, I reckon it would be an upset for them to win, Cardiff or no. And its now an upset when England lose to not-NZ in Twickenham until proven otherwise. Soon we'll see how true this holds.

p.s.

I'm a big fan of the U20 6N as a way to spend a Friday night. I haven't been paying too much attention to the squad this time round, so I'm just going to link you a pretty good review of England's squad I found elsewhere.

Ten things that really annoy me on a rugby pitch

There are few things more satisfying than playing a good game of rugby and one of them's playing an awful game where the other team don't have a hope. My uncanny ability to pull a muscle has so far limited the amount of this I've done so far this season but I've managed my latest comeback and my gods it is good.

However, there are a few niggling concerns. A few things that mar the enjoyment. Frustrations that I believe others can share, not least because most people reading this play with me and I'm fucking atrocious. So - tongue firmly in cheek - the ten things that annoy me most on a rugby pitch.

1) Getting up from a ruck and seeing the backs drop it/slice it out on the full/give an intercept pass/everything else negative. Bonus marks if it wasn't actually a back but rather a forward who's convinced he has mad skillz. 

2) Every time someone gets a bit roughed up - high tackle, collision off the ball, that sort of thing - and someone runs in to start a pushing match. Not to punch them but just to have a good push. Half the time whoever did it is a good ten yards away from what happened by the time they got there. 

3) Being about to get up from a ruck only to have next phase's pick and go land right on you because someone decided they could run upright into the biggest player around. They couldn't and now both of them are about to compress your kidneys. 

4) Picture it. Its been raining for three days before the game and there's somehow another three days worth of rain coming down right now. You've seen ploughed fields more suitable for rugby and the ball's greasier than cheap chicken. Someone's made a break. He's got support. The full-back tackles him and, rather than go to ground and trust his team to ruck over, he goes for the death or glory offload. Needless to say, there won't be glory but, honestly, even if there was, I'd still be annoyed. Taking high risk moves because they're more fun it part and parcel of social rugby but can people at least wait for good conditions before pretending they're Fijian?

5) On a similar note, getting up from a ruck to see your team halfway up the pitch with a gilt edged opportunity only to watch them somehow bollocks it up. Not only did they not get the try, you've now got to sprint up there instead of casually sauntering back to the halfway line and the water bottles.

6) There's also the annoyance of getting up from a ruck and seeing that the ball's been dotted down without a clue how it happened. Couldn't they have waited that extra few seconds for you to share in the emotional thrill? Also, for some strange reason, these always seem to involve thirty yard runs by props, even if the last ruck was five yards away from the line.

7) Poorly thought out tap penalty moves. We've all seen them, we all know them, we all hate them. Bonus points if the intended receiver wanders off into the backline and the scrum-half panics and picks the fly-half as a crash ball option after a good three seconds of dithering. Or the receiver is already level with the scrum-half by the time he's tapped the ball. Or when a forward takes it and thinks he'll dummy a pass and go himself. Or...

8) I hate dogging on refs. They come along and get it in the ear just so I can have a good time. That's not right really. However, sometimes we do the things we hate, because some refs don't make it easy for themselves. The ref I've come to dread the most is young, keen, knows the laws really well and has great eyesight. The average game of rugby at any level has a potential infringement every five seconds, nevermind at my level. A good ref knows what's important and what's not. Pedantic refs who do not are a misery, particularly when they don't have a sense of humour. No one plays rugby to have a penalty every thirty seconds.

9) Quick throw ins. There are two types of quick throw ins in this world. The first is when there's no one around at all and the forwards have to sprint up the pitch rather than having their well deserved break. The second is when there is someone around and the poor receiver is going to get buried. By some strange quirk of fate, the former only ever seems to happen to the opposition and the latter only ever seems to happen to my team. I wouldn't be quite so annoyed by them if it was the other way around.

10) Doing these things myself. It is easy to be forgiving and slap your team mate on the back and say "Don't worry, heads up". Its a lot harder to be forgiving when you're the knucklehead fucking up everything for everyone else. So the worst thing really is doing things like this myself. Admittedly my style of play means a lot of them just don't happen very often, but I still remember the time I threw a really sloppy offload...

... when already over the try line.

But I'm sure scrum-halves have a very different list of annoyances which contain things I am guilty of.

Anyway. There we go. I apologise for wasting two minutes of your life.

Eddie and Clive

In proof that even broken clocks get it right twice a day, the Mail have posted a pretty interesting interview of Eddie Jones with Lord Baldermort asking the questions. Its well worth reading as a rough guide to what we may expect this year and going forwards from England. For those who don't want to, here's a rough summary of the important bits.

1) The Lions tour will impact on the year

Yes, I know, not a surprise, but Eddie's talking about losing 10-15 players for the Summer and maybe resting them in the Autumn as well. The latter bit's not usual if memory serves but makes sense. The players are taking on huge workloads and if we want them to be around for the World Cup, something has to give. Better to do it at a time of the coach's choosing when they need it most.

What there isn't is any talk of resting front line players who don't make the Lions, like Lancaster did in 2013. This seems understandable if England are going to get stripped as bare as Eddie and anyone who doesn't believe Gatland is totally biased expect. There'll need to be as much experience around as possible to give the many noobs a chance of making it. Eddie talks up the two windows post-Six Nations as a chance to produce great 3rd and 4th choice players and says "If we can sit down in the last week of November and say we have got 45 guys who can play Test rugby at the level that will be required at the 2019 World Cup, then this year will have been an enormous year for us."

2) Two years, two years and three months; the projects in winning a World Cup

When challenged on whether Hartley is a World Cup winning captain, Eddie said he saw the World Cup as three projects. The first two years, the next two years, then the last three months. Right now Eddie's focused on the first two years and says Hartley will do a fantastic job for those. Then they assess what happens for the next two.

Reading between the lines, we can expect a few changes to the team once we've exited the first project. I'm not going to bet on Hartley being one of the victims, but I wouldn't bet against it either. Other obvious potential victims include Haskshaw, Mike Brown, and one of Ford and Farrell. That includes a lot of Eddie's current leadership group so I'm definitely not betting on all of them going but it seems likely that the first project involves grooming new leaders.

3) Ideas from the players

Speaking of leadership, Eddie said that he wants 80% of the ideas coming from the players by the World Cup, and only 20% from the coaches. He reckons its currently 50-50 and that a year ago it was all from the coaches. As Eddie says, "the players must own the game". Its great to hear him target this, but looking at the current England team, you wonder how many of them are genuinely capable of doing that. This could play a big part in shaping who's part of the next England team and who's not.

4) Beating New Zealand

Eddie tried playing the Maori All Blacks with a lot of running the ball and he tried it with a lot of structured play. He lost the first 60-15 and the second 19-18. So cancel all thoughts of trying to beat them at their own game.

The subject of beating New Zealand comes up a lot in this interview. His assessment of the situation is as follows:

"The only way you beat them is to minimise that [unstructured play], don’t give them any loose kicks or loose ball. You don’t necessarily have to play long phases against them and if you kick, make sure you have got a good kick-chase so they have to kick the ball back to you. You minimise the situations they enjoy most and maximise those they enjoy least."

Its possible to see this as a call for very boring rugby and it may turn out that way, but that runs counter to everything we've seen of England's ruthlessness in going wide when its on this year. What it is definitely talking about is suffocating them and giving them no chance for unstructured play. That is only sensible.

He also talks about having a forward pack that has pace and power as an area where England can potentially achieve an advantage over New Zealand. We've seen him go straight for adding that with newcomers like Itoje, Clifford, George, Genge, Hill, Sinckler and on and on. Interestingly though he doesn't seem too bothered that his backs aren't physically imposing. Bluff or fact?

The only sobering note is that Eddie emphasises the importance of tempo but agrees with Lord Baldermort's statement that many clubs are playing slow rugby. When asked if he can the need for tempo across to the clubs, Eddie's response is: "No we can’t and we are not really going to try." Lets hope the clubs see the light on their own; another year of frustration dealing with the underfunded Celts in Europe might have been a step forwards.

5) The best is yet to come

Finally, Eddie says England haven't played as well as they can. That's obvious to everyone who can see lightening and hear thunder but it is good to see the coach acknowledge it and point out areas of improvement. The set-piece, defence and attack are all mentioned - or as its otherwise known, rugby - but he talks about the set-piece most. And as he says, there's still a lot of players developing.

What we can expect, therefore, hopefully, is an influx of pace and power (particularly in the pack) starting this summer but only really graduating in 2018. Once we get the pack, once we get the platform, that's when the attacking game can really take off. And from there? Victory. Hopefully.

I still remain slightly sceptical of Eddie, largely because English rugby never has nice things so he can't be a nice thing. It all makes sense so far though. Here's hoping it doesn't stop - we certainly have reason to hope.

England AI Preview

Lets start this with an odd statement: the more injuries England get, the more interested I am in these Autumn Internationals.

Not that I lacked interest, you understand. All international rugby is good international rugby and England have a complete an unbeaten calender year. The thing is that this year has come a little easy by the standards of international rugby. England’s main opponents in that time period - Wales, Ireland, Australia - were all below their usual standard. I don’t want to dismiss the impact of England’s pressure game and ferocity on them - good teams make other teams look bad - but all three of them had recently shown they could play better at this level.

It is a firm belief of mine that looking good as a coach is relatively easy when things are going well. Eddie Jones inherited a strong team where the main problems were morale, direction, and that last little bit of star quality. All he had to do was give them the first two and reap a waiting harvest with the latter; England have been crying out for a tight five ball carrier like Maro Itoje for a long, long time. Things have, by and large, gone well for him.

Not so much now. England had been fairly injury free in the first choice 23 since Jones took over. The loss of the first choice locks and wingers, as well as the injury to Haskell and just about everyone who may have replaced him, puts a very different complexion on things. And as a cherry on top, Joseph has dropped onto the bench amid reports of a groin injury. 

I don’t want to overdo this argument. Jones’ unfamiliarity with his squad led him to a couple of iffy choices down in Australia and he made his own good fortune with his ruthlessness in changing what wasn’t working. And by and large, the men coming into the squad as injury replacements are highly talented players in their own right. This is a weakened England team but not a weak one. Nevertheless, I feel that we’ll have a better idea of just how good an England coach Jones is after this autumn.

The injury count could have been worse mind. There were doubts over Mako Vunipola and Hartley coming into this series - the presence of Tommy Taylor in the 25 squad prior to the final cull testament to the latter. Instead they’ll line up with Dan Cole against South Africa. On the bench are men who could have replaced them with zero fuss and will replace them with zero fuss during the second half. I’d even go so far as to say I’d prefer if Marler and George replaced Vunipola and Hartley in the starting team full stop. Kyle Sinckler has earned far less trust and it will be interesting to see how he goes. He’s an international class athlete - the question is whether he’s an international class prop. Don’t be surprised if Dan Cole plays a very long shift.

Joe Launchbury and Courtney Lawes fall more into the trusted variety of replacement. Indeed, I wish Jones played Launchbury a lot more. However, with Itoje being the all action man who has sparked England’s renaissance, and Kruis installed as lineout general, it will be a difficult task for man to keep their shirt. Dave Attwood returns to the bench and it will be interesting to see how he slots into Jones’ game plan. I came to the conclusion that Attwood simply wasn’t mobile enough for international rugby when Lancaster was in charge; others saw Attwood as harshly done by and providing the bulk that could have transformed England’s pack. The two opinions aren’t completely mutually exclusive and if Jones wants Attwood to cover less ground, we could see the best of the Bath lock.

In the back row, Tom Wood completes what was a very unlikely seeming reunion with Robshaw and Billy Vunipola at the start of Jones’ tenure. This is the man described by Uncle Eddie as ‘average’ and the man had a point. The rebuttal is that being an average international player is incredibly difficult, as witnessed by the lack of alternatives. He’s been fortunate with injury but I have a sneaking suspicion that Wood may very well take his chance. He won’t be surprised by the pace of the game, like Harrison was in Australia, and was always at his best playing a straight forwards abrasive game. He won’t hit as hard as Haskell but his decision making at the breakdown is better. On the bench, Nathan Hughes gets his chance despite reports of being underwhelming for Wasps. Neither stardom nor failure would surprise me if/when he gets onto the pitch. He has the power to be a star; his inexperience and lack of discipline could see him fail. I suspect he’ll be somewhere in the middle.

The 9-10-12 combo remains set and could do so for some time. Many England fans cry out for deliverance from Ben Youngs, refusing to believe a scrum-half with such a comparatively poor pass and tardy decision making at the breakdown can't be good enough. I disagree - for me he's a game breaker around the fringes and does a lot of the simple things well enough. Whatever the truth is, Youngs' service hasn't been slowing down George Ford too much. Ford looked like the heir to Carter as the world's next great fly-half during the tour to Australia. Everybody knows about his skill in opening up defences but his ability to look up and put a team all the way back into their half with his boot is becoming more and more talked about. Whether he could be the complete package and kicks the goals will remain unproven for some with Farrell there. When things have been going well, this trio have been devastating, but whether it will work if the pack's forwards momentum goes missing and someone needs to physically challenge the line remains to be seen.

It certainly won't be Elliot Daly physically challenging the line. Anyone who isn't excited to see Daly finally getting his chance lacks either eyes or soul, but I think we can all agree out and out power isn't in his arsenal. Part of me expects to be disappointed; Joseph hasn't been able to find much space in this system and Daly is similar enough that I don't see things being too much different. Part of me expects Daly to find more gaps because opponents won't be watching him as closely. Yes, the fence is very comfy. In any case, the real questions about Daly are what happens when the other team has the ball. There's no doubt he can tackle but he hasn't proven that he's got the same judgement and defensive positioning as Joseph, who's quietly proven himself a very good international defender. If things go wrong, expect to see Joseph sprang from the bench early.

On the wings we have Not-Semesa Rokoduguni and Not-Semesa Rokoduguni. The exclusion of Rokoduguni is mystifying. He's the most powerful winger England have, arguably the best pure try scorer, a guy who can shut down prime Savea in defence, and seemingly without flaw at Premiership level. Whatever Jones is seeing that the rest of us don't, I'd love to know. Yarde and May aren't bad players by any stretch but better than Rokoduguni? In any case, they have the start and if they play well they can stay in the line up when Watson and Nowell return, particularly if Mike Brown continues to underwhelm. That will involve doing better than Watson and Nowell did with their defensive duties in the summer and if the team continues to expose their wings to so many 2 on 1s, it will be very difficult for them. If it does go very difficult, it wouldn't be a surprise to see Joseph brought on here.

This leaves one player unmentioned: Ben Te'o. I've been a fan of his since watching him in a Leinster shirt and with Tuilagi simply unable to stay fit, Te'o is possibly England's only international class battering ram. There's no guarantees he'll step up on the next level up - I reckon he will though and, if the pack does struggle with no Itoje, he could be crucial in this match. I was going to talk a little about player eligibility and compare the situation with him and Hughes but then I realised I don't care. They're playing, that's the main thing. 

And they're playing in a decent team. This is a pleasant new situation where I look at an England team and I look at the SH team in question and I don't think there's much to pick in terms of talent. England have home advantage, South Africa have the confidence that comes from knowing you've got an opponent's number. Everything points to a nice close match - everything except the coaching staffs. Allister Coetzee hasn't looked at home in international rugby so far. Eddie Jones? Well, he's looked quite good so far.

Time to find out just how good he is.